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France bombs IS. G-20: US-Russia deal?

Europe/Middle East - Africa di

France drops bombs on Raqqa after Paris attacks. During the G20, Obama and Putin talk about a common strategy in Syria.

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France have reacted to act of war of the Islamic State, as defined by French President Francoise Hollande. Not only within national borders. French aviation have intensified, durinf the night of November 15, the bombings on strategic locations in Syria. Ministry of Defence said that 12 aircrafts have been employed to attack Raqqa, the capital of Islamic State, and targeted a command center and a training camp.

So, Paris attacks led to an immediate reaction from the Elysee. And, above all, the government is not scared by the fact that just recent raids in Syria have caused bloody reaction on November 13. This military action is in cooperation with the US, already operating in Syria and Iraq, which have provided logistical and intelligence supports.

During the G20 in Turkey yesterday, Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin agreed on the need for “a Syrian-led and Syrian-owned political transition”, as reported by the White House. Even if the Cremlin “don’t think that West had a unique point of view” and “differences on tactics still remain,” this meeting has been positive to partially reconnect two United States and Russia on Daesh front.7

Despite Ukrainian crisis and NATO expansion, Paris attacks could bring the Us and Russia to military cooperate in Syria, in order to find a”peaceful conflict resolution,” G20 statement reported. Isis strategy could bring to adverse effect, uniting West and Russia against Caliphate.

The strategy of terror of the Islamic State could have an adverse effect and reassemble the West and Russia in the name of fighting Caliphate.
Giacomo Pratali

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Paris under siege: European 9/11

Miscellaneous di

At least 127 killed and 197 injured, including no less than 80 seriously wounded. These are dramatic numbers, which are increasing hour by hour, of bombings attacks, on the cry of “it’s for Syria” or “Allahu Akbar” that shook Paris Friday, 13 November. 7 actions accomplished in the heart of the French capital claimed by Islamic State.
The most important at the Bataclan theatre, where about 1,500 people were attending a rock concert. Here, three terrorists went into action, initially taking about a hundred hostages, while 30 was able to immediately escape. Attackers then fired on the crowd. The police raid during night provoked their killing, but also the dramatic discovery of 118 corpses.

This is the most serious incident. But terror lasted for several hours, during which there was fear of further actions. And the high alert, which was followed by the mobilization of more than 1,500 units of the French army, involved several locations in the center of Paris. And blood and victims have consequently risen. 18 killed at La Belle Equipe bar, 15 at Le Carillon bar and Le Petit Cambodge restaurant, 5 at Pizzeria La Casa Nostra, 3 outside Stade France, where, during the friendly match France-Germany, three strong explosions, caused by as many explosions, were heard. On the other side, in addition to the three terrorists killed at the Bataclan, seven blew themselves up, also around 15 and 17 years old.

French President Francois Hollande, who attended match, was immediately cleared out for security reasons and called an extraordinary Council of Ministers. During the speech to the Frech People, he asked the Parisians to open their homes and do not lack the solidarity towards those who was involved. Moreover, declared a “alpha” high alert and announced partial closure and intensification of border controls (in the morning was closed on Mont Blanc pass linking Italy and France).

“As I speak, terrorist attacks of unprecedented proportions are underway in the Paris area. Two decisions will be taken: a state of emergency will be declared, which means that some places will be closed, traffic may be banned, and there will also be searches which may be decided throughout Île-de-France [greater Paris]. The state of emergency will be proclaimed throughout the territory [of France]. The second decision I have made is the closure of borders. We must ensure that no one enters to commit any crimes and that those who have committed the crimes that we have unfortunately seen can also be arrested if they should leave the territory. “ he said.

 

Giacomo Pratali

 

Egypt plane crash: the socioeconomic effects

Middle East - Africa di

Vladimir Putin’s decision to stop flights on Egypt. British intelligence demonstration that the flight 7K9268 was blown up by a bomb. Islamic State claim and exultation on web sites close to Daesh. Egyptian government does not exclude an alleged attempt. The plane crashed on Sinai, in which 224 people died, could destabilize institutions and economy of Egypt.

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As early as during the last summer, jihadist groups strategy on Sinai, where they are affiliated to Caliphate, was clear: hitting international targets in Egypt, in order to undermine its economy, beginning from tourism.

