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Libya: among possible agreement and endless immigration emergency

Europe/Middle East - Africa di

As agreed in Switzerland, factions will seek a political solution to national unity by September. Continue the migration emergency: for IOM, the Sicilian Channel is the most dangerous route in the Mediterranean Sea.

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Rapprochement in Geneva between different Libyan factions, including Tripoli government. In negotiations chaired by UN delegate Bernardino Leon, parties has unanimously declared to search a political solution of national unity within late August and early September. There is still no formal agreement, then. But, after July agreement reached in Algeria, now the Libyan National Congress could do its role. Although the greatest obstacle will be finding a meeting point between Misurata troops and General Haftar army.

Meanwhile, just two days ago, Prime Minister Abdullah al Thinni had announced his resignation at a Libyan TV. But, a few hours later, a spokesperson has denied the report.

There is, however, no time to lose in negotiations. In addition to the internal fight against Daesh, migration route to the Italian coast is hot. Over 2000 arrivals between Sicily and Calabria in the last three days. On 10 August, vessel Fiorillo of Italian Coast Guard was able to save at least 400 people. As well as more than 150 from Fenice of Italian Navy . Or the 450 migrants arrived at Augusta. And just as there have been many arrests of smugglers from the Italian authorities. The inhuman conditions and deaths at sea are a constant.

Number of deaths which is increasing compared to over 2,000 in early August, certified by the IOM. Compared to the Greek route, “the majority of migrants have lost their lives in the Sicilian Channel, along the central route of the Mediterranean linking Libya to Italy, “says the International Organization for Migration.

Strait of Sicily route is “disproportionately more dangerous than the other. Although Italy and Greece are both hit by migration flows very significant (approximately 97,000 and 90,500 respectively), mortality rates are very different: they were about 1,930 migrants died trying to reach Italy, as were about 60 migrants died en route to Greece. ”

“Despite these tragedies, the IOM recognizes the extraordinary efforts of the naval forces in the Mediterranean, which continue to save lives every day. The number of deaths has decreased significantly in recent months and this is largely due to the strengthening of the operation Triton: the Mediterranean is now patrolled by a larger number of vessels that can push up to where there are requests for help ” .

“They are almost 188,000 migrants rescued in the Mediterranean so far and IOM strongly supports the continuation of these activities. The organization believes that the number of migrants arriving in the coming months and that will increase the threshold of 200,000 will be reached very soon, ” the IOM statement ended.
Giacomo Pratali

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Ukraine: failure of Minsk 2 is around the corner

Europe di

Clashes between army and separatists returned to the same level in February. On the domestic front, agreement is distant. On the international side, Nato and Russia continue to flex their muscles.

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With the help of summer, civil war in Eastern Ukraine has again become bloody. The approach of winter, with the gas issue, contribute to intensify violence. On August 3, three soldiers have died following clashes with separatists. At the same time, it’s been the failure of negotiations to establish a buffer zone between the contact groups of Minsk Protocol 2.

There are many signs of this escalation. Domestic, between the Ukrainians, calling for the deposition of the weapons to pro-Russian in exchange for concessions of autonomy in the Constitution, and separatists, determined not to give in and will participate in the legislative process.

International. As a resurgence of the Cold War, Ukrainian civil war is an International showdown. With NATO, which wants to intensify even more the contribution of Force Integrations Units in Eastern Europe. With the United State and European Union, which intends to further increase sanctions against Moscow. With Russia, determined to exit from isolation from the Western partners.

This economical sanctions could push the Kremlin to not back down. The growth of separatists’ military training in Donbass is a clear indicator. Finally, the privileged relations with Syria and Iran, the new economic and commercial channels established with China and India, may tempt Washington to soften. The degeneration of the Ukrainian war and the chaos of the country are around the corner.
Giacomo Pratali

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Libya: International Community is waiting Tripoli

Crucial week for the composition of national unity government. Italian Foreign Minister Gentiloni and the UN ambassador Leon are pressing Tripoli Prime Minister Abusahmin. After the agreement, International Community could decide on military operation. But Isis has published a video against Tobruk executive branch.

