GEOPOLITICA DEL MONDO MODERNO

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Libya: deal is due to expire

BreakingNews @en/Policy di

70 people killed by a truck bomb detonated in a police training center. Oil terminals are under attack. More than 300 kilometers of coastline are controlled by Islamic State. New government formation is always more essential in order that UN intervention could stop Daesh advance and allow Libya to grow.

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70 people killed and several injured. It’s the definitely bloody balance of attack in Zliten, where a jihadist detonated a truck bomb beside a police training center last Thursday. An affiliate group of Daesh claimed responsability. While Italy evacuated 15 woundered on Monday sending a C-130 to take them to military hospital in Rome.

Meanwhile, Eu foreign affairs chief Federica Mogherini met prime minister Fayez al-Sarraj, backed in Tunis after attack at Misurata airport last Friday, and pledged 100 million euro aid-package.

But Libya is close to collapse. Indeed, unity government deal should run out of time within two weeks: nevertheless, Tripoli, Tobruk and other factions have not still assembled new executive. Instead, Tripoli, where new government will be established, as is other cities, are victims not only of Daesh, but of clashes between enemy factions.

The whole while The Financial Times publishes a new report about Libyan economic context. Analysis is tragic. Oil production collapse to 400,000 b/d in the last 18 months, while it reached 1,4 million during the post-revolution. Denar depreciated about 60 per cent. Whereas, EIU estimated Libyan GDP to fall over 8 per cent during 2016.

From security viewpoint, more than 300 kilometers of coastline are controlled by Islamic State. Sidra and other oil terminals were aimed by Daesh, even if the attack on oil port of Zuetina was repelled by Libya guards on Monday.

Libyan internal chaos increased again since December 17, when Tripoli, Tobruk and other factions reached agreement. New government formation is always more essential in order that UN intervention could stop Daesh advance and allow Libya to grow.
Giacomo Pratali

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Egypt: the “bloody” Red Sea

BreakingNews @en di

Yesterday, 3 foreign tourists were stabbed at Bella Vista Hotel by two suspected Daesh militants. The attack occurred in Hurghada, at a Egyptian Red Sea resort. One of the jihadist was killed by the police (Mohamed Hassan Mohamed Mahfouz, 22, student), while the other injured. As reported by local police, they were also armed with gun, explosives belt and an ISIS flag. While sources told the BBC their purpose was to kidnap tourists.

This assault happened after attack close to the Pyramids of Giza last Thursday, during Coptic Orthodox Christians celebration, and raid against a tourist bus carrying Israelis. Both of them were claimed by Islamic State.

Nigeria, Chibok girls: talks with Boko Haram?

BreakingNews @en di

Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari informed media he wants to negotiate with Boko Haram to Chibok girls’ release, after their kindapping in 2014: “If there is a plausible leader who tell us where are the girls, we’ll be ready to negotiate with them without preconditions, ” he told press.

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Meanwhile, the 2015 finished with other 80 killed. Last December 28, Boko Haram attacked on mosques, markets and bus stations through several young female suicide bomber. Terrorist attacks especially happened in Borno State and followed many others occured during December.

Statistics about Boko Haram are clear. Since 2014, at least 5600 civilians were killed, while over 2000 women and girls were kidnapped: they were reduced to slavery or enlisted. And, as reported by UNICEF, over 1 million children abandoned school among Nigeria, Camerun, Chad and Niger.
Giacomo Pratali

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Libya: waiting for UN approval

Miscellaneous di

As announced following the International Conference in Rome, the Libyan factions, all of Tripoli and Tobruk, signed deal for unitt government in Skhirat (Morocco).The Presidential Council, composed of president Sarraj Fayez, three vicepresidents on behalf of Tripolitania, Cyrenaica and Fezzan and other five representatives, have to form new government within 40 days. Moreover, the UN Security Council will vote terms of military operation in the next days, to make safe Tripoli and train local forces. This international coalition will be led by Italy, while Great Britain will send 1000 troops.

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December 17 the 90 representatives of the Assembly of Tobruk and 27 of the GNC Tripoli signed the agreement. The new Presidential Council, in addition to choose new government, will have to convince the presidents of two parliaments to accept the deal. Among the problems which should be solved, there is also the military intervention because several factions prefer the training of Libyan army, rather than a foreign operation.

The most important perspective is about the presence of a unique executive to allow, after Syria, to open another front to fight the Islamic State in Libya, where Sirte became the Caliphate stronghold.

