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South China Sea: what scenarios after The Hague ruling

Asia @en/BreakingNews @en di

The forecasts have been met: The Permanent Court of Arbitration based at The Hague, called by the Philippines in defense of their fishing areas, has expressed yesterday in a ruling that meets Manila requests and disregards the Beijing claims on the islands of the South China Sea. The Court ruled that the Chinese expansion violate the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), an international agreement that regulates the right of the states on the oceans, signed by 166 nations, including China.

How was equally predictable, given the statements of Chinese leaders before the verdict, the Asian giant does not intend to respect the ruling of the Court, to which it never wanted to recognize any jurisdiction over the maritime dispute involving the major countries of Southeast Asia, as well in Japan, the US and, to a lesser extent, Australia.

The so-called “Nine-dash line” claimed by Beijing covers 90% of the South China Sea and finds its shaky historical justification in the control of the archipelago of Paracelsus Islands, militarily withdrawn from Vietnam in 1974. China, over the past three years, has strengthened unilaterally its position by building artificial island along the coral reefs, where then installed civilian and military outposts and asphalt airstrips for the landing of its aircrafts.

In fact, the judgment further stirs the waters in a geopolitical theater already subject to frequent storms. China is convinced that no act of the court will ever questioning its national interests in the area. Moreover, the Hague International Court has no binding instrument to force Beijing to respect its judgment. The Chinese government, however, is concerned that the judgment favorable to the Philippines may trigger a domino of appeals from other countries whose coasts are on the disputed stretch of sea, among the most strategic globally by fishing and commercial point of view. The US, meanwhile, could use the ruling to reaffirm the  freedom of navigation principle, the banner that Washington carries out to safeguard their own economic and military interests in the area.

Beijing’s response is likely to be more important than the ruling itself and could point the way for future relations between the hegemonic power of the area and the bloc of nations that attempts to contain its expansion. The question is: what will China do? It will try to direct the development of events in his favor, or try other unilateral actions, even at the cost of exacerbating tensions?

Beijing could decide to be accommodating and, without publicly accept the principles of the judgment, could mitigate its positions, stopping the construction of artificial islands and recognizing the right of fishing in the disputed waters for its neighbors. In the long run, a conciliatory attitude could benefit the growth of the country, ensuring peace and contributing to the emergence of an international legal system more sensitive to its interests.

The events may, however, take the opposite direction. China may reject the ruling and, with it, reject UNCLOS principles, accelerate the construction of artificial islands and strengthen the military outposts, showing muscles to the Philippines and other ASEAN countries.

Beijing could also opt for a third way: do nothing and ignore the ruling. But to cement his leadership China needs to produce rules, not to ignore them, offering an image of reliability in terms of international law. A proactive approach is the only one that would convince other Asian countries to recognize to China a leading role in the medium and long term.

All actors involved should, therefore, openly or tacitly accept the principles underlying the judgment without pushing for a rapid implementation. China would take time to gradually adapt its initiatives to the new standards, in the name of political stability and for the affirmation of an international law which build its supremacy within.

At the moment, it is not easy to imagine such reasonableness, because the Asian giant also feeds itself with nationalism and revanchism against the western and pro-Western powers, which in the past have used the gauntlet to impose their interests to China. An official statement released just before the verdict came by the Minister of Defense, and wasn’t too conciliatory: “Chinese armed forces will firmly safeguard national sovereignty, security and maritime interests and rights, firmly uphold regional peace and stability, and deal with all kinds of threats and challenges.”

Today Beijing feels as strong as ever and could decide to challenge the common rules to force opponents to accept its own. In this case even peace itself would be at risk, because an increase in the construction of civil and military infrastructure in the South China Sea would strengthen deterrence but would multiply the chances of accidents with the US and its allies. The escalation, at that point, may be rapid and uncontrollable.

The US warn Beijing in the South China Sea

Asia @en/BreakingNews @en di

The United States have decided to flex its muscles in the South China Sea to reassure regional allies and send a clear message to China, whose claims on the area appear more and more explicit.

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Two Americans Carrier Strike Group (CSG), each composed of a aircraft carriers and other warships of large size, started last Saturday a series of military exercises in the territorial waters of the Philippines, a key ally in the dispute for the control of the South Asian seas.