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“This is a warning to Haftar and his companions, the atheists who gather in Parliament, we will not be tolerant, we will have pleasure to slit yours throats.” These are the words of jihadist Abu Yahya Al-Tunsi in a video posted (“Message of Sirte”) on internet by ISIS. The threats to the Tobruk government have arrived in crucial week for the formation of the national unity government because Tripoli will must decide if it wants to sign deal.

Last 1st August, Italian Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni Bernardino Leon and the UN mediator met Prime Minister Nuri Abusahmin Tripoli in Algeria. They tried to follow up Shikat agreement of two weeks ago, when all factions, except the government supported by the Muslim Brotherhood, agreed on Libyan national unity government. Despite many difficulties in the negotiations in recent months, Tripoli has continued to negotiate: so agreement could be not so far.

This deal is urgent for International Community, especially for the Eu. After institution of Libyan national unity government, an Un military mission could start. It could include Italy, France, Germany, Great Britain, Spain and the United States which, according to La Repubblica, would provide only logistical support to the operation.

Meanwhile, on August 3rd another video was broadcast on internet. It documents torture suffered by Al-Saadi Gaddafi, the Rais second son, in Tripoli prison. These bloody images bring the opening of an investigation by the Attorney General of Tripoli.
Giacomo Pratali

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Nigeria: the army frees 178 hostages

Blitz against Boko Haram emplacements. A few days before, Nigerian army has freed 71 women. Meanwhile, Benin announced to provide about 800 soldiers to defeat jihadist organization.

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Nigerian army has freed 178 hostages held by Boko Haram on Sunday 2 July. 67 of them were women and 101 children. Aviation has also announced that it has killed several militants after raid near Maiduguri. Other 71 women has been freed on 31st July.

A few hours earlier, Benin announced to provide about 800 soldiers to defeat the Boko Haram. Troops who will be added to weak (for lack of funds) African coalition composed of Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroon. Boko Haram is responsible for more than 800 killings since February, when Nigerian President Buhari was elected.

Not only Muslims, but also Christians were targeted by jihadist organization affiliated to Isis. On 30th July 20 fishermen, hailing from Chad, were beheaded in Nigeria: “It was a group of four men, but armed with machine guns and machetes. They explained that the fishermen are emulating Issa (the name of Jesus in the pages of the Koran), a prophet who with his words has attracted many people foolish, trying to corrupt the world,” said a 16 year old who survived the massacre.
Giacomo Pratali

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Boko Haram: 29 Christians killed

Middle East - Africa di

Islamists raid two villages in North-Eastern Nigeria. In recent weeks, several attack also on Cameroon and Chad. Finally, Obama rejected military support to Nigerian President Buhari.

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29 Christians have been killed in two villages of the Borno State on Tuesday 28th July. The attack, carried out by Boko Haram, has left few survivors. The news comes a few hours after the Nigerian army rescue of 30 people abducted in Dikwa by the Islamist cell.

Raid are more and more habitual. Often characters are children and teenagers. As thef 9 year old blown up at a nightclub in Maroua (Cameroon). Or the girl exploded in the market in Damaturo (Nigeria). Actions that led fifty dead and several wounded

The war against Boko Haram concerns more territories.The Cameroon government, in fact, ordered the temporary closure of mosques and Islamic schools in the villages on the border with Nigeria. In Chad, where terrorists attacked on N’Djamena, army killed about 20 militants last week. While most of the inhabitants of Lake Chad islands, targeted in recent weeks, have evacuated their homes.

These actions demonstrate even more a strategy already evident. First, Boko Haram wants to disclose its radicalization in Nigeria. In addition, in response to the alliance of Lagos with Cameroon and Chad, the organization has definitively crossed the borders of Borno State.

Meanwhile, International Community remains at the window. The Us Presidente Obama’s support in the words to his Nigerian counterpart Buhari, supplied in the meeting in Washington on July 21, appears weak. In practice, the request for military support, is rejected by the chief of the White House because a rule does not allow to help a state which does not respect the human rights. Conversely, Buhari answered talking about “support for the work of Boko Haram” by the US. The risk is that, like in Syria and Libya, even Nigeria, Chad and Cameroon fell in a permanently geopolitcal chaos.
Giacomo Pratali

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Iran, stop sanctions: geopolitical and economic effects

The Un resolution officially stops Teheran trade sanctions. “It’s the only chance to stop the nuclear program” the Us government said. While it’s an important commercial solution for Europe and Italy.