Some US troops are already present, as reported by many international media. As well as France and Great Britain, which reached Libya through southern borders.

And Italy? As leaked out by Italian Defence, the non-intervention in Syria, the contribution to the NATO mission in Iraq (450 soldiers will defende the strategic Mosul Dam), clearly show Italian line: optimize the best efforts, humanly and logistically, to the nearest, and therefore more crucial, Libya.
Giacomo Pratali

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Libya: new government and UN intervention

BreakingNews @en di

At the end of the International Conference on Libya in Rome, the US secretary of State John Kerry discloses the new government is to be formed within 40 days . While “the implementation of UNSCR 2213 and other relevant Resolutions to address threats to Libya’s peace, security, and stability” will be voted on December 17.

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“We affirm our full support for the Libyan people in maintaining the unity of Libya and its institutions that function for the benefit of the whole Country.  A Government of National Accord based in the capital Tripoli is urgently needed to provide Libya the means to maintain governance, promote stability and economic development.  We stand with all Libyans who have demanded the swift formation of a Government of National Accord based upon the Skhirat Agreement, including representatives of the majority members of the House of Representatives and General National Congress, Independents, Municipalities, political parties, and civil society who convened in Tunis on December 10-11. We welcome the announcement that the Libya political dialogue members will sign the political agreement in Skhirat on December 16. We encourage all political actors to sign this final agreement on December 16 and call on all Libyans to unite behind the Libya Political Agreement and the Government of National Accord.”

This is the most important passage in the joint communique publish after the International Conference on Libya, occured in Rome on 13 December and endorsed by Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. This public statement was signed by the EU, UN, LAS, AU and the 17 participating countries: Algeria, Saudi Arabia, China, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, France, Germany, Jordan, Italy, Morocco, Qatar, United Kingdom, Russia, Spain , United States, Tunisia, Turkey. The next step will be the signing in Morocco on December 16 and the UN Security Council Resolution on December 17, when permanent member will vote the humanitarian military intervention.

The rapid advance by Daesh, the rise of Sirte as Caliphate stronghold and the failed institutions imposed a global solution. Moreover, other enemy countries, which fight in Libya through local groups, were present: Saudi Arabia and Egypt, Qatar and Turkey. Just as the same representative of Libya factions, including GNC and Tobruk-based parliament leaders.

Rome, as Syria peace talks in Vienna, followed the same method. Europe, the US, Russia and China worked together to support stabilization in Libya, in order to stop Daesh.

“We cannot allow the status quo in Libya to continue. It is dangerous for the viability of Libya, it is dangerous for Libyans, and now, because of the increase of the presence of Daesh [Isis] purposefully migrating there, it is dangerous for everyone,” the US secretary of State John Kerry said. Italy’s foreign minister Paolo Gentiloni believes that “time is fundamental and we must speed up the solution to the Libyan crisis in the face of threats that also come from terrorism.”

Therefore, Italy comes back protagonist of international scene, after cautious attitude towards Syrian front. After over a year of negotiations in Libya, the UN delegate Martin Kobler, succeded Bernardino Leon, wants to force more than 200 yes from Tobruk-based parliament representative on December 16, despite their scepticism.

The UN military operation nature is still to explain. Because of Daesh radicalization, it will not probably be a peacekeeping mission: “We reiterate our full support for the implementation of UNSCR 2213 and other relevant Resolutions to address threats to Libya’s peace, security, and stability. Those responsible for violence and those who obstruct and undermine Libya’s democratic transition must be held strictly accountable. We stand ready to support the implementation of the political agreement and underline our firm commitment to providing the Government of National Accord with full political backing and technical, economic, security and counter-terrorism assistance, as requested.”
Giacomo Pratali

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Libya: doubts about initial agreement

Middle East - Africa di

Almost a month after the end of Bernardino Leon’s role, GNC announced that it reached an initial agreement with Tobruk to lead a national unity government and elections. The draft, signed in Tunis on November 6, includes the creation of a committee of ten, equally shared between Tripoli and Tobruk, which will elect the new prime minister and two vice presidents.

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A deal which, although out of the UN draft of last October, was positively received by the UN envoy Martin Kobler and Italy. Indeed, Italian Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni said that his country “is ready to do its part.”

Since the first international conference on Libya in Rome on December 13, Italy will try to have a leading role in this crucial context, supported by the United States, but also by Russia, which, through its Foreign Minister Lavrov, said that Moscow “is ready to help Italy in Libya.”

