GEOPOLITICA DEL MONDO MODERNO

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Giacomo Pratali - page 9

Giacomo Pratali has 297 articles published.

Paris under siege: European 9/11

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At least 127 killed and 197 injured, including no less than 80 seriously wounded. These are dramatic numbers, which are increasing hour by hour, of bombings attacks, on the cry of “it’s for Syria” or “Allahu Akbar” that shook Paris Friday, 13 November. 7 actions accomplished in the heart of the French capital claimed by Islamic State.
The most important at the Bataclan theatre, where about 1,500 people were attending a rock concert. Here, three terrorists went into action, initially taking about a hundred hostages, while 30 was able to immediately escape. Attackers then fired on the crowd. The police raid during night provoked their killing, but also the dramatic discovery of 118 corpses.

This is the most serious incident. But terror lasted for several hours, during which there was fear of further actions. And the high alert, which was followed by the mobilization of more than 1,500 units of the French army, involved several locations in the center of Paris. And blood and victims have consequently risen. 18 killed at La Belle Equipe bar, 15 at Le Carillon bar and Le Petit Cambodge restaurant, 5 at Pizzeria La Casa Nostra, 3 outside Stade France, where, during the friendly match France-Germany, three strong explosions, caused by as many explosions, were heard. On the other side, in addition to the three terrorists killed at the Bataclan, seven blew themselves up, also around 15 and 17 years old.

French President Francois Hollande, who attended match, was immediately cleared out for security reasons and called an extraordinary Council of Ministers. During the speech to the Frech People, he asked the Parisians to open their homes and do not lack the solidarity towards those who was involved. Moreover, declared a “alpha” high alert and announced partial closure and intensification of border controls (in the morning was closed on Mont Blanc pass linking Italy and France).

“As I speak, terrorist attacks of unprecedented proportions are underway in the Paris area. Two decisions will be taken: a state of emergency will be declared, which means that some places will be closed, traffic may be banned, and there will also be searches which may be decided throughout Île-de-France [greater Paris]. The state of emergency will be proclaimed throughout the territory [of France]. The second decision I have made is the closure of borders. We must ensure that no one enters to commit any crimes and that those who have committed the crimes that we have unfortunately seen can also be arrested if they should leave the territory. “ he said.

 

Giacomo Pratali

 

Egitto aereo caduto: gli effetti socioeconomici

Medio oriente – Africa di

La decisione di Vladimir Putin di interrompere i voli sull’Egitto. La conferma dell’intelligence britannica che il volo 7K9268 caduto il 31 ottobre sia stato fatto esplodere da una bomba. La rivendicazione dello Stato Islamico e l’esultanza sul web di siti vicini al Daesh. L’apertura all’ipotesi attentato fatta dal governo de Il Cairo. L’aereo schiantatosi sul Sinai, nel quale sono morte 224 persone, rischia di destabilizzare le istituzioni e l’economia di un Paese già fragile.

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Già nel corso della scorsa estate, la strategia dei gruppi jihadisti del Sinai, affiliati al Califfato, era chiara: colpire gli obiettivi internazionali presenti in Egitto, in modo da minare l’economia del Paese nordafricano, spinta soprattutto dal turismo.

Come riportato da Il Fatto Quotidiano, infatti, nel 2014 il turismo ha costituito il 14% del Pil egiziano. L’11,6% della popolazione è impiegata in questo settore. Circa 10 milioni di turisti stranieri, di cui 2 milioni russi, hanno visitato le Piramidi o hanno soggiornato in località come Sharm El-Sheik lo scorso anno.

Proprio adesso che inizia l’alta stagione, l’incidente dell’airbus russo rischia di piegare l’economia e di incidere negativamente sulla disoccupazione. In poche parole, dopo la caduta del regime di Mubarak e l’elezione di Morsi, poi arrestato, al Sisi rischia di non poter più tenere a bada una popolazione che, anche a causa delle condizioni di povertà, era stata protagonista della Primavera Araba nel 2011. E forse, come accaduto in un altro incidente aereo nel 1999, la conferma ufficiale da parte dell’autorità egiziane non arriverà mai.

Alla radice di tutto ciò, la messa al bando della Fratellanza Musulmana e l’intervento militare in Libia a difesa del governo di Tobruk hanno provocato la reazione e una duplice strategia di quell’altra parte dell’Islam, quella riconducibile al Daesh.