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Thanks to the UN resolution on 20th July, the Security Council has approved the end of sanctions against Iran. Go ahead, then, to the pact between the 5 + 1 and Teheran found in Vienna last 14th July. The document will come into effect no earlier than 90 days.

A historical agreement for the West in geopolitical and economic point of views. Geopolitical for the United States, as noted on July 23 by the US Secretary of State Kerry: “We could certainly expect Iran fall – he told the Congress -. But it was the best possible option. I hope that the Congress (addressing to the Republican Party, ed) approve because this is the only chance to stop the nuclear program and avoid the risk of a military clash,”he concluded.

But in addition to policy issues in the Arab world, solutions are also commercial. Executive Vice President and General Manager of Saras (Italian oil refining company) Dario Scaffardi, in a summit on business and finance, as well as underlining the benefits that the decline in oil prices has already resulted in the international market, has reported that, following the end of the embargo, his group has been contacted by Iran, got back to be the protagonist of the international market of crude oil. The return to oil production from Teheran “will carry a million barrels of crude oil per day on the market once the sanctions removed. With the possibility of adding 0.5-1 million barrels quickly enough, “said the manager of Moratti family factory.

On the Italian front, also, next 4th and 5th August, the Minister of Foreign Affairs Gentiloni Economic the Minister of Economical Development Federica Guidi will travel to Iran together with representatives of Italian largest industrial groups. The goal is getting back to a significant foreign trade with Teheran. In fact, before the revolution of 1979, Europe was the first import and export partner of the former Persia. In the early 1990s, this primacy went to Russia, which, in addition to geopolitical relations of friendship, made meaningful investment on oil and gas.
Giacomo Pratali

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Greece, Spannaus: “Why does the EU insist on a policy that doesn’t work?”

Europe/Miscellaneous di

Greece’s debt crisis is one of the hottest geopolitical issues at the moment. Germany imposed a rescue package last week. The United States played a role of political deterrence towards the EU, to avoid the possibility that Athens could go into Moscow’s sphere of influence. To talk about these issues, European Affairs interviewed Andrew Spannaus, journalist and Director of Transatlantico.info.

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With Tsipras’s full-scale surrender, has Greece essentially become a protectorate of Brussels, or better, of Berlin?

“Europe wasted a great opportunity. After talking about the need to shift from austerity to growth, in essence nothing has changed. The European establishment – led by Germany, but don’t let the others off the hook – doubled down, using every weapon possible rather than admit to the failure of its economic policy over the last twenty years.
This is a defeat not only for Greece, but for Europe itself, which has shown 1. that it is unwilling to recognize its own mistakes, and refuses to question the fanatical adherence to budget parameters; and 2. that in this form Europe is not compatible with democracy.
The biggest question is: who’s giving the orders in Brussels and Berlin? Why does the EU insist on a policy that doesn’t work? It’s one thing to have to clean up problems and inefficiencies from the past, but the decision to make the situation worse through a policy of budget cuts and new taxes shows that something else is afoot. Europe has abandoned the best parts of its own history and now answers to other interests.”

 

“Despite the mistakes made in the past five months, I am proud that I have defended our people.” This is what Tsipras said to the Greek Parliament, at the time of the vote on the measures imposed by Europe. In your view, Did Syriza betray its electoral mandate and the result of the referendum?

“Over the past few months the Greek government alternated between a hardline position and a softer one. The goal was always to influence the negotiations and obtain some concessions. At a certain point it looked like Tsipras had decided to get serious: first with the opening towards Russia, and then the referendum. In the end though, he gave in to the blackmail and demonstrated that he wasn’t willing to risk the consequences of a full break-up.
The Greek people clearly rejected austerity; the problem is that in theory they wanted to remain in Europe as well. So while Tsipras certainly deserves some criticism, the fact remains that the two goals were incompatible: Europe = austerity, so there was no solution.
It’s not over yet. If the plan that Greece has accepted is actually implemented then the situation will get even worse; things could flair up again soon. Moreover, the political debate has changed: it’s impossible now to hide the contradictions and weaknesses of the current economic policy. Sooner or later there will be political leaders, and maybe entire countries, who will refuse to continue in this direction.”