The drill involved the nuclear-powered aircraft carriers Ronald Reagan and John C. Stennis, 12,000 sailors, 140 aircraft and six battleships, a few days from the judgment that an international court is preparing to issue about the Chinese claims on the disputed sea stretches. The message is clear: the US does not intend to leave field to the Chinese opponent and regional allies, from the Philippines, will not be left alone in the face of Beijing’s pressures.

The American ships began to carry out air defense, maritime surveillance and long-range attack maneuvers, showcasing their firepower not far from the disputed waters, in which China continues its constructive activities of artificial atolls for civilian and military purposes.

The intent of the drills, in the formal language of the navy information bulletins, would be to promote the freedom of navigation and overflight in the waters and on the skies of the area. The statements that come from commands better clarify the purpose of the drill: ” (This) has been a great opportunity for us to train on how we would operate multiple Carrier Strike Sroups in a contested environment” explained Admiral John Alexander .

By Philippine, military mobilization is the clear demonstration that the US is determined to give credence to their ” ironclad commitment”, reiterated on several occasions, in favor Asian ally. ” e welcome the strong cooperation and partnership we have with our friends and allies … in light of (the dispute) where our legitimate rights have been overstepped” said Peter Galvez, spokesman of the Philippine Department of Defense.

The reference is to the decision, expected in a few weeks, in which the Court of Permanent Arbitration of The Hague will speak about the legitimacy of the Beijing claims on the the South China Sea waters, one of the most important navigable areas of the world, from economic and strategic points of view, on which also overlook Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan and on which the interests of China, US and Japan gather.

The ruling will likely be favorable to the Philippines, which addressed to the international court to counter Chinese expansion. China, for its part, has decided to ignore the court, to which does not recognize any jurisdiction over the matter, and did not take part in the proceedings.

 

Luca Marchesini

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China: Xinjiang, bilingualism to reduce ethnic tensions

Asia @en di

The peak of ethnic tension in Xinjiang Autonomous Region, China, was reached in July 2009, when in the capital of Urumqi thousands of Uyghurs clashed with Han ethnic groups. The police forces, sent to suppress clashes, were soon to face both sides and responded harshly. According to official figures released by the Chinese authorities the riots ended with 197 dead and 1721 injured. Other sources close to the Uyghurs, claimed that the victims were actually a few hundred. Human Rights Watch testified that there were police raids in the days following the clashes, with the subsequent disappearance of dozens of Uighur militants.

The tension between Uyghurs and Han has gone on for many decades, in fact since 1949, when the People’s Liberation Army took control of what was called the Second Republic of Eastern Turkestan, annexing it to the nascent Republic of China. That it was an imperialistic invasion or a peaceful annexation with the consent of the inhabitants has since then be subject of discussion and confrontation. Certainly, the strong independence movement that claims to represent 45% of the Uighur Muslim population against social and demographic invasion of the China of the Han, the main group of the whole country, has always fought to preserve the cultural specificity of Xinjiang minorities, coming several times to open conflict with the central state authorities.
Since 2009 there no other episodes of similar severity has happened, but accidents are not missed and tensions remain. The Han, which account for 41% of the region population compared to 45% of the Uyghurs, complain of discrimination on various fronts, including the workplace. Uyghurs and other minorities of the largest administrative division of the People’s Republic, continue instead to oppose what they see as China’s cultural imperialism, whose main instrument is identified in the imposition of Mandarin as the official language at the expense of the indigenous languages ​​of Turkmen origin.
To ease tensions and try to start an ethnic peace process, the central authorities have decided to promote a campaign for the dissemination of bilingualism in preschool education, as to allow the younger generations to master both Mandarin and indigenous languages. Xinjiang will thus be allowed to use central government funds to take from two to three years the period of bilingual preschool education provided to rural areas in the next four years, from 2016 to 2020. The aim is to bring 85% of children in the region, by 2020, to have access to these programs.
Funds budgeted for the first year is 154 million dollars and will be used for the construction of 552 bilingual kindergartens in the autonomous region, starting from the rural areas of the south.

 

Luca Marchesini

China renews its citizens surveillance system

Asia @en di

China, like all authoritarian systems, has the constant need to keep under control its own citizens to monitor their behaviors, anticipate possible conflicts and find appropriate solutions to the problems.