Sul fronte egiziano, la strategia del Califfato è quella di minare la stabilità del Paese, come già fatto in Siria e Iraq, in modo che esso non sia più un attore che dialoga con l’Occidente, come accaduto durante il regime di Mubarak e come sta accadendo ora.

Per quanto riguarda il contesto geopolitico, l’obiettivo è quello di evitare l’eventuale stabilizzazione della vicina Libia. Il che passa dalla mancata creazione di un governo di unità nazionale, ma anche dall’eliminare un possibile alleato di un eventuale intervento militare sotto l’egida delle Nazioni Unite.

Il plebiscito ottenuto da al Sisi nelle elezioni in corso e lo sfoggio di potere dimostrato dal presidente egiziano in occasione dell’inaugurazione dell’allargamento del Canale di Suez potrebbero diventare un ricordo se il Paese assistesse ad un tracollo sociale ed economico.
Giacomo Pratali

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Egypt plane crash: the socioeconomic effects

Middle East - Africa di

Vladimir Putin’s decision to stop flights on Egypt. British intelligence demonstration that the flight 7K9268 was blown up by a bomb. Islamic State claim and exultation on web sites close to Daesh. Egyptian government does not exclude an alleged attempt. The plane crashed on Sinai, in which 224 people died, could destabilize institutions and economy of Egypt.

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As early as during the last summer, jihadist groups strategy on Sinai, where they are affiliated to Caliphate, was clear: hitting international targets in Egypt, in order to undermine its economy, beginning from tourism.

As reported by Il Fatto Quotidiano, during 2014, tourism has accounted for 14% of Egyptian GDP. 11.6% of population has worked in this industry. About 10 million foreign tourists, whose 2 million Russians has visited Pyramids or Sharm El-Sheik.

However, current high season could be damage by Russian airbus crush. With that, Egyptian economy, especially unemployment, should have a collapse. After the fall of Mubarak and the election of Morsi, then arrested, al Sisi could risk in the face of population. The same that, because of poverty, was the protagonist of the Arab Spring in 2011.

But the banning of Muslim Brotherhood and military intervention in Libya to defend the Tobruk have caused the reaction and a dual strategy from Daesh. On the Egyptian front, Caliphate’s strategy is to undermine stability of the country, as in Syria and Iraq, in order to undercut its talks with West, as during Mubarak regime and now with al Sisi.

As for geopolitical context, the purpose is to avoid the possible stabilization of neighboring Libya. This means the failure of national unity government, but also the outster of a possible partner of United Nations. The last electoral success and the Suez Canal expansion could become a vague recollection for Al Sisi if Egypt had a social and economic crack.
Giacomo Pratali

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NATO: la Mitteleuropa alza la voce

Difesa di

L’Europa dell’Est alza la voce. A molti mesi ancora dal vertice NATO di Varsavia del luglio 2016, Polonia e Paesi Baltici sono in prima fila per l’aumento delle truppe atlantiche schierate ai confini con la Russia. Il vertice di Bucarest dei Paesi dell’Europa Orientale aderenti alla NATO del 3 e 4 novembre è il manifesto di una mai sopita paura verso il “nemico russo” di stampo novecentesco.

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Secondo le indiscrezioni riportate dal Wall Street Journal e riprese dalla stampa internazionale, in seno alla NATO sussiste un’alta fibrillazione in merito alle nuove misure sulla difesa da introdurre. Polonia e Paesi Baltici sono i capolinea di una proposta che vedrebbe pesantemente militarizzati i confini con la Russia. Infatti, a farsi largo, è l’ipotesi di istituire un battaglione di 800-1000 soldati in tutti e quattro gli Stati.

Inoltre, fonti vicine al governo americano parlano di un possibile piano che prevederebbe il dislocamento di 150 truppe da impiegare, a rotazione, in questi quattro Paesi. Un’ipotesi che richiederebbe, però, anche l’utilizzo di truppe di altri Stati membri.