As reported by Il Fatto Quotidiano, during 2014, tourism has accounted for 14% of Egyptian GDP. 11.6% of population has worked in this industry. About 10 million foreign tourists, whose 2 million Russians has visited Pyramids or Sharm El-Sheik.

However, current high season could be damage by Russian airbus crush. With that, Egyptian economy, especially unemployment, should have a collapse. After the fall of Mubarak and the election of Morsi, then arrested, al Sisi could risk in the face of population. The same that, because of poverty, was the protagonist of the Arab Spring in 2011.

But the banning of Muslim Brotherhood and military intervention in Libya to defend the Tobruk have caused the reaction and a dual strategy from Daesh. On the Egyptian front, Caliphate’s strategy is to undermine stability of the country, as in Syria and Iraq, in order to undercut its talks with West, as during Mubarak regime and now with al Sisi.

As for geopolitical context, the purpose is to avoid the possible stabilization of neighboring Libya. This means the failure of national unity government, but also the outster of a possible partner of United Nations. The last electoral success and the Suez Canal expansion could become a vague recollection for Al Sisi if Egypt had a social and economic crack.
Giacomo Pratali

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NATO: Eastern Europe talks up

Defence/Europe di

Many more months before the next NATO summit in Warsaw on July 2016, Poland and Baltic States want a heavy militarization to border with Russia. Their Defence policies, together with far-right organizations popularity, could undercut the weak international balance between West and Russia.

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According to rumors reported by The Wall Street Journal and recalled by international press, discussion about new NATO Defence measures is stressful. Poland and Baltic states would want a heavy militarization to border with Russia. Indeed, to make his way, a 800-1000 soldiers battalion in all these four countries could become real.

In addition, sources close to the US government talk about a possible deployment, in rotation in these four countries, of 150 troops. A hypothesis that would also require, however, use of troops from other Member States.

The shift of dispute between NATO / United States and Russia from Ukraine to Syria has not reduced Eastern Europe and Scandinavia states anxiety. Moreover, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s notice, about imminent creation of two new bases in Hungary and Slovakia, has not toned down some the clash: “Russia has long warned of the undesirability of the danger,” said Dmitri Peskov, spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

But it’s the renewed prominence of some NATO member countries in geopolitical context to stands out, despite other European chancelleries doubts, as Germany, which don’t want to treat Moscow like a permanent enemy and outside continental background.

From its viewpoint, Poland announced to allocate 30 billion euro for military update, as well as the cooperation with Sweden and the creation, by the end of 2015, of a “counter intelligence of excellence “, a training center to enhance counterintelligence skills.

Nonetheless, it was not only Putin behaviour in Ukraine to rekindle the antagonism between Moscow and its European neighbors. Indeed, Russia’s growing presence in the Arctic incited Norway to increase to 20 billion euro defense expenditure: “Our neighbor to the east has increased its military capacity, even in areas close to us. It’s been shown to be willing to use military force to achieve political ambitions, ” Norwegian Navy rumored.

The iron hand of Poland, Hungary and other Eastern European countries in hot issues such as immigration and relations with Russia, together with far-right organizations popularity, are again bringing Europe to a cold war hysteria, to which even a possible political solution to the war in Ukraine could not draw to close.

Central and Eastern Europe invasions, submissions and independence effects, during modern and contemporary ages, come to light in 2015. The Russian enemy and the desire of independence from Brussels, as demonstrated by the last Polish election, could undercut the weak international balance between West and Russia.
Giacomo Pratali

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Egypt: fake elections

Middle East - Africa di

The first round of parliamentary elections of 17 and 18 October established a clear and predictable victory of President Fattah al Sisi’s party “For the Love of Egypt” and, at the same time, a turnout very poor, less than 25%. On October 27, Egyptians have come back to the polls for runoff concerning over 200 non-elected candidates.

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According to local and international analysts, al Sisi’s popularity should be weighed by electoral turnout: therefore, his degree of consensus is obvious. After the revolution and the elections of 2012, characterized by the victory of the Muslim Brotherhood representative Mohammed Morsi, Egypt return to re-elect its parliament. However, Egyptians thirst for freedom, as witnessed by the revolution of 2011, was stopped by the current regime.

