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Syria: Turkish-Backed Rebels Take Dabiq

Asia @en di

Turkish-backed rebels have captured the Syrian town of Dabiq from the Islamic State, rebel commanders and monitors said Oct. 16, BBC reported. A rebel group also claimed it had recaptured the neighboring village of Soran. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said 1,200 Islamic State fighters had been brought in to defend Dabiq, while 2,000 rebel fighters were involved in the offensive, supported by Turkish tanks, artillery and airstrikes from international coalition warplanes. Resistance from Islamic State fighters was reportedly “minimal” before they eventually withdrew south toward al-Bab. Dabiq features heavily in Islamic State propaganda because of a prophecy of a climactic battle between Muslims and non-Muslims before the end of the world. In August, Turkey launched an offensive to clear the border region of the Islamic State and Kurdish rebels that had been making gains in northern Syria.

 

Source: STRATFOR

Russian Parliament Ratifies Indefinite Deployment of Air Force in Syria

Asia @en di

Russia’s lower house of parliament ratified on Friday an agreement with Syria that authorizes the deployment of a Russian air group at the Hmeimim airbase for an indefinite period of time. A Russian airforce group has been deployed to the Syrian Arab Republic following a request from Damascus.

The airforce group is located on the Hmeymim airfield in Latakia. Moscow will use the base ‘free-of-charge’ and will carry out supplies of necessary equipment and ammunition to the base without customs or any other duties, the memorandum says.

UNICEF urges for investment in Afghan children’s education

Asia @en di

UNICEF urged for more investment in meeting the basic needs of Afghan children’s education and health on Friday.

Welcoming the commitments made by the international donors at the Brussels Conference on Afghanistan, the UNICEF Regional Director for South Asia, Jean Gough said that investing in children’s education and other services would help address poverty and other issues that are driving so many families – including children — to leave the country.

The Philippines: Duerte accused of hundreds of murders

Asia @en/BreakingNews @en/Far East di

Duerte Rodrigo Roa, born in 1945, in May of 2016  won the presidential elections in the Philippines after a campaign by the exalted tones in which he spent its reputation of strong and unstoppable man, built from 1988 onwards occupying the chair of the Mayor of Davao, Capital the large island of Mindanao, in the southern archipelago.

Today, the statements released by a former death squad member, in front of the legislative assembly of the Senate, called Duerte into question as the inspirer and instigator of hundreds of killings during the years when he held the post of First Citizen of Davao.

Came to power with 39% of the votes, Duerte never rejected the nicknames that the press had attributed to him: Executioner, Punisher and other American B movie titles were obviously referring to the brutal and arbitrary methods with which the former mayor Duerte led his personal battle against corruption and drugs. On several occasions the local and international organizations for human rights expressed dismay and concern for the hundreds of extrajudicial executions carried out in the city of Davao during the long years of his government, whose victims were pusher, drug users, but also simple citizens.

Despite criticisms came even from the Vatican, the Filipinos, deeply Catholic, decided to grant their trust in Duerte, whose workhorse during the election campaign was the promise to kill 100,000 drug dealers and criminals in the first six months of Presidency. Five months after his elections, the 100,000 goal is still far away but organizations for Human Rights denounced the killing of about 3000 people and a substantial withdrawal of the state of law in large areas of the country. The police, which now seems to enjoy almost total impunity, has actually confirmed these figures.

The popularity of Duerte, during these five months of blood and violence, continued to grow, waterproof to complaints from NGOs and the many testimonies that prove the killing of civilians with clean records, including children, in the course of police operations.

Today, however, the testimony given before the Senate by Edgar Matobato, former member of a Davao death  squadron, opens even more disturbing scenarios and puts the president Duerte in an extremely awkward position.

The Lambada Boys, as the group of hit men was called, of which Matobato, 57 and fifty murders on his record, was member, would be responsible for hundreds of targeted killings, perpetrated in Davao in the last decades. The witness, called to speak in front of the gathered Senate by Senator Leila de Lima, former director of the Committee for Human Rights of the Philippines, said that Duerte was the instigator of these executions, whose victims were many local criminals and political opponents of the Mayor Duerte. Matobato spoke of bodies thrown to the crocodiles, torn bellies to prevent the appearance of the bodies buried in the sea and other brutalities attributable to orders came directly from Duerte, whose image appears now closer to that of a gangster then to that of a successful politician.

Leila de Lima, a great opponent of President and, according Matobato, missed target in 2009, when the hitmen team failed to complete her murder, will use the testimony to impeach Duerte and to create a logical and symbolic link between the violence that bloodied the city of Davao during his tenure, between 1988 and 2013, and today’s suspension of basic human rights, the basis of the war of the President to eradicate drug trafficking and exterminate the members of the small crime linked to the world of drug dealing.

Duerte, for now, did not answer the charges, but his spokesman have already begun to erect a defensive wall, questioning the credibility of Matobato and claiming that de Lima, who will soon have to appear before a parliamentary committee of inquiry, is embroiled in illicit activities related to drug trafficking.