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The main obstacle, to the Asian giant, is its own size. Prepare effective monitoring standards for a billion and 375 million inhabitants is clearly not a simple task. The authority of the central government, however, have developed a new system that could make the control mechanisms most efficients.

Its name is “Grid management system” and, once implemented nationally, could allow the Chinese Communist Party to exercise a supervision ability never experienced before.

Until today, the information gathered by the Chinese authorities came from a number of different sources. Excessive diversification, combined with the frightening amount of information, made the analysis of collected data complex and confused. Over the past five years China has therefore been working on a state-of-the-art program that can streamline this analysis, relying on an orderly and consistent database.

The cornerstone of the new system is the grid administrator. On every inhabited area it is applied a grid, composed of a certain number of quadrants. In the case of a big city, the sectors could be thousands. Each official has the task to control a quadrant and the households within it, up to a maximum of two hundred.

The official collects information about each block of its competence and fill in a form which will then compose, together with the others, a huge overall database. Data may include rent prices, the number of inhabitants, their workplaces, what time you leave home and what time they came back.

The administrator also has the task of keeping eyes and ears open, to record any complaints or protests by citizens, on any topic. Each grievance is then transcribed on the database as a possible threat. The authorities, local or central, analyzing the data so aggregated, will understand if in a certain territory widespread expressions of discontent are manifesting and intervene early, before the protest mountains further. The answer will not necessarily be police; what matters, for the authorities, is the prevention of any form of organized conflict and the safeguarding of social stability.

The monitoring capacity will be an increasingly important element for the central government of China, since the slowdown in economic growth and the consolidation of a fierce industrial system seem destined to exacerbate economic and social inequality among citizens and to fuel the fire of protest.

 

Luca Marchesini

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The strategic interests of China and the US collide

Asia @en/BreakingNews @en/South Asia di

Over the past decade China has grown enormously, redefining its role in economic and geopolitical level and assuming the characteristics of a true global power. Despite the great changes and the fast pace that has marked them, the Beijing strategic imperatives continue to be the same, at least in part.

On top of the list is still the maintenance of internal unity in regions where prevails the Han ethnic group, located mainly along the two major rivers, the Yellow and the Yangtze. These territories are home to the bulk of China’s population and the main sectors of industry and national agriculture. Keeping the unity in this macro-areas is vital to ensure the cohesion of the Asian giant and to consolidate the role of the Communist Party of China as the hegemonic force. The goal is not easy, though. Uniformity is only theoretical, since the majority ethnic group in the country differs internally through cultural, social and economic articulations that complicate the search for a balance. The economic slowdown also contributes to make the picture even more complex.

Another key challenge concerns the control of the buffer regions, those more remote, inhabited in the past by nomadic populations, and characterized, for a long time, from poorly defined borders. Over the centuries the China of the Han fought with its neighbors, finally being able to integrate many peripheral regions, from Manchuria to Mongolia, passing through Xinjiang, Tibet and Yunnan. Today these areas are of strategic importance to Beijing and help make the country the power that is, but pose multiple challenges for the central government in terms of cohesion and ethnic policies.

The third link in the chain of priorities refers to the protection of the coasts, which cover about 18,000 kilometers from Vietnam to North Korea. For much of its history China has relied heavily on the inner dimensions and land trade routes to grab the necessary resources, paying little attention to the seas. For a long time, then, China did not want to have a powerful naval force, focusing on the defense of the coast from the ground and developing alternative navigation systems, through a complex network of internal channels. Today the situation has changed considerably, and China is strengthening its military fleet. In these waters, however, the distance with the American adversary is still considerable and defense policies still focus on strengthening coastal defenses.

Alongside these three historical imperatives, the economic growth of the past decade has revealed a fourth strategic objective: the defense of trade routes, resources and markets from foreign interference. Today China imports much as exports, is no longer independent as before. The foreign trade has become vital, as well as external investment to acquire technology and know-how. The affirmation of this new paradigm sought greater military, financial and policy presence internationally and has led inevitably to a more direct confrontation with the US and its strategic interests.

The US, on the external level, consider as vital the control of the oceans and the containment of emerging powers, China in the first place. Beijing, for its part, believes that its economic stability may be jeopardized by the American dominance on the seas and trade routes and is strengthening the fleet to increase the weight of his presence.