Indeed, almost 80% of the 55 million assignees remained at home in the first round due to al Sisi illiberal actions. Come to power in 2014 after the coup against Morsi, the current head of state has branded the Muslim Brotherhood as terrorist organization, arresting and sentencing to death the former president and movement leadership.

And it’s necessary to add the new constitution, too. If it apparently contains a few liberal ideas, such as the limit of two consecutive terms and openness to minorities while maintaining Islam as state religion, however a profound knowledge reveals the president influence on parliament, which have to approve his decrees.

In addition, major works, the opening to foreign capital and interventionism in Libya in order to ingratiate the international community, three reasons of comparison with Nasser, contrast with the total lack of welfare and proximity former President Hosni Mubarak de facto .

Waiting for ballot turnout and outcome, the first round gives further directions on Egypt fettle. Besides the above, low turnout on 17 and 18 October permitted al Sisi to win 60 seats out of 60. While, supposedly secular and liberal “Free Egyptians Party”, established by telecommunications tycoon Naguib Sawiris, which include, with its ally “For love of Egypt”, some members of the former Mubarak regime, has now elected five candidates, while 65 went to the second round.

“It was not easy to create a strong party without government interference. The coalition does not matter for us, because they asked us to come in to have more reliability, “said Sawiris to Le Monde.

Excellent results also of “For the future of the nation”, political movement composed of young linked to the coup of 2013. However, “Al Nour”, the only overtly Islamist party in after disappearance of “Muslim Brotherhood”, was defeated.

After runoff, the second election will be on 22 and 23 November. While results will be published in December. However, the outcome is already certain that, after the Arab Spring and Morsi presidency, Egypt is back to a context similar to Mubarak regime, but anguished by Islamist organizations affiliated to Caliphate and mainly operating in Sinai.
Giacomo Pratali

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Libya: agreement in the balance

Miscellaneous di

Tobruk rejects the Council of Presidency, but does not formally vote on the proposal on 9 October. International Community is waiting for Tripoli response. National unity government hangs in the balance. However, Leon mandate at maturity and Daesh radicalization require a quickly change.

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UN envoy Bernardino Leon buoyancy at the end of favorable negotiations on October 9, in which it was drawn up draft agreement and national unity government designations, contradicts Tobruk Parliament rejection on October 19 of Presidential Council submitted by the United Nations.

Then, not a formal vote against the deal. However, the 153 deputies of the Assembly have sent a powerful message to the United Nations and Tripoli. A discontent consisted of seventy representatives, who are ready, as reported by Libyan Herald, to distance themselves from the Tobruk position.

Now, there is waiting for Tripoli response, even if the premises on October 19, when draft was turned down by GNC head Nuri Abu Sahimin, who has disapproved “formal invitation to New York in the presence of Tobruk Foreign Minister, supported by an illegal parliament since resolved by the Constitutional Court, a Libyan delegate to the UN removed by Congress and Egypt and Emirates Foreign ministers “.

However, Tobruk Parliament’s mandate has just officially expired Monday, October 19 (though it has since been extended). Just as Leon, to whom will succeed the German Martin Kobler and close to the failure of his mission in Libya. And EU military, economical and social plan in support of the national unity government, announced by High Representative Federica Mogherini last October 20, seems unrealistic if Tobruk and Tripoli will not say yes to the United Nations draft.

In addition to the joint statement of several countries in recent days, the reactions of the last hours minimize what happened in Tobruk: “It did not approve nor reject. It was only decided not to submit the proposal to the vote of the Chamber of Representatives “, Italian Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni said. While Leon reiterated that “the process goes on. There is no chance for small groups or personalities to hijack this process. The political solution is the only real alternative,” Leon restated.

Next hours are crucial. The several institutional deadlines but, above all, Daesh radicalization in a strategic city as Benghazi demands an urgent political unique solution.

Giacomo Pratali

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Libya: yes to national unity government

BreakingNews @en/Middle East - Africa di

Bernardino Leon has announced Libya national unity government. The agreement, reached in the late evening of Thursday 8 October in Morocco, has been signed by all factions, including Tripoli, which has approved draft endorsed by other parties last September. The UN envoy has also named Prime Minister Fayez Serray, former member of Tripoli parliament.