The battle moves, therefore, in the open field and there are many who fear that a Duerte wounded, but still strong of popular support, could react in a disorderly way, dragging the country with him in a new era of violence and suspension of rights.

 

Luca Marchesini

Iran Afghanistan Railway, 3rd segment construction started today

Asia @en/BreakingNews @en di

The construction of the 3rd segment connecting Iran and Afghanistan started this morning. The ceremony was attended by Iran’s Minister of Roads and Urban Development Abbas Akhundi, Mahmoud Baligh, Afghanistan’s Minister of Public Works, and Eklil Ahmad Hakimi, Afghanistan’s Minister of Finance on Thursday at the border point of Chahsorkh in Herat Province of Afghanistan.

Afghanistan’s Minister of Finance Hakimi said that the rail track would boost the volume of trade between Iran and Afghanistan.

Operation Inherent Resolve, all Progress Degrading ISIL in Syria, Iraq

Americas/Asia @en/Defence di

WASHINGTON, Aug. 3, 2016 — Coalition forces, along with partners on the ground in Iraq and Syria, are furthering gains in countering the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, a Combined Joint Task Force Operation Inherent Resolve spokesman said today.

The coalition is continuing to carry out strikes against the “breadth and depth of [ISIL’s] formations in both Iraq and Syria,” according to Army Col. Christopher Garver, who spoke to Pentagon reporters via teleconference from a military installation in the Middle East.

“The coalition continues to maintain momentum achieved due to the progress made over the last year by the Iraqi security forces and our partner forces in Syria,” he said.

Since June 13, the coalition has conducted 10 strikes against foreign fighter facilities, including meeting, training and weapons storage facilities in both Iraq and Syria, Garver said.

“These strikes against foreign fighter facilitation networks degrade [ISIL’s] ability to reconstitute its combat power with fresh foreign fighters,” he said.

Garver said partnered forces on the ground in Iraq and Syria continue to demonstrate momentum against ISIL.

Progress in Manbij

The Syrian Arab Coalition and Syrian Democratic Forces have made progress in the Syrian city of Manbij in recent days, Garver said. There are gains toward the center of the city and on the eastern and southern flanks of Manbij, he said.

“We’ve also seen several hundred civilians fleeing Manbij make it safely out of the city and through the SAC lines,” he said. “This remains a very tough and deliberate fight, as the SAC clears the city house by house and room by room, while working to avoid civilian casualties.”

The coalition has conducted a total of 602 strikes in support of the Manbij operation, Garver said. The coalition believes more than half the city has been recovered at this time, he added.

Investigation of Civilian Casualties

The coalition has looked into three separate allegations of civilian casualties in reported strikes around Manbij, Garver said.

A strike that occurred July 19 is under formal investigation, as well as a strike that occurred July 28 northwest of Manbij, he said.

The coalition has determined reports of civilian casualties from an alleged strike on July 23 in a village east of Manbij has been deemed not credible enough to warrant further information, Garver said. The coalition did not conduct any strikes in that geographic area, he added.

Push to Isolate Mosul, Other Gains in Iraq

The push for the key city of Mosul continues, Garver said, with a tough fight expected for the city. The first step in the Iraqi plan, he pointed out, is to isolate the city and prevent movements in and out of the area.

ISIL is weakening inside Mosul, the largest ISIL-held city in Iraq, Garver said. The coalition is no longer seeing convoys of foreign fighters coming through Syria and then dividing up between Iraq and Syria, he said.

In northern Mosul, the coalition conducted an Aug. 1 strike against a former Saddam Hussein-era palace, he said. The strike was conducted by coalition aircraft from several contributing nations, according to Garver.

“The destruction of this facility will degrade [ISIL’s] ability to support, house and train foreign fighters as they flow into northern Iraq,” he said.

Elsewhere in Iraq, Iraqi security forces continue operations north of the Euphrates River to clear ISIL pockets in towns and neighborhoods north of the river, Garver said. Units from the 8th and 10th Iraqi army divisions are conducting those clearance operations, with support from the coalition, he said.

In the past 72 hours, the coalition has conducted six strikes along the Euphrates in support of Iraqi Security Forces, Garver said.

South China Sea: what scenarios after The Hague ruling

Asia @en/BreakingNews @en di

The forecasts have been met: The Permanent Court of Arbitration based at The Hague, called by the Philippines in defense of their fishing areas, has expressed yesterday in a ruling that meets Manila requests and disregards the Beijing claims on the islands of the South China Sea. The Court ruled that the Chinese expansion violate the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), an international agreement that regulates the right of the states on the oceans, signed by 166 nations, including China.

How was equally predictable, given the statements of Chinese leaders before the verdict, the Asian giant does not intend to respect the ruling of the Court, to which it never wanted to recognize any jurisdiction over the maritime dispute involving the major countries of Southeast Asia, as well in Japan, the US and, to a lesser extent, Australia.

The so-called “Nine-dash line” claimed by Beijing covers 90% of the South China Sea and finds its shaky historical justification in the control of the archipelago of Paracelsus Islands, militarily withdrawn from Vietnam in 1974. China, over the past three years, has strengthened unilaterally its position by building artificial island along the coral reefs, where then installed civilian and military outposts and asphalt airstrips for the landing of its aircrafts.

