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In China the pollution emergency continues

Asia @en di

The Paris summit Cop21 climate finished and delegates feverishly worked to find a final agreement that does not result in a mere declaration of intent. China was heavily involved in the debate, since it was suspended between the requirements of industrial development and the need to cut emissions and greenhouse gases, for the good of the planet and of its own citizens.

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China, despite some slowing, is still growing at a fast pace and feeds its industrial development with a high consumption of coal and other polluting fuels. December 2nd, at the Paris summit, Beijing has announced its plans to cut the main pollutant emissions over 4 years. By 2020 they will be cut by 60% and, at the same time, it should be a reduction, for industry, of 180 million tons of CO2 each year. It remains to understand what China means by “major pollutants” and if, among them, will be considered greenhouse gases.

Beyond the skepticism expressed by some, it seems that Beijing wants to redesign its growth model, reducing the use of coal and betting on forms of clean and renewable energy. The environmental issue is not only about the near future of the country. Even the present is heavily involved, because air pollution has reached alarming levels both in Beijing and in other major cities in China. Earlier this week, in the capital has been proclaimed the red alert, after that smog levels far in excess of the permitted range have been recorded, with harmful consequences for the health of citizens.

The emergency measures, which included the closure of schools and construction sites and a sharp reduction in private circulation, have proved effective, and the sun has returned to make its appearance in the skies long obscured of the megalopolis. The red alert now ceased, but the problem was just postponed. The warning pollution does not afflict only Beijing. In the big cities of northern China the authorities did not adopt measures whatsoever and tens of millions of people continue to breathe extremely toxic air, with values ​​of harmfulness even higher than those that led to the paralysis of the capital.

As reported by The New York Times, in Anyang, Henan Province, the air quality index showed a value of 999, three times higher than that registered in Beijing earlier this week. In the city of Handan, Hebei Province, it has been slightly better, with the indicator stopped at 822. For instance, a value of 300, the United States, is already considered dangerous to human health. Much of the pollution that grips Beijing is not produced from the drainpipes of cars, but comes from the north where, to meet industrial needs, are burned every day huge quantities of coal.

The central government and the provincial governments are therefore called upon to take prompt action to protect the health of their citizens, requiring the adoption of emergency procedures standardized in all regions of the country, involving also construction sites and factories. Once past the emergency, it will be necessaire to quickly understand how to balance the demands of industrial development which led China’s GDP to exceed the American one, with the imperatives of public health, in China and elsewhere. The commitments announced by the Chinese delegation to the climate conference in Paris seem a step in the right direction, but the claims will have to be followed by concrete action. In a very short time.

 

Luca Marchesini

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Dispute between the US and China for control of the South China Sea goes on

Asia @en di

During the Asia-Pacific Cooperation Summit in Manila, which ended last week, President Barack Obama reiterated the US position, calling on China to stop the construction of artificial islands and new infrastructure in the area of ​​sea dispute. The answer wasn’t long in coming. At the summit of the ASEAN countries, held in Kuala Lumpur, Beijing, through the Deputy Chinese Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin, accused Washington of wanting an escalation and defended the construction activities at sea, launched in 2013 and still in progress today.

First Obama, at the opening of the APEC summit in Manila, last Wednesday, pushed the issue of the South China Sea on the political agenda of the 21 leaders. After meeting with the President of the Philippines, Benigno S. Aquino III, Obama spoke to the press urging Beijing to cease all military activity in that part of the sea and to accept international arbitration to reconcile differences with its neighbors in South-East Asia.

“We agree on the need for bold steps to lower tensions – Mr. Obama said – including pledging to halt further reclamation, new construction and militarization of disputed areas in the South China Sea,”

Without taking a position on the front of the territorial claims made by the involved countries, the United States consider free navigation on the waters of the contended area as a vital point. For this reason, they confirmed their commitment to the side of the South Asian governments who oppose Chinese expansionism, and ensured the Allies a contribution of $ 250 million for military spending.

Beijing’s response came on November 22, during the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur. Deputy Chinese Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin asserted the legitimacy and legality of Chinese government initiatives, reiterating that China has no intention to terminate the building of new facilities off its southern coast. Zhenmin then replied to the American accusations, denying that Beijing is proceeding to a progressive militarization of the area. From Chinese prospective, Washington should instead halt its provocations after that, last month, an American navy ship crossed a maritime area that Beijing regards as part of its territorial waters.

“Building and maintaining necessary military facilities, this is what is required for China’s national defence and for the protection of those islands and reefs,” Deputy Foreign Minister said, adding that Beijing intends to “expand and upgrade” civil infrastructure ” to better serve commercial ships, fishermen, to help distressed vessels and provide more public services.”