Lo spostamento del focus dello scontro tra NATO/Stati Uniti e Russia dall’Ucraina alla Siria non ha diminuito le ansie dei governi dell’Est Europa e dei Paesi Scandinavi. In più, l’annuncio del segretario generale Jens Stoltenberg sulla creazione imminente di due nuove basi atlantiche in Ungheria e Slovacchia, non è servito certo ad abbassare i toni dello scontro: “La Russia ha a lungo avvertito della indesiderabilità del pericolo”, ha affermato Dmitri Peskov, portavoce del presidente russo Vladimir Putin.

Ma è il rinnovato protagonismo in campo geopolitico di alcuni Stati membri NATO a balzare agli occhi, nonostante le riserve delle altre cancellerie europee, Germania in primis, non inclini a trattare Mosca come un nemico permanente e fuori dalle logiche continentali.

La Polonia, dal canto suo, ha annunciato lo stanziamento di 30 miliardi di euro per l’aggiornamento del settore militare, oltre all’accordo di cooperazione firmato con la Svezia e alla creazione, entro la fine del 2015, di un “counter intelligence of excellence”, ovvero un centro di addestramento per accrescere le capacità di controspionaggio.

Ma non è solo il protagonismo putiniano in Ucraina ad avere riacceso la fiamma dello scontro tra Mosca e i suoi vicini europei. La crescente presenza russa nel Mar Artico, infatti, ha spinto la Norvegia ad incrementare di 20 miliardi di euro le spese destinate alla difesa: “Il nostro vicino in oriente ha aumentato la sua capacità militare, anche nelle zone a noi vicine. Ha dimostrato di essere disposto ad usare la forza militare per raggiungere ambizioni politiche”, si mormora in ambienti vicini alla Marina norvegese.

Il pugno di ferro dimostrato da Polonia, Ungheria e altri Paesi dell’Est in temi caldi come l’immigrazione e i rapporti con la Russia, unito alla grande popolarità di cui gode adesso la destra ultranazionalistica, stanno riportando l’Europa ad un clima da guerra fredda, a cui, probabilmente, neppure un’eventuale soluzione politica alla guerra in Ucraina potrebbe porre fine.

Le conseguenze delle invasioni, delle sottomissioni e dell’indipendenza degli Stati della Mitteleuropa, che hanno segnato l’epoca moderna e contemporanea, le vediamo nel 2015. Il nemico russo e la voglia di indipendenza da Bruxelles, come dimostrato dalle ultime elezioni polacche, rischiano di mandare all’aria il già delicato equilibrio internazionale tra Occidente e Russia.
Giacomo Pratali

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NATO: Eastern Europe talks up

Defence/Europe di

Many more months before the next NATO summit in Warsaw on July 2016, Poland and Baltic States want a heavy militarization to border with Russia. Their Defence policies, together with far-right organizations popularity, could undercut the weak international balance between West and Russia.

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According to rumors reported by The Wall Street Journal and recalled by international press, discussion about new NATO Defence measures is stressful. Poland and Baltic states would want a heavy militarization to border with Russia. Indeed, to make his way, a 800-1000 soldiers battalion in all these four countries could become real.

In addition, sources close to the US government talk about a possible deployment, in rotation in these four countries, of 150 troops. A hypothesis that would also require, however, use of troops from other Member States.

The shift of dispute between NATO / United States and Russia from Ukraine to Syria has not reduced Eastern Europe and Scandinavia states anxiety. Moreover, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s notice, about imminent creation of two new bases in Hungary and Slovakia, has not toned down some the clash: “Russia has long warned of the undesirability of the danger,” said Dmitri Peskov, spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

But it’s the renewed prominence of some NATO member countries in geopolitical context to stands out, despite other European chancelleries doubts, as Germany, which don’t want to treat Moscow like a permanent enemy and outside continental background.

From its viewpoint, Poland announced to allocate 30 billion euro for military update, as well as the cooperation with Sweden and the creation, by the end of 2015, of a “counter intelligence of excellence “, a training center to enhance counterintelligence skills.

Nonetheless, it was not only Putin behaviour in Ukraine to rekindle the antagonism between Moscow and its European neighbors. Indeed, Russia’s growing presence in the Arctic incited Norway to increase to 20 billion euro defense expenditure: “Our neighbor to the east has increased its military capacity, even in areas close to us. It’s been shown to be willing to use military force to achieve political ambitions, ” Norwegian Navy rumored.