In fact, the judgment further stirs the waters in a geopolitical theater already subject to frequent storms. China is convinced that no act of the court will ever questioning its national interests in the area. Moreover, the Hague International Court has no binding instrument to force Beijing to respect its judgment. The Chinese government, however, is concerned that the judgment favorable to the Philippines may trigger a domino of appeals from other countries whose coasts are on the disputed stretch of sea, among the most strategic globally by fishing and commercial point of view. The US, meanwhile, could use the ruling to reaffirm the  freedom of navigation principle, the banner that Washington carries out to safeguard their own economic and military interests in the area.

Beijing’s response is likely to be more important than the ruling itself and could point the way for future relations between the hegemonic power of the area and the bloc of nations that attempts to contain its expansion. The question is: what will China do? It will try to direct the development of events in his favor, or try other unilateral actions, even at the cost of exacerbating tensions?

Beijing could decide to be accommodating and, without publicly accept the principles of the judgment, could mitigate its positions, stopping the construction of artificial islands and recognizing the right of fishing in the disputed waters for its neighbors. In the long run, a conciliatory attitude could benefit the growth of the country, ensuring peace and contributing to the emergence of an international legal system more sensitive to its interests.

The events may, however, take the opposite direction. China may reject the ruling and, with it, reject UNCLOS principles, accelerate the construction of artificial islands and strengthen the military outposts, showing muscles to the Philippines and other ASEAN countries.

Beijing could also opt for a third way: do nothing and ignore the ruling. But to cement his leadership China needs to produce rules, not to ignore them, offering an image of reliability in terms of international law. A proactive approach is the only one that would convince other Asian countries to recognize to China a leading role in the medium and long term.

All actors involved should, therefore, openly or tacitly accept the principles underlying the judgment without pushing for a rapid implementation. China would take time to gradually adapt its initiatives to the new standards, in the name of political stability and for the affirmation of an international law which build its supremacy within.

At the moment, it is not easy to imagine such reasonableness, because the Asian giant also feeds itself with nationalism and revanchism against the western and pro-Western powers, which in the past have used the gauntlet to impose their interests to China. An official statement released just before the verdict came by the Minister of Defense, and wasn’t too conciliatory: “Chinese armed forces will firmly safeguard national sovereignty, security and maritime interests and rights, firmly uphold regional peace and stability, and deal with all kinds of threats and challenges.”

Today Beijing feels as strong as ever and could decide to challenge the common rules to force opponents to accept its own. In this case even peace itself would be at risk, because an increase in the construction of civil and military infrastructure in the South China Sea would strengthen deterrence but would multiply the chances of accidents with the US and its allies. The escalation, at that point, may be rapid and uncontrollable.

Bangladesh: investigations after Dhaka attack

Asia @en/BreakingNews @en di

Investigations are continuing in Bangladesh to identify the network that has provided logistical support to the command of terrorists that on Friday night killed 20 civilians, mostly Italian and Japanese nationalities, in a coffee shop in the diplomatic area of ​​the capital Dhaka.

The attack was claimed by the Islamic State, and some photos that show the face of five of the young attackers next to the black flag of Daesh have been disseminated by the local press. The terrorists, according to preliminary reports, would be largely members of the middle class of Dhaka, with a recent past as students at a renowned university in English language in the capital.

Special forces intervened on Saturday morning, after nearly 12 hours of siege, killing six members of the commando and managing to rescue 13 hostages. Five of them are still being held in custody by the authorities, and in recent hours have been questioned by the police to clarify their position. Among them, according to reports from anonymous police sources, there would be a Canadian citizen of Bangladeshi origin and a British citizen born in Bangladesh. The authorities are in the meantime conducting wide-ranging investigations questioning even friends and relatives of the people detained.

The police would like first to clarify the position of a Bengali hostage, trapped with his wife and children in the restaurant during the attack. In some amateur videos taken from the outside of the restaurant, the man is talking to some of the bombers before receiving permission to move away from there with family members. He would be a teacher of a private university in Dhaka, returned to his homeland after 20 years in England. The police suspect that one of the attackers studied in the same department where the professor regularly holds its lessons and wants to verify if the two could be connected in the period prior the massacre.

Initially the police insisted in denying any connection between the command and the networks of international terrorism. After the first claims and dissemination, on sites close to Daesh, of some pictures that seem to portray the Holey Artisan Backery interiors and the scene of the massacre, the police has changed partially line, stating that the ongoing investigations are seeking to determine whether the terrorists have had links with foreign groups, but denied that the attack may have had an outside director.

The investigations have sparked a manhunt against 6 members of Jamaatul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), a local Islamist group, suspected of having collaborated in the organization of the assault and to have played a central role in the process of indoctrination of young terrorists, almost all educated and coming from the middle and high Bengali bourgeoisie. While the police try to locate and stop the six suspects, 130 members of the Islamist organization previously arrested are interrogated by judicial authorities seeking information useful to the investigation.

 

Luca Marchesini

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