 

The International Monetary Fund has said that Greece’s debt is unsustainable. Will the EU plan go forward anyway?

“The plan will go forward, but it won’t work. The first “rescue” packages for Greece – in which public money was used to save the private banks, in particular those in Germany and France – were supposed to create the conditions for economic recovery. The same was said for Italy. In reality the result was a drop in GDP, at catastrophic levels in Greece (-30%).
The notion that this type of debt can be repaid through spending cuts is simply absurd. The solution is to restructure and cancel part of the debt, and above all to implement a policy of investment to spur growth. This means ignoring certain dogmas, for example by increasing productive public spending. The part of the debt which is real, and not just due to speculative maneuvers, can be repaid only if the economy is actually growing; the current policy prohibits this, and thus can only fail.”

 

How big a role did the United States play in facilitating the negotiations between the EU and Greece? Was there, and is there, a real possibility that Athens could get closer to Moscow?

“A myth exists in Europe, about how the United States is against the Euro and afraid of the European Union. However, even if we were to grant the premise that the U.S. sees Europe only as a competitor, there is nothing to be afraid of as long as the current economic policy remains in place.
In the name of political union the strength and cohesion of the nations of Europe is being destroyed. The foundation of the EU was quite different, but starting in the 1990s a shift was made to the so-called “free market” policy that allowed large financial interests to dominate the economy. This is good for a few, not for the many.
Secondly, this myth has been debunked by the American position in this crisis: the U.S. didn’t want to see Europe break up, precisely due to the risk of a geopolitical shock. Tsipras showed that he understood the stakes when in St. Petersburg he said that a “new economic world is being formed,” while “the center of gravity of economic development is shifting.”
The West decided to close ranks, to avoid giving an opening to our “enemy” Putin. However the reality is that Europe’s policy of continuous austerity risks making the alternative of the BRICS even more attractive: numerous countries are already breaking away from the Western financial institutions precisely in order to avoid being controlled by a system dominated by large financial interests.”
Giacomo Pratali

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Eu, migrants: deal to 32,000 of the arrivals

Europe di

Backwars step about migrants’ redistribution. Yesterday, Eu’s 28 member decided to reshuffle about 32,000 people instead 40,000 (arrived in Italy and Greece in 2015), like set last 26 June by the European Commission. To these, over 20,000 refugees, Syrians and Eritreans, will be received.

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The tough negotiation between 25 and 26 June looks very far. The position taken by the President of the EU Council Tusk opposed to the President of Commission Juncker a month ago were probably a dramatise. As well as the quotas, proclaimed at the time as “compulsory”, are nothing more than “voluntary”.

Therefore about 20,000 migrants miss. Meanwhile, in October, about 32 thousand people arrived in Italy and Greece will be relocated to other countries. In addition to the announced “no” from Austria and Hungary, surprised the “yes” of Ireland to receive 600 people. To the top, however, there are Germany with about 10,000, France with almost 7000, with Netherlands about 2000.

On the refugees’ redistribution, numbers are different. As well as Italy, Germany and France, the UK, Austria and Spain, in addition to the presence of non-EU countries such as Switzerland and Norway, have specially decided to accept Syrians and Eritreans.

In addition to the loewst agreement, the 28 countries have not delivered yet on the quotas for 2016. The Italian Minister of the Interior Alfano believe that this deal is “good for Italy”. But this speech clashes Prime Minister Renzi’s words a months ago to Eu Council assembly: “If you do not agree on the distribution of 40,000 migrants, are not worthy to call Europe. If you want the voluntary, Keep it”. What has changed in the meantime?
Giacomo Pratali

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Nigeria and Cameroon: over 70 killed

Middle East - Africa di

Boko Haram have still signed other slaughters. About 200 victims since beginning of July. The Jihadist organization have also offered the 200 Chibok students kidnapped in April 2014 in return for sixteen detained militants.