The strategic interests of the two powers collide and from the outcome of the battle will depend the future geopolitical order. The main game now is in the South China Sea where China claims ownership of some archipelagos to extend its control over the area and limit US hegemony on the southern Asia seas. The US sees this expansionist policy as a threat to freedom of navigation and as a signal of excessive aggression on the part of a rising power, more and more difficult to contain. Both countries have their own reasons and both are pushed by the imperative defense of their strategic interests.

The opposition has now extended also to the field of international finance. Thanks to the dollar power and to the influence that this guarantees in international markets, the US has always been able to dictate the rules of the international economy, relegating China to a secondary role. To break the system, China is pushing for the creation of an alternative trading and international finances system and shall seek to increase its role in the World Bank and other international financial institutions.

Ultimately, the crucial interests of China and the United States are entering in conflict at different levels, both militarily and economically, and none of the contenders can simply wait for the other making his moves. The risk of waiting would be likely to exceed the cost of action. The outcome of the battle is not yet predictable and we do not know how the current strategies will evolve. What is certain is that one of the contenders, if not both, will have to give up part of its strategic objectives.

 

Luca Marchesini

China’s fight against corruption passes through media control

Asia @en di

In China corruption is a widespread problem, despite the draconian penalties that affect the officials recognized guilty of illegal conduct. To limit its spread, the government, at the impulse of President Xi Jinping, is set to launch a new round of anti-corruption program initiated three years ago, intensifying efforts with respect to 2015. In fact, the Central Commission for Disciplinary Inspection (CCDI) plans to conduct over 100 inspections by the end of the year.

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The anti-corruption campaign announced by Xi Jinping was widely publicized on the national media. On 19th February, the Chinese leader has spread its message through the country’s three major news agencies: Xinhua, People’s Daily and CCTV. Simultaneously, Xi wanted to launch a warning to the world of information, stating that the national media must demonstrate absolute dedication and loyalty to the party and thus, indirectly, to the premier itself. The answer was not long in coming, in the sign of a willing submission. The home page of the three agencies were quickly colonized by a profusion of praise and support claims in favor of the party and its leadership, in view of the campaign launch.

According to analysts, Xi Jinping’s initiative does not aim simply to tighten anti-corruption controls, but responds to a total change of political agenda towards the media. The President wants to operate a crackdown on China’s information world, to better control the news dissemination. Wang Qishan, a member of the Politburo Standing Committee and head of the Central Commission for Disciplinary Inspection, contributed to corroborate this hypothesis. During the campaign presentation conference, Wang announced that the Ministry of Propaganda and the State Administration for printing, publishing, radio, film and television (which applies censorship directives) will be put under depth scrutiny. A further warning, not too veiled.

The anti-corruption operation, however, will cover all of the state structure focal points and will affect, according to the announcements, 36 different public bodies spread across all areas of expertise. From justice to agriculture, from the religious affairs to tourism, no one can be considered safe from the upcoming government inspectors investigations. Four provincial governments also will be sieved.

Many of the Commission’s targets are related to the management and implementation of industrial policies. The party wants to contribute thereby to the achievement of economic goals set for 2016, at national level, reducing the levels of over-production and encouraging the merger of major state industries. These changes, given its scale, could generate discontent and opposition within the concerned state agencies. And then, the role of the media in this story is clarified. Tighter control on information would ensure a favorable narrative of events and, therefore, a broader base of support for the transformation in agenda.

 

Luca Marchesini

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China: yes to naval base in the Horn of Africa

Asia @en di

Not only civil infrastructure for China in Africa. As reported on February 25 by Reuter, the Asian giant has begun the construction of a naval base on the coast of Djibouti whose function, officially, it will be to support humanitarian, peacekeeping and escort missions in the area of Eastern Africa. China would become the third country, with France and the United States, to have a naval military base in Djibouti, in the Horn of Africa, in a strategic position from a military point of view and from that of the control of commercial routes. Apart from the gear there, is the overall mechanism that matters. China wants to gradually expand its sphere of influence on the international stage, by setting up a network of civilian and military infrastructure that could support operations on a plan that would soon be called global.

The new base, which should be born in Obock, on the northern coast of Djibouti, will be at a distance of 7700 km from Beijing and will be the first naval installation outside the national borders. The initiative demonstrates how China is gradually wearing the shoes of the great power as its strategic vision is evolving toward a future in which it will exercise its global leadership.