The two main contenders positions are, therefore, very far and nothing portends, at this time, a change of course by the Chinese battleship.

Egypt: Suez Canal “nationalistic” expansion

Middle East - Africa di

Suez Canal expansion inaugurated yestarday. A great ceremony to demonstrate al Sisi eminence. It’s clear that he wants to follow Nasser’s footsteps.

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A great ceremony, held on August 6 in Ismailia, has ratified Suez Canal expansion. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Sisi has been protagonist of this parade, to which have contributed several world leaders, including the guest of honor the French President Francoise Hollande. Highlight has been simultaneous passage of two ships in the opposite directions.

Suez Canal, opened in 1869, now stretches 72 kilometers, accessible in both directions. Unlike the work infrastructure built by the French company Compagnie Universelle du Canal Maritime de Suez, for which it took ten years, this time realization has been only two: “We will continue to fight terrorism, and we will win. There is no doubt. Egyptians needed to feel, in a year’s time, that they have gained more confidence and security, “al Sisi shooted.

About this infrastructural work carried out, many analysts of international politics have raised doubts. Excluding the $ 8.2 billion spent, the Egyptian government estimate of obtaining $ 13.2 billion by 2023. And, always by the same date, the ships able to transit through the canal will be 97 per day, compared of 49 today.

Numbers which confirm the importance of this maritime route built in the 19th century. But gain difference is not so clear. Egyptian media campaign, as during opening ceremony, it is clearly pro al Sisi. He’s working on two sides.

Geopolitical, where Egypt, Saudi Arabia’s main ally in the Sunni world, definitely wants to become the main partner of the West against Isis in Libya, where it’s supporting Tobruk government. Not only. On the economical and business points of view, Suez Canal expansion will especially benefit China, which made several long term investiments in Africa and in South-Eastern port of Athens.

Internally, al Sisi moves are following Nasser, the second president of Egypt. In 1956, in fact, he nationalized Suez Canal, while in 1970 it was completed the massive Aswan High Dam. The major infrastructure projects and the common rivalry with the Muslim Brotherhood are bringing al Sisi at the same Nasser political line: through propaganda, he wants to become the undisputed leader of Egypt, redacting serious problems of stability in Sinai.
Giacomo Pratali

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Iran nuclear deal: pros and cons

Americas/Europe/Middle East - Africa di

After 16 days of negotiations, yesterday the US, EU, Russia, Great Britain and China, and Iran reached historical deal on the nuclear program in Vienna. A pact that works for reduction of he production of uranium in Teheran for the next 10 years. And, at the same time, it stops sanctions and trade sanctions.

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Although this is the formal end to decades of conflict with the West, especially during the Presidency of George W. Bush, the Israel’s contrary reaction and the contemporart and inconsistent alliance between Washington and Sunni’s countries, like Saudi Arabia, could be a warning for the International Community.

Inspired by the cartel the previous April 3, the agreement includes four key points. The cut of 98% of the stocks of enriched uranium. The use of centrifuges reduced to two-thirds. The possibility, not automatic,of Alea inspections on Iran’s nuclear facilities, after approval of the court arbitrary composed by the same countries that have signed the agreement. The gradual reduction of the arms embargo within the next five years. The UN resolution is expected next week, when it meets the Security Council.

The heart of the matter between the US and Iran is mainly the use of enriched uranium for civilian and not military. But also there’s the will to create a diplomat axiswith the biggest Shiite state in the Middle East, able to support the Assad regime in Syria or Hezbollah in Lebanon and decisive in the reconquest of the north-western territories in Iraq, now under the Caliphate.

Additionally, beyond this agreement, there’s the oil question. Iran is the fourth largest producer in the world and, with the end of the embargo, will increase its production. The effect could be the oil drum’s fall in price on the International Markets. Moreover, until the seventies, Europe was the first foreign market for Teheran.

US President Obama said: “No deal means a greater chance of more war in the Middle East. America negotiated from a position of strength and principle and stopped the spread of nuclear weapons. The comprehensive, long-term deal, demonstrated that American diplomacy can bring meaningful change”. And warned Congress he would veto any legislation that prevented its successful implementation.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani talks about “historic deal which opened a new chapter in Iran’s relations with the world”. Eu High Representative Mogherini thinks that the deal is ‘a sign of hope for the entire world’. While is a “sigh of relief for the entire world” in Russian President Putin’s opinion.
The chorus, however, was not unanimous at all the International Community. Predictably, Israel’s response was not long in coming: “The agreement is a historical mistake. “The world is a much more dangerous place today than it was yesterday. The leading international powers have bet our collective future on a deal with the foremost sponsor of international terrorism. “In the coming decade, the deal will reward Iran, the terrorist regime in Tehran, with hundreds of billions of dollars. This cash bonanza will fuel Iran’s terrorism worldwide, its aggression in the region and its efforts to destroy Israel, which are ongoing”. Whereas an official of the government of Saudi Arabia denounced the possibility that Iran could “devastate the Middle East”.