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“More work remains. Negotiators who attended the peace talks representing the rival governments approved the names of candidates, but the parliaments for both sides must approve them, too. The U.N. says an estimated 2.44 million people in Libya are in need of protection and some form of humanitarian aid, “ Leon said.

After about a year of difficult talks, Leon, at the end of his assignment in Libya, has also aexplained that Tobruk and Tripoli will have to choose the future Cabinet. While the United Nations has already named three vice presidents who will compose, together with Prime Minister, the presidential council.

Moussa Kony, independent and coming from Fezzan. Maemq Ahmed, a member of the General National Congress of Tripoli. Fatj Majbari, coming from Cyrenaica but not belonging to General Haftar army.

The international community has welcomed this deal. Now, after new government composition, a military intervention, under the aegis of the United Nations and maybe led by Italy, could be begin against Daesh: We now expect the Libyan parties to endorse this deal which meets the aspirations of the Libyan people, to take the path of peace and prLiosperity. The European Union stands ready to offer immediate substantial political and financial support – worth 100million euros – to the new government, “ the EU High Representative Federica Mogherini remarked.

While Secretary General of the United Nations Ban Ki-moon has pushed Tobruk and Tripoli “not to squander this opportunity to put the country back on the path to building a state that reflects the spirit and ambitions of the 2011 revolution”.

As Italian Minister of Foreign Affairs Paolo Gentiloni, who expressed “satisfaction with the results achieved over night by the Libyan delegations. This is an important step toward the much hoped for establishment of a national unity government. It is now essential that all the parties concerned approve the agreement and proceed to signing it”, the minister said. “In acknowledgement of the unceasing efforts of UN envoy Bernardino Leon – the minister concluded – Italy will continue to lend its support to the next stages in attaining peace and stability in Libya”.

Giacomo Pratali

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Syria: the necessary deal between the US and Russia

Middle East - Africa/Policy di

After Russian bombings in Syria, the violation of Turkish airspace and the support of Assad, relationship between the Washington and Moscow have become even colder. However, a cooperation agreement against Islamic State is possible.

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Ministry of Defense of Russian Federation could accept the Pentagon proposal on coordination in the fight against ISIS in Syria. This is what the Kremlin leaked Wednesday 7th October, speaking of ongoing diplomatic relathioship with the White House after the US-Russia summit at the United Nations on 29th September.

Since last 30th September, when Russia began to bomb Syria, it started a double escalation. From military point of view, with Russian fighters brought to Palmira, in the provinces of Aleppo and Hama, where they helped regular army against Islamist insurgents, but not belonging to Daesh. Russian support of Assad, challenged by the United States and NATO, and the violation of Turkish airspace caused the diplomatic escalation.

Indeed, there were several give and take between the West, which accuses Russia to hit Syrian not fundamentalists rebels and play jihadists game, and the Kremlin, which has branded these accusations as hoaxes.

“We reject the Russian assertion that all armed opponents of the “brutal” Mr Assad were terrorists, ” president of the US Barack Obama boomed out While minister of Defence Michael Fallon stated that only 5% of Russians raid hit the Caliphate: “Our evidence indicates they are dropping unguided munitions in civilian areas, killing civilians, and they are dropping them against the Free Syrian forces fighting Assad. Percentage of victims proved by The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) .

“The only true way to combat international terrorism, in Syria and in the territories of neighboring countries where international terrorism is rampant, is to act preemptively by fighting and killing terrorists which have captured territories,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said. While Minister of Foriegn Affairs Sergey Lavrov explained that “we have the same approach: it’s ISIL, Al-Nusra and other terrorist groups. We believe that the Free Syrian Army should be part of the political process, like some other armed groups on the ground.”

But this tension on the diplomatic level is also involving Turkey. The violation of Turkish airspace, caused by “bad weather” according to Russian reason, opened a diplomatic incident with Turkish President Recep Erdogan, historically enemy of Assad and accused to taking in Syria many foreign fighters enlisted by the Caliphate.

The Kremlin explanations were rejected by Erdogan and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. The statement published by Member States of the Atlantic Alliance last 5th October called on Russia “to end air strikes on the Syrian opposition and civilians” and commented on violation of Turkish airspace as “the extreme danger of such irresponsible behaviour”.