China for many years has been maintaining an international presence in the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Aden and is part of the UN mission against piracy, launched in 2008. Since then, the Chinese warships docked in the ports of Djibouti over 50 times and the new installation would respond, in the first instance, the objective of ensuring a more organized berth and supply point. But China’s interests go far beyond the anti-piracy operations. Today, the new base could serve as the main joint in the chain of logistical support for peacekeeping operations under the UN flag in Africa. Tomorrow, it could become a bridgehead for any Chinese intervention in the continent, in defense of its national strategic interests. Meanwhile, it will strengthen the Chinese influence on the Indian Ocean, allowing Beijing to organize missions of maritime patrol aircraft directly from the African coast.

Over the past few years, China’s activism abroad mainly concerned the creation of civil and commercial infrastructures, on the basis of bilateral cooperation and development agreements. The military component has always existed, but has long remained concealed. Today this approach is changing and Beijing is increasingly determined to publicize the deployment of its fleet beyond the domestic sea, proving less reticence to openly take on an international role, even militarily.

The naval base in Djibouti will not be a simple supply landing, but will offer Chinese navy extensive logistical capabilities. With it, it will increase the Chinese presence on the ground, it will be possible to operate, presumably, a complete maintenance of ships, will be increased the ability to transport and storage ammunition and spare parts, will be built facilities for the crews and infrastructure for the aeronautics.

The Chinese expansion in the Indian Ocean does not depend, of course, only on the future of Djibouti. Chinese ships arrive regularly in many ports scattered between Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Oman, Yemen and Seychelles and, for the foreseeable future, Beijing is considering whether to make new agreements with Kenya, Tanzania and Namibia to further strengthen and differentiate its logistic options. To create integrated logistics hub for the Navy, in these countries, won’t be easy, however, for reasons which are, from time to time, political, of security or related to excessive competition.

Beyond the Horn of Africa and the Indian Ocean, the Beijing’s navy has extended the range of its raids in the last years, visiting the United States and several European countries, Africa and Latin America. The Chinese ships have passed through the Suez Canal, the Panama Canal and have doubled Cape Horn and the Cape of Good Hope, then to go into the Black Sea, the North Sea and the Bering. While the naval mission reached the limits of the navigable waters of the globe, it increases the need for more reliable landings for refueling and logistics. A requirement to become increasingly important in the coming years.

For now, the Chinese navy continues to rely heavily on support ships, to operate supplies on the high seas when needed or to replenish stocks of weapons and other materials. In this field, Chinese investments have increased massively, and  this year the navy has launched two new vessels Type 903A, for refueling at sea. It was also launched the construction of the new Type 901 in Guangzhou shipyards. The ship, once completed, will be capable of transporting 45,000 tons, a value never achieved before.

Compared to the United States, China is still in its first steps towards the realization of a global logistics network for its navy. American supremacy is not only based on the number of ships, but also about the wide availability of friendly ports in which to dock for refueling and maintenance works. China, to continue to grow on the seas and cement his new status as a global power, will have to concentrate its efforts in the strengthening of supply capacity at sea and in the progressive realization of a network of safe moorings.

The sea, for Beijing, is still too large.

 

Luca Marchesini

 

Beijing: more billionaires than New York

Asia @en di

 

It was only a matter of time, in fact. In 2014 we witnessed the overtaking of China on the United States in the challenge of GDP, two years later a new record confirms the change of paradigm in the global economy and the consolidation of the Asian giant as the new leader.

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According to data compiled by Hurun Report, a Chinese publisher specialized in the field of luxury, which annually draws up the list of the super rich of the country, the capital Beijing now has a number of billionaires higher than that claimed by New York. 100 to 95, is the final result, but the measure of change is not given by the five billionaires of difference, rather by the Chinese “rate of growth”. In the last year the exclusive club of billionaires in Beijing has opened its doors to 32 new members, compared with an increase of just 4 elements for  the economic and financial Big Apple élite. In third place, the Moscow of old and new riches, with 66 billionaires registered at the luxury registry.

The crisis in Asian markets, in recent weeks, has burned thousands of billions, but it does not seem, therefore, capable to stop the process of concentration of wealth in a few hands, as happens in every authentic capitalist country. “Despite its own slowdown and falling stock markets — says Rupert Hoogewerf, chief researcher and Chairman of Hurun Report –  China minted more new billionaires than any other country in the world last year, mainly on the back of new listings”.

Although the match between Beijing and New York appear to be particularly symbolic, China had already achieved similar record nationally, last October, as attested by the Hurun Report. According to the new data, just published, the Asian Dragon now offers accommodation and shelter to 568 billionaires, 90 more than last year. To get an idea, just know that the combined wealth of these 568 McDucks amount  to 1400 billion dollars, equal to the Gross Domestic Product of the entire Australia. Of these, 40% have less than forty years, a demographic advantage that may impact on the charts in the coming years. The United States, once again, arrive in second position, with 535 stars and stripes billionaires, two fewer than the previous year. And this is also a fact to think about.

At the level of individual wealth, however, the Chinese captains still don’t occupy the first rows. The richest, in China, is the tycoon Wiang Jianlin, basically unknown outside of national boundaries. Wang is chairman of Dalian Wanda Group, the largest Chinese real estate enterprise, and owns AMC Entertainment Holdings, the largest theater operator in the world. His personal fortune amount to 26 billion, according to Hurun Report, and in the ranking of the wealthiest men on the planet occupies the twenty-first position. Not enough to outclass people like Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg and the financier Warren Buffet.

Again, we imagine, it is only a matter of time before Jianglin and handful of his countrymen overtake US celebrities of wealth. The leading group include Jack Ma, founder of the mega-portal of e-commerce Alibaba and the heads of tech giants such as Tencent, Baidu and Xiaomi, which is preparing to invade Western markets with its economic and technologically advanced smartphones. Good Morning China.

 

Luca Marchesini

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Chinese missiles on a disputed island

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On 14 February, the images captured by a satellite, showed the presence of new military installations on a small island in the Paracels archipelago in the South China Sea, occupied by China and claimed by its neighbors, particularly Taiwan and Vietnam. The island, once known as Woody on nautical charts, was annexed by Beijing in 1956 under the name of Yongxing.

It is probably two HQ-9 batteries, able to arm eight surface-to-air missiles each, with a range which experts estimate at about 200 kilometers, capable of hitting aircraft, cruise missiles and ballistic. Their deployment further exacerbates the tension along the already troubled waters of the South China Sea, the theater for several years of a territorial dispute on a large scale, with major political, strategic and economic implications, in which all the powers of the region are involved, including Japan, and the United States, determined to defend its freedom of military and commercial shipping in the area and to limit the expansionist ambitions of Beijing.

The revelation, released yesterday by the Taiwanese authorities, has angered the Chinese who, at first, have thundered against the lies of the pro-Western propaganda, and subsequently reaffirmed their right to install weapons of “self-defense” on islands inhabited by Chinese civil and military personnel, “according to international law”.

The major concern for the Americans and their allies in the area, is that Beijing brings forward a unilateral project of militarization in the region, strengthening, officially for defensive purposes, a growing number of islands and neo-artificial islands, made ex- novo by Chinese engineers through massive drainage of the sandy ocean floor, there where once there were only semi-submerged sections of the reef.

The Yongxing island in fact already have an airstrip and, in November 2015, the satellites captured the image of a Chinese military jet landed on the outpost. The missiles deployment, according to experts interviewed by the BBC, may be a warning addressed to Vietnam, which continues to advance their claims on the archipelago, and to United States, after that, in January, an American missile destroyer sailed close to the island’s shores.

For now, Beijing has avoided to deploy military installations on the disputed islands of the Spratly archipelago, far away from the Chinese territorial waters and nestled between Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines, who are claiming themselves its possess. If the escalation would go so far south, Chinese action would be perceived not as a simple provocation but as an explicit act of hostility, with consequences difficult to predict.

The dispute on the South China Sea was also addressed during the summit just concluded in California, between the United States and the ASEAN countries, the organization of the Southeast Asia states. Just yesterday, President Obama, concluding  the meeting, reiterated the US call to stop any further “claim, new construction and militarization”, indirectly referring to Chinese activities in the area. Obama also said the US will continue ” will continue to fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows” adding that the United States will provide their support to allies in the region so that they can do the same. A support that has been explicitly called for by the Vietnamese Prime Minister during the summit. Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung has appealed directly to Obama to ask that the US has ” has a stronger voice and more practical and more efficient” to achieve the interruption of all initiatives aimed at changing the status quo, clearly referring to China and its constructive activities on the Spratly archipelago.

The purpose of the summit was to find new common solutions to counter Beijing’s expansionism in the South China Sea and preserve the right to free navigation, a primary geopolitical interest for the United States in that part of the world. China’s choice to deploy a missile battery on the island of Yongxing in conjunction with the US-ASEAN summit is obviously not random and tends to reiterate Beijing’s intention to dispose as they please of the territories under its control.

For Americans and its allies a military escalation, although on a minor scale, has the flavor of provocation. A US official said to the microphones of CNN that the deployment of the missiles, which occurred during the summit, was a ” further demonstration of China’s attempt to unilaterally change the status quo” in the South China Sea. On the same line  is Japan, that by the mouth of Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga Yoshihide  has branded as unacceptable the initiative of Beijing.

The dispute looks set to exacerbate, especially if China decides to proceed with the creation of military infrastructure on the islands under its control, going further south. Another variable in play concerns the energy and mineral resources that could hide under coral beds. Geological surveys and drilling have not started yet, at least officially, but the discovery of oil or natural gas could further jeopardize the relations between the powers bordering on that slice of ocean.

 

Luca Marchesini

The Spleen of Beijing

Asia @en di

To understand what is happening in China we can start from a grotesque news that comes from North America. The Canadian company Vitality Air had recently launched, a bit as a joke, a new product: bottles filled with the crystal clear air of the Rocky Mountains. Within a few days the stocks went sold out and all orders came from China. The country is in fact experiencing in recent weeks a real environmental emergency, because of the very high levels of smog and particulates recorded in major cities.

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After the “red alert” declared by the authorities last week, which paralyzed the capital Beijing with the closure of schools, construction sites and public offices, the health of Chinese citizens continue to be threatened. The problem is determined by the huge consumption of coal and other fossil fuels that pushes the economic growth of the Asian giant. The exhaust fumes of cars, despite popular belief, only partially contribute to the formation of smelling clouds that wrap Beijing and other big cities of the most industrialized regions. In fact, the country is experiencing its industrial revolution and the coal, like what happened in Europe in the nineteenth century, is feeding the motor of development. Making the due proportions, the consequences on environmental scale are dramatic and affect the entire planet.

After Beijing, Shanghai also has been enveloped by a thick smog, last Tuesday. In the economic capital of the country the air quality index value reached 300, which is considered “hazardous” to human health with possible long-term repercussions. Not much, compared to the values ​​recorded in the capital and in the northern cities last week, but still enough to encourage the local authorities to declare a “yellow alert” and intervene to limit construction activities and prohibit students to get out of school buildings during the morning, when the smog level are higher.

The difficulties on the environmental front that the country daily faces are even more striking, after the approval of the agreement on the climate conference Cop21 of Paris, which ended last week. Also the Chinese delegation joined the agreement, whose real effectiveness has been questioned by many in recent days, with judgments often far apart. For Chinese representatives, the final document is an acceptable compromise between the needs of the country’s development and the commitments to reduce greenhouse gases in the medium term. Certainly, the delegation headed by Xie Zhenhua pushed for a limitation of the legally binding commitments, but the non-subscription by the most polluting country in the world would have decreed the failure of the summit.

What does the Paris Agreement envisage? In short, the signatories undertake to reach the peak of emissions as soon as possible, then move on to a significant reduction of greenhouse gases in the second half of the century. The common objective, which is considered vital by the experts, is to limit the average increase in global temperatures “well below” the two degrees and focusing, if possible, to the maximum limit of 1.5 C. The progress of the plan will be monitored every five years and, by 2020, $ 100 billion a year will be allocated in favour of developing countries for the implementation of environmental projects. After 2020, the funding is expected to increase to an extent yet to be determined.

According to some observers, the limit of two degrees will be difficult to comply with, but for the first time China and other great polluting countries of the developing world have decided to formally join the common effort. The change of direction, according to Naomi Klein, is also determined by the fact that the living conditions of the Chinese are getting really worse, because of pollution, and that the children of the elites of the country are beginning to directly suffer its effects. It may not be necessary to slow the train of industrial development, but a gradual conversion from coal to other forms of more sustainable energy is already an unavoidable prospect.

And the same might be valid for India.

 
[/level-european-affairs]

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Luca Marchesini
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