As in Vienna after Paris attacks and raid on Raqqa, even this summit in Rome is very important. In addition to terror threat in Europe, an Iranian news agency reported that caliph al Baghdadi moved from Turkey to Libya last October. So, after French military reaction in Syria, now Italy and EU have to define what to do in Libya. Daesh is located almost 300 kilometres from Italian coast.
Giacomo Pratali

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Daesh: from Paris to Maiduguri

Europe/Middle East - Africa di

Paris attacks, on November 13, pointed out again that the terror threat reached a historical high within European borders. Beyond Syria and Iraq, where Daesh is headquartered, Africa is the favorite ISIS’s target. As proved by the last 15 days.
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More than 83 attacks all over the world from June 2014 to date, as reported by Le Monde. More than 1,600 victims. Raqqa (Syria) and Maiduguri (Nigeria) the most affected cities. Since March 2015, when the Nigerian militant group Boko Haram joined the Caliphate, terrorist actions in Africa have dramatically increased. As well as the several organizations that, from Mali to Egitto, hit in the name of ISIS.

After 129 killed in Paris, others were added from November to today:

Mali: More than 20 people were killed after a raid against Radisson Hotel last November 20. Thanks to military action by French and US special forces, 150 hostages were freed. After the arrest of two suspects, the local terrorist cells attacked on UN base at Kidal, killing 3 people.

Egypt: Two terrorist attacks. The first one, on November 24, was a double suicide attack which killed 4 people on a hotel in North Sinai. The second one, on November 28, when terrorists opened fire on checkpoint in Giza, killing 4 policemen.

Nigeria: Before a truck station, then a Shiite procession. These two places, near the capital Maiduguri, were the two targets of Boko Haram troops. Over 35 and 32 killed.

Camerun: Four different kamikaze actions of four girls killed at least 5 people in Fotokol on 21 November.

Tunisia: 13 killed following a suicide bomb attack against a bus carrying members of Tunisia’s presidential guard on 24 November in Tunis. As well as actions in the Bardo Museum and on Sousse beach last June, Daesh claimed responsibility.
Giacomo Pratali

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Pope: an African high risk trip

BreakingNews @en/Middle East - Africa/Miscellaneous di

High alert for Pope’s visit to Africa from November 25 to 30. The stages will be Kenya, Uganda and Central African Republic, where terror attack risk is high, as confirmed since last two months by the French intelligence.

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Despite the 148 dead in Kenyan university last April, Central African Republic causes the Holy See and the French Army, Head of the UN mission there, concern. High alert will be reached on November 29, at the opening of Jubilee of Mercy for Africa. Furthermore, Paris and, in particular, Mali hotel attacks further raise anxiety.

Obvious anxiety in Vatican Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin statement: “The Pope wants to go in Africa, even in its most critical stage, Central African Republic, where clashes resumed,” but “if there was ongoing conflicts, it would put Pope and population security at risk. ”

However, this anxiety does not deter the Pope, “ready – as said yesterday – to support interreligious dialogue to promote peaceful coexistence in your country.”

Central African Republic, as other African countries, lives an internal conflict because of civil war begun two and a half ago. Initially, it was not a religious but a political clash between rebels and regular army. After the deposition of President Bozize, this civil war became a religious conflict.

Analyzing the geography of the Central African Republic, the Center-South is more developed and mainly inhabited by Christians, who account for 80% of the total population. The North, however, is less developed and Muslims are in the majority. The lack of attention towards this territory from the capital city of Bangui favored rebels, who poured from aboard and the North of the country.

From 2003 to 2013, the protagonist of the Central African political scene was former President Bozize, twice elected and twice protected by the French army (in 2003 and 2006) during the two civil wars.

The first one (2003-2007) when the politician and soldier Michel Djotodia was his opponent. The second one, despite the cease-fire, in 2012, when presidential guards left him. After the resulting humanitarian crisis, Bozize fled to Cameroon. It was “Seleka”, a coalition of rebel group composed of Central Africans, Chadians and Sudaneses, to expel him.

In 2013, rebels become regular army. However, this new situation caused further clashes in the country, the third civil war since 2003. However, the UN resolution on December authorized France to a military intervention in Central African Republic.

In January 2014 it Catherine Samba-Panza, Christian but neutral, was elected president. She was the first woman to hold the post. Clashes between Muslims and Christians, however, continue to this day.
Giacomo Pratali

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France at war: G20 and EU openness

Defence/Europe/Middle East - Africa di

G20 in Turkey and the Eu Defense Ministers went along with a possible international cooperation in Syria. Although military, about deployment of ground troops, and political, the future of Assad, differences still divide the United States, Russia and European countries, military cooperation has already begun.