The iron hand of Poland, Hungary and other Eastern European countries in hot issues such as immigration and relations with Russia, together with far-right organizations popularity, are again bringing Europe to a cold war hysteria, to which even a possible political solution to the war in Ukraine could not draw to close.

Central and Eastern Europe invasions, submissions and independence effects, during modern and contemporary ages, come to light in 2015. The Russian enemy and the desire of independence from Brussels, as demonstrated by the last Polish election, could undercut the weak international balance between West and Russia.
Giacomo Pratali

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Egitto: elezioni di facciata

Medio oriente – Africa di

Dopo il primo turno delle elezioni legislative che hanno sancito una netta e prevedibile vittoria del partito “Per amore dell’Egitto” del presidente Fattah al Sisi e, al contempo, un’affluenza ferma a meno del 25%, martedì 27 ottobre gli egiziani sono tornati alle urne per il ballottaggio riservato agli oltre 200 candidati non eletti il 17 e 18 ottobre.

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Secondo gli analisti locali ed internazionali, la popolarità di al Sisi andrebbe misurata in base all’affluenza elettorale: pertanto, la misura del consenso per l’ex generale è palese. Dopo la rivoluzione e le elezioni del 2012, sancite dalla vittoria del candidato dei Fratelli Musulmani Mohammed Morsi, l’Egitto è tornato a rieleggere il proprio parlamento. La sete di libertà della maggioranza del popolo egiziano, testimoniata dalla rivoluzione del 2011, è stata però fermata dall’attuale regime.

Quasi l’80% dei 55 milioni aventi diritto, infatti, è rimasto a casa nella prima tornata per le azioni illiberali di al Sisi. Salito al potere nel 2014 dopo il golpe in cui è stato destituito Morsi, l’attuale leader dell’Egitto ha bollato i Fratelli Musulmani come organizzazione terroristica, facendo arrestare e condannare a morte l’ex presidente stesso e i leader di questo movimento.

A questo, si aggiunge l’entrata in vigore della nuova costituzione. Se a prima vista contiene alcuni principi liberali, come la eleggibilità per massimo due mandati consecutivi e l’apertura alle minoranze pur mantenendo l’Islam come religione di Stato, un’analisi in profondità mette a nudo la subalternità dell’assemblea legislativa rispetto al presidente, chiamata ad approvare i decreti del capo dello Stato.

In più, le grandi opere, l’apertura ai capitali esteri e l’interventismo in Libia per accattivarsi i consensi presso la comunità internazionale, tre motivi del paragone con Nasser, contrastano con la totale mancanza di welfare e la vicinanza de facto all’ex presidente Hosni Mubarak.

In attesa dell’affluenza e dell’esito del ballottaggio, il primo turno fornisce ulteriori indicazioni sullo stato di salute dell’Egitto. Oltre alla già citata scarsa partecipazione degli elettori, la tornata del 17 e 18 ottobre scorso ha consentito al partito di al Sisi di portare a casa 60 seggi su 60. Mentre, il “Partito degli egiziani liberi” del magnate delle telecomunicazioni Naguib Sawiris e di presunto stampo laico e liberale, che ospita, assieme all’alleato “Per amore dell’Egitto”, alcuni esponenti dell’ex regime di Mubarak, ha eletto subito 5 candidati, mentre 65 sono andati al secondo turno.

“Non è stato facile creare un partito forte senza l’ingerenza del governo. Per noi la coalizione non ha alcuna importanza, sono loro che ci hanno chiesto di entrare per avere più credibilità”, ha affermato Sawiris a Le Monde.

Ottimi risultati, poi, di “Per il futuro della nazione”, formazione politica composta da giovani collegati al golpe del 2013, per i liberali del WAFD. Sconfitta, invece, per “Al Nour”, unico partito in gioco dichiaratamente islamista dopo l’uscita di scena dei “Fratelli Musulmani”, che ha minacciato più volte di ritirarsi a causa di presunti brogli.