However, this argument could be mitigated by a possible cooperation agreement between Washington and Moscow. Moreover, not only Russia, but also the West decided to intervene in Syria. The United States (and maybe Italy) are reconquering Iraqi city defeated by Islamic State. France, Australia and Great Britain (pending the ratification of the Parliament) are sending their fighters to Syria.

Russian annoying attitude against the United States and NATO probably concealed one purpose: to involve the Western partners in the war against Islamic State. This goal could be reached in the coming days.
Giacomo Pratali

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Kunduz, MSF hospital airstrike: excuses and charges

BreakingNews @en/Middle East - Africa di

19 dead and about 30 wounded and missing after the wrong air raid conducted yesterday by the US coalition against hospital in Kunduz, Afghanistan, where MSF had its headquarters. The attack follows other United States special actions on this city, during the last week, wherein they killed 200 Mansour’s Taliban. Jihadists run away from city center, but now still control some suburban areas.

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Doctors Without Borders, of which 12 workers were killed, denied that Talibans were in the hospital: “All parties to the conflict, including in Kabul and Washington, were clearly informed of the precise location (GPS Coordinates) of the MSF facilities – hospital, guesthouse, office and an outreach stabilization unit in Chardara (to the north-west of Kunduz). As MSF does in all conflict contexts, these precise locations were communicated to all parties on multiple occasions over the past months, including most recently on 29 September. The bombing continued for more than 30 minutes after American and Afghan military officials in Kabul and Washington were first informed. MSF urgently seeks clarity on exactly what took place and how this terrible event could have happened. “ NGO’s statement said.

President of United States Barack Obama offered MSF his deepest condolences and explained that “the Department of Defense has launched a full investigation, and we will await the results of that inquiry before making a definitive judgement as to the circumstances of this tragedy.”

“I am deeply saddened by the tragic incident involving a Doctors without Borders hospital in Kunduz – NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said -. I extend my condolences to all those affected. Doctors without Borders perform extraordinary humanitarian work across the world, including in Afghanistan. They play an important role in helping create the conditions for a better future for the Afghan people. “

While the UN is determined to open an investigation, the NGO was forced to move to other city medical centers. However, the investigations announced by United States and United Nations are not enough sufficient: “This attack is abhorrent and a grave violation of International Humanitarian Law,” said Meinie Nicolai, MSF President. “We demand total transparency from Coalition forces. We cannot accept that this horrific loss of life will simply be dismissed as ‘collateral damage’.”

If Russian military intervention in Syria and support for President Assad have not been approved by Washington, the human error, which caused several victims among patients and MSF doctors, embarasses the US in front of the international community, especially after Yemen where, a few months ago, bombs against Sunni refugee camps came from United States equipment.
Giacomo Pratali

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Nigeria: international community’s deafening silence

BreakingNews @en di

Five suicide little girls killed 4 deaths (including themselves) and 41 wounded in Maiduguri, the capital of Borno State. Explosions took place near a mosque, after the evening prayer, and security building. Although it has not claimed responsibility yet, attacks are very probably endorsed by Boko Haram. In addition, it’s not the first time that this jihadist organization uses brainwashed girls to hit population.

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If Syria and Libya are in international community spotlights, the same can not be said for Nigeria, as evidenced by refusal of military aid from the United States last July. Already in September, Borno has seen over 100 casualties caused by Boko Haram. Nigerian army outposts strengthening in Maiduguri and African military force creation along with Cameroon, Chad, Nigeria and Benin have not led to the desired results, despite some hostages release in north-eastern Nigeria.

In addition, to worsen this context, there is sanitation situation in the capital of Borno State. As reported by MSF, in the count of 16 September, there were 16 deaths and 172 cases of cholera in the camps in Maiduguri. Displaced people at these facilities would be 1,600,000, too many for the number of beds available: “Once again, MSF and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) are alone on the field,” MSF Head of Mission in Nigeria Ghada Hatim said.

The news of Boko Haram arrival in Libya and the migration emergency due to the displacement of hundreds of thousands Chadians and Nigerians, can no longer remain silent. Finally, Nigerian division between developed south and under siege north, it makes almost impossible refugee status to Nigerian people escaped by Boko Haram: indeed, Nigerian people are generically considered illegal economic migrants.

Giacomo Pratali

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