The contradictions within the deal, as the contemporary US alliance with Saudi coalition in Yemen against Houtii (Shiite’s faction supported by Tehran), could bring a long-term strategy. The chance given by the United States and its allies to Iran is directed to the Iranian civil society. The opening to the outside could bring the Shiites and the Sunnis to talks again. This could be an effective weapon against the expansionism of the Islamic State.

Not only abroad. Much of the criticism have come from the United States’s press. Bret Stephen (Wall Street Journal) said that “the agreement will be disastrous” and “unlikely Iran’s foreign policy will change”. Indeed, the deal could backfire on Washington.

 

Giacomo Pratali

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China, the Stock Market falls down

Asia @en/BreakingNews @en di

Almost 35% of the values lost since June, about 3000 billion dollars. Yesterday, the Shanghai Composite 5.9%. More than the Greek crisis, the International Community is watching to The dramatic sell-off in China’s main stock market . Shanghai and Shenzhen grew about 150% since June 2015. Then, the bubble.

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After this opening, other 500 listed companies in China have suspended their negotiations, bringing the total to 1,476 titles still, more than 50% of the total. The China Securities Regulatory Commission, the agency in charge of monitoring stock market, talks about”panic among investors.” Meanwhile, this fall is compared to Wall Street in 1929. The effects are in underway. Yesterday, Nikkei lost 3,1%, Hong Kong closed down 5,8%.

Communist Party is the real loser. Its promises of growth have not been kept. And the creation of a dedicated fund of $ 19 billion has been useless. The government would want to relieve the real economy as stock market losses hit consumer spending. CITIC Securities International, Chinese broker company, has clamored for cutting interest rates to limit the damage to the outbreak of this stock market bubble.
Giacomo Pratali

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India: waiting for carbon emissions limit

Asia @en/BreakingNews @en di

No target year for carbon emissions. It’s announced by Prakash Javadekar, Minister of Enviroment and Forest of India in Bbc’s interview today. So Delhi will not submit plans to cut pollutio to United Nations, while China disclosed to reduce its emissions by 60-65% within 2030 Us by 26-28 % within 2025.

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At least 40 countries submitted their carbon emission dropping. Now, they are expecting India, the third largest pollution maker in the world. But Delhi’s government want to continue on its way and will announced a new plan to Un: “Countries know where India stands and what its requirements [development needs] are and therefore nobody has asked us for [the] peaking year. We will soon submit our INDCs and they will be much ambitious than what the world is perceiving, “, Javadekar said again.

India don’t want to stop its oil and carbon production. So it announced that the oil-refining will double in the next five years. Moreover, Delhi concluded that at least 20% of population has no electricity and no chance of development.
Giacomo Pratali

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China, Maitra: “Xinjiang is not a religious, but an economical issue”

Asia @en di

European Affairs interviewed Ramtanu Maitra (analyst with the US-based Eir magazine. He contributes regularly in three Indian defense quarterlies: Aakrosh, Agni and the Indian Defence Review. He used to write on South Asia in the Asia Times online) to speak about Beijing “will have to move westward in order to bring over land oil and gas from Central Asia and Arabia”. And Xinjiang where Islam that “is surely not a major issue for the Uyghurs”.

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For the Uyghurs, do the issues of independence and religion go hand in hand?

“Religion is surely not a major issue for the Uyghurs. They do not seem to be ready to lay down their lives to protect their religion. But when a number of other factors that disturb them come into play against a powerful front, such as the Han-led Beijing, religious identity is displayed. Particularly since adherents of Islam, many of whom are victims of colonial West in the past, have begun to assert themselves in recent years, to display religion on their shirtsleeves is surely considered an effective weapon. Beijing has shown little competence in dealing with the Muslims and does not seem to realize that to dishonor Muslims, even in China where Muslims are a very small minority, it could mean localized trouble that Beijing may have to curb by using state’s authority, which often overlooks compassion and legality. Not allowing the Uyghurs, even to a handful of them who are in the workforce, not to fast during the Ramadan is a policy which could bring together the more assertive Uyghurs and get them in direct contact with more aggressive Muslims who are in the lookout to declare Jihad against any non-Islamic country”.

“I think most Uyghurs are not interested in seeking independence. There could be a few who do so, but majority of the Uyghurs just do not want to get swamped by the Hans. Since Beijing has adopted the policy of developing at least a minimal infrastructure in the western China ( read: Xinjiang) in order to gain an access to Central Asia, South Asia and Southwest Asia