Dopo il ballottaggio, l’altra tornata elettorale si terrà il 22 e 23 novembre. Mentre i risultati saranno resi pubblici a dicembre. Tuttavia, l’esito certo è che, dopo la Primavera Araba e la presidenza Morsi, l’Egitto è tornato ad un regime simile a quello di Mubarak, tormentato però dalla presenza ormai stabile di organizzazioni islamiste affiliate al Califfato e operanti soprattutto nella regione del Sinai.
Giacomo Pratali

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Egypt: fake elections

Middle East - Africa di

The first round of parliamentary elections of 17 and 18 October established a clear and predictable victory of President Fattah al Sisi’s party “For the Love of Egypt” and, at the same time, a turnout very poor, less than 25%. On October 27, Egyptians have come back to the polls for runoff concerning over 200 non-elected candidates.

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According to local and international analysts, al Sisi’s popularity should be weighed by electoral turnout: therefore, his degree of consensus is obvious. After the revolution and the elections of 2012, characterized by the victory of the Muslim Brotherhood representative Mohammed Morsi, Egypt return to re-elect its parliament. However, Egyptians thirst for freedom, as witnessed by the revolution of 2011, was stopped by the current regime.

Indeed, almost 80% of the 55 million assignees remained at home in the first round due to al Sisi illiberal actions. Come to power in 2014 after the coup against Morsi, the current head of state has branded the Muslim Brotherhood as terrorist organization, arresting and sentencing to death the former president and movement leadership.

And it’s necessary to add the new constitution, too. If it apparently contains a few liberal ideas, such as the limit of two consecutive terms and openness to minorities while maintaining Islam as state religion, however a profound knowledge reveals the president influence on parliament, which have to approve his decrees.

In addition, major works, the opening to foreign capital and interventionism in Libya in order to ingratiate the international community, three reasons of comparison with Nasser, contrast with the total lack of welfare and proximity former President Hosni Mubarak de facto .

Waiting for ballot turnout and outcome, the first round gives further directions on Egypt fettle. Besides the above, low turnout on 17 and 18 October permitted al Sisi to win 60 seats out of 60. While, supposedly secular and liberal “Free Egyptians Party”, established by telecommunications tycoon Naguib Sawiris, which include, with its ally “For love of Egypt”, some members of the former Mubarak regime, has now elected five candidates, while 65 went to the second round.

“It was not easy to create a strong party without government interference. The coalition does not matter for us, because they asked us to come in to have more reliability, “said Sawiris to Le Monde.

Excellent results also of “For the future of the nation”, political movement composed of young linked to the coup of 2013. However, “Al Nour”, the only overtly Islamist party in after disappearance of “Muslim Brotherhood”, was defeated.

After runoff, the second election will be on 22 and 23 November. While results will be published in December. However, the outcome is already certain that, after the Arab Spring and Morsi presidency, Egypt is back to a context similar to Mubarak regime, but anguished by Islamist organizations affiliated to Caliphate and mainly operating in Sinai.
Giacomo Pratali

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Migrants, Balkan Route: yes to the deal

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More support to refugees through shelter, food, health, water and sanitation. Daily exchange of information between countries and Brussels. More reception capacity in Greece and in other Balkan countries. Borders management and stabilization thanks to Frontex reinforcement between Bulgaria and Turkey and 400 police officers to Slovenia. These are the topics of the deal approved by the head of 11 EU States and 3 non-Eu within European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker during summit about the Western Balkan Migration Route in Bruxelles on October 25.

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In the first phase of summit, Croatia, Slovenia, Hungary, Czech Republic and Bulgaria were initially opposed to EU directives, especially Orban who wants to go on closing its borders. However, before the meeting, Juncker said: “Countries affected should not only talk about each other and at each other, but also with each other. Neighbours should work together not against each other. Refugees need to be treated in a humane manner along the length of the Western Balkans route to avoid a humanitarian tragedy in Europe. I am therefore pleased that today we were able to jointly agree on a 17-point plan of pragmatic and operational measures to ensure people are not left to fend for themselves in the rain and cold “.

And so leaders representing Albania, Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Romania, Serbia and Slovenia agreed to improve cooperation and step up consultation between the countries along the route and decided on pragmatic operational measures that can be implemented as of tomorrow to tackle the refugee crisis in the region.

Poland turn to right after Eurosceptic victory, as borders closing to refugees on the part of Hungary and several Eastern Europe, combined to over 650,000 people, especially from Syria, arrived by sea during this year, demand a strong answer from EU Member states.