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Indeed, France continues to bomb Isis Raqqa strongholds. But, Syrian laic rebels reported that “jihadists ARE hiding among civilians”. And, just the possible civilians involvment is dividing European public opinion. So, while the state of war, declared by French President Hollande, finds consents concerning internal safety measures, the same can not be said on the outside ones.

Again in Syria, the United States and Russia are providing logistical help to France. Pphone conversation between Obama and Hollande has already established a cooperation plan, for which intelligence and special forces are involved. While Moscow has assured that “Moskva” missile cruiser will cooperate with French Navy.

Returning to the G20 in Antalya, the first meeting between Obama and Putin and the European leaders openings, as Merkel and Cameron, to a necessary military collaboration with the Kremlin against Isis, brought about a partial reconciliation among West and Russia. Moreover, there is Russian leader’s charget some G20 countries, as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey, to have privately funded Daesh.

There was also a turning point at European level, because the EU Council said unanimously yes to military help to France against ISIS, as required by the Hollande. The High Representative Mogherini announced that, for the first time, it’ll apply the mutual-defense clause, invoking article 42,7 of Lisbon Treaty. The EU countries must provide military aid to France to combat terrorism.

At last, Italian Prime Minister Renzi gave a partially opening to military operation in Libya because “you do not necessarily win with weapons”, he said. Until two weeks ago, the military intervention in Libya seemed the priority. The attacks in Paris, however, overturned international agenda. European leaders are inclining towards interventionism. The risk is that a military response caused by two event, the Russian plane crash and the terrorist action in France, do not contain a plan for post-conflict reconstruction, as happened in Libya in 2011.
Giacomo Pratali

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Libya: “Short-term outcome is impossible”

Europe/Middle East - Africa di

Italian cemetery profanation in Tripoli and supposed Libyan territorial waters violation from Italian ships. This November, diplomatic relations between Italy and Libya have risked to break off. For these issues, European Affairs interviewed Dr. Giovanna Ortu, President of Association of Italians Repatriated from Libya, expelled by Gaddafi, along with other 20 thousand compatriots, in 1970.

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Dr. Ortu, after Italian cemetery profanation, what was the position taken by the Italian Government? Did you receive support?

“I went to the Undersecretary for Foreign Affairs Mario Giro, with whom I had already scheduled an appointment before it happened this episode: he was very helpful, but also worried about Libyan context. Meanwhile, there was also UN mediator Bernardino Leon failure. The situation between different factions has become too complicated. In my opinion, this long-time duality between Tripoli and Tobruk increased the infighting: if the agreement was reached before, Gaddafi followers could not reorganize themselves and Islamic State could not take root “.

 

It is not the first time that the Italian cemetery in Libya was victim of similar actions. The last one was in January 2014. From your viewpoint, are these event advanced by anti-Italian reasons? Otherwise, by political factors?

“In my opinion, they are not advanced by anti-Italian reasons. The criminal acts happened up to 2000, which then led us to restore it in 2004, can be connected to petty crime. Even the incident in January 2014, or other latest ones, are of the same standard. However, I can not judge if the last one is politically motivated. Surely, our association feared for a long time that these desecrations could politically exploit. ”
In your opinion, is recent diplomatic incident between Italy and Libya an international strategy to exclude Rome from the leading role of a possible military action under the aegis of the UN?

“At the moment, there is a big difference between Libyan population feeling and those who speculate on the internal divisions to undermine relations between two countries. I think that agreement signed by Berlusconi and Gaddafi in 2008, in favor of Italy, caused a reaction of other European partners. Indeed, this country has several oil reserves and needed infrastructure works. That treaty had taken a slice too big to other European states. However, I would never have believed that Western countries to embark on a war, as happened in 2011, without having an institutional level, and the postwar economic “.
You know Libyan social context very well: is still possible to create a national unity government? Islamic State is always more rooted: can this organization really reflect Libyan religious context?

“I am very negative about a short-term positive outcome. Even more optimistic analysis made by geopolitical experts was failed. The Libya that I know is of many years ago. However, I’ve had opportunities to go to Tripoli three times. There I met young people were full of feeling but unschooled. However, I found women who worked in institution and with uncovered face. I think that it’s very difficult back to normal after a 40 years dictatorship. So, this weak population has been victim of Daesh propaganda. ”
Giacomo Pratali

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