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Boko Haram is continuing to claim victims. Over 70 killed in the last days in State of Borno and in Fotokol, Cameroon, Terroristic organization is revealing its vitality after the African countries alliance in the last months.

After the condemnation of the United Nations, President Buhari has removed the leaders of the Armed Forces, following criticism received. However, after the bloody actions of this July, which weaked many Muslim religion victims, it’s clear that Boko Haram is judging as a “traitor” the new head of state elected in March because it’s a moderate Muslim. And it justifies last slaughters in Nigeria, Cameroon and Chad.

Meanwhile, on 8th July, a NGO’s representative have reported an exchange proposed by Boko Haram to the Nigerian government. The terrorist organization would release 200 Chibok students, abducted in April 2014, in exchange for sixteen jihadists captured by the army.
Giacomo Pratali

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Iran nuclear deal: pros and cons

After 16 days of negotiations, yesterday the US, EU, Russia, Great Britain and China, and Iran reached historical deal on the nuclear program in Vienna. A pact that works for reduction of he production of uranium in Teheran for the next 10 years. And, at the same time, it stops sanctions and trade sanctions.

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Although this is the formal end to decades of conflict with the West, especially during the Presidency of George W. Bush, the Israel’s contrary reaction and the contemporart and inconsistent alliance between Washington and Sunni’s countries, like Saudi Arabia, could be a warning for the International Community.

Inspired by the cartel the previous April 3, the agreement includes four key points. The cut of 98% of the stocks of enriched uranium. The use of centrifuges reduced to two-thirds. The possibility, not automatic,of Alea inspections on Iran’s nuclear facilities, after approval of the court arbitrary composed by the same countries that have signed the agreement. The gradual reduction of the arms embargo within the next five years. The UN resolution is expected next week, when it meets the Security Council.

The heart of the matter between the US and Iran is mainly the use of enriched uranium for civilian and not military. But also there’s the will to create a diplomat axiswith the biggest Shiite state in the Middle East, able to support the Assad regime in Syria or Hezbollah in Lebanon and decisive in the reconquest of the north-western territories in Iraq, now under the Caliphate.

Additionally, beyond this agreement, there’s the oil question. Iran is the fourth largest producer in the world and, with the end of the embargo, will increase its production. The effect could be the oil drum’s fall in price on the International Markets. Moreover, until the seventies, Europe was the first foreign market for Teheran.

US President Obama said: “No deal means a greater chance of more war in the Middle East. America negotiated from a position of strength and principle and stopped the spread of nuclear weapons. The comprehensive, long-term deal, demonstrated that American diplomacy can bring meaningful change”. And warned Congress he would veto any legislation that prevented its successful implementation.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani talks about “historic deal which opened a new chapter in Iran’s relations with the world”. Eu High Representative Mogherini thinks that the deal is ‘a sign of hope for the entire world’. While is a “sigh of relief for the entire world” in Russian President Putin’s opinion.
The chorus, however, was not unanimous at all the International Community. Predictably, Israel’s response was not long in coming: “The agreement is a historical mistake. “The world is a much more dangerous place today than it was yesterday. The leading international powers have bet our collective future on a deal with the foremost sponsor of international terrorism. “In the coming decade, the deal will reward Iran, the terrorist regime in Tehran, with hundreds of billions of dollars. This cash bonanza will fuel Iran’s terrorism worldwide, its aggression in the region and its efforts to destroy Israel, which are ongoing”. Whereas an official of the government of Saudi Arabia denounced the possibility that Iran could “devastate the Middle East”.

The contradictions within the deal, as the contemporary US alliance with Saudi coalition in Yemen against Houtii (Shiite’s faction supported by Tehran), could bring a long-term strategy. The chance given by the United States and its allies to Iran is directed to the Iranian civil society. The opening to the outside could bring the Shiites and the Sunnis to talks again. This could be an effective weapon against the expansionism of the Islamic State.

Not only abroad. Much of the criticism have come from the United States’s press. Bret Stephen (Wall Street Journal) said that “the agreement will be disastrous” and “unlikely Iran’s foreign policy will change”. Indeed, the deal could backfire on Washington.

 

Giacomo Pratali

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