These are all the deal:

Permanent exchange of information
1. Nominating contact points within 24 hours to allow daily exchanges and coordination to achieve the gradual, controlled and orderly movement of persons along the Western Balkans route;
2. Submitting joint needs assessments for EU support within 24 hours;
Limiting Secondary Movements
3. Discouraging the movement of refugees or migrants to the border of another country of the region without informing neighbouring countries;

Supporting refugees and providing shelter and rest
4. Increasing the capacity to provide temporary shelter, food, health, water and sanitation to all in need; triggering the EU Civil Protection Mechanism where necessary;
5. Greece to increase reception capacity to 30,000 places by the end of the year, and to support UNHCR to provide rent subsidies and host family programmes for at least 20,000 more – a pre-condition to make the emergency relocation scheme work; Financial support for Greece and UNHCR is expected;
6. Working with the UNHCR who will support the increase of reception capacities by 50,000 places along the Western Balkans route.
7. Working with International Financial Institutions such as the European Investment Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the Development Bank of the Council of Europe which are ready to support financially efforts of the countries willing to make use of these resources;

Managing the migration flows together
8. Ensuring a full capacity to register arrivals, with maximum use of biometric data;
9. Exchanging information on the size of flows and, where requested, on all arriving refugees and migrants on a country’s territory;
10. Working with EU Agencies to swiftly put in place this exchange of information;
11. Stepping up national and coordinated efforts to return migrants not in need of international protection, working with Frontex;
12. Working with the European Commission and Frontex to step up practical cooperation on readmission with third countries and intensifying cooperation in particular with Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan; Commission to work to implement existing readmission agreements fully and start work on new readmission agreements with relevant countries;

Border Management
13. Increase efforts to manage borders, including by:
o    Finalising and implementing the EU-Turkey Action Plan;
o    Making full use of the potential of the EU-Turkey readmission agreement and the visa liberalisation roadmap;
o    Upscaling the Poseidon Sea Joint Operation in Greece;
o    Reinforcing Frontex support at the border between Bulgaria and Turkey
o    Strengthening border cooperation between Greece and the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, with increased UNHCR engagement;
o    Greece and the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Albania will strengthen the management of the external land border, with Frontex to support registration in Greece;
o    Working together with Frontex to monitor border crossings and support registration and fingerprinting at the Croatian-Serbian border crossing points;
o    Deploying in Slovenia 400 police officers and essential equipment within a week, through bilateral support;
o    Strengthening the Frontex Western Balkans Risk Analysis Network with intensified reporting from all participants;
o    Making use, where appropriate of the Rapid Border Intervention Team (RABIT) mechanism, which should be duly equipped;
14. Reconfirming the principle of refusing entry to third country nationals who do not confirm a wish to apply for international protection (in line with international and EU refugee law and subject to prior non-refoulement and proportionality checks);

Tackling smuggling and trafficking
15. Stepping up actions against migrant smuggling and trafficking of human beings with support of Europol, Frontex and Interpol;
Information on the rights and obligations of refugees and migrants
16. Making use of all available communication tools to inform refugees and migrants about existing rules, as well as about their rights and obligations, notably on the consequences of a refusal to be registered, fingerprinted and of a refusal to seek protection where they are;
Monitoring
17. Monitoring the implementation of these commitments on a weekly basis; Commission to coordinate with national contact points.
Giacomo Pratali

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Libya: agreement in the balance

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Tobruk rejects the Council of Presidency, but does not formally vote on the proposal on 9 October. International Community is waiting for Tripoli response. National unity government hangs in the balance. However, Leon mandate at maturity and Daesh radicalization require a quickly change.

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UN envoy Bernardino Leon buoyancy at the end of favorable negotiations on October 9, in which it was drawn up draft agreement and national unity government designations, contradicts Tobruk Parliament rejection on October 19 of Presidential Council submitted by the United Nations.

Then, not a formal vote against the deal. However, the 153 deputies of the Assembly have sent a powerful message to the United Nations and Tripoli. A discontent consisted of seventy representatives, who are ready, as reported by Libyan Herald, to distance themselves from the Tobruk position.

Now, there is waiting for Tripoli response, even if the premises on October 19, when draft was turned down by GNC head Nuri Abu Sahimin, who has disapproved “formal invitation to New York in the presence of Tobruk Foreign Minister, supported by an illegal parliament since resolved by the Constitutional Court, a Libyan delegate to the UN removed by Congress and Egypt and Emirates Foreign ministers “.

However, Tobruk Parliament’s mandate has just officially expired Monday, October 19 (though it has since been extended). Just as Leon, to whom will succeed the German Martin Kobler and close to the failure of his mission in Libya. And EU military, economical and social plan in support of the national unity government, announced by High Representative Federica Mogherini last October 20, seems unrealistic if Tobruk and Tripoli will not say yes to the United Nations draft.

In addition to the joint statement of several countries in recent days, the reactions of the last hours minimize what happened in Tobruk: “It did not approve nor reject. It was only decided not to submit the proposal to the vote of the Chamber of Representatives “, Italian Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni said. While Leon reiterated that “the process goes on. There is no chance for small groups or personalities to hijack this process. The political solution is the only real alternative,” Leon restated.

Next hours are crucial. The several institutional deadlines but, above all, Daesh radicalization in a strategic city as Benghazi demands an urgent political unique solution.

Giacomo Pratali

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Libia: accordo in bilico

Medio oriente – Africa/Varie di

Tobruk boccia il Consiglio di Presidenza, ma non si esprime sulla proposta del 9 ottobre. C’è attesa per la risposta di Tripoli. La formazione del governo di unità nazionale rischia di saltare. Tuttavia, il mandato di Leon in scadenza e la radicalizzazione del Daesh in alcuni centri nevralgici del Paese richiedono un cambio di rotta in tempi rapidi.

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L’ottimismo mostrato dal delegato Onu in Libia Bernardino Leon al termine delle positive trattative dello scorso 9 ottobre, in cui era stata stilata la bozza dell’accordo e i nomi del nuovo governo di unità nazionale, cozzano con la bocciatura del 19 ottobre del Parlamento di Tobruk dei nomi del Consiglio di Presidenza presentati dalle Nazioni Unite.

Non un voto formale contro l’accordo, dunque. Ma i 153 deputati dell’Assemblea hanno comunque lanciato un messaggio forte alle Nazioni Unite e a Tripoli. Un malcontento che conterebbe una settantina di rappresentanti, pronti, secondo quanto riportato dal Libyan Herald, a defilarsi rispetto alle posizioni del governo di Tobruk.

Adesso, c’è attesa per la risposta di Tripoli, anche se le premesse del 16 ottobre scorso, data della bocciatura dell’accordo di Skhirat da parte del Presidente del Congresso Nuri Abu Sahimin, l quale ha condanato “l’essere stato invitato a New York alla presenza del Ministro degli Esteri di Tobruk, sostenuto da un parlamento illegale poiché sciolto dalla Corte Costituzionale, di un delegato libico presso l’Onu rimosso dal Congresso e dei ministri degli Esteri di Egitto ed Emirati”.

Tuttavia, se uno spiraglio è ancora aperto, il mandato del Parlamento di Tobruk è ufficialmente scaduto proprio lunedì 19 ottobre (anche se poi è stato prorogato). Così come per Leon, a cui succederà il tedesco Martin Kobler e vicino al fallimento della sua missione libica. E il piano militare, economico e sociale a sostegno di un eventuale governo di unità nazionale e dei libici dell’Unione Europea, annunciato dall’alto rappresentante Federica Mogherini lo scorso 20 ottobre, appare utopistico se Tobruk e Tripoli non diranno sì alla bozza delle Nazioni Unite.

Oltre alla dichiarazione congiunta di molti Paesi Onu dei giorni scorsi, le reazioni delle ultime ore tendono a minimizzare quanto è accaduto a Tobruk: “Non ha né approvato né bocciato. È stato solo deciso di non sottoporre la proposta al voto della Camera dei Rappresentanti, ha affermato il ministro degli Affari Esteri italiano Paolo Gentiloni. Mentre Leon ha ribadito che “la minoranza non terrà in ostaggio il processo negoziale. La soluzione politica è l’unica possibile”.

Al netto delle dichiarazioni, tuttavia, le prossime ore appaiono decisive. Le varie scadenze istituzionali ma, soprattutto, la radicalizzazione del Daesh in una città strategica come Bengasi pongono come urgente una soluzione politica univoca per la Libia.

Giacomo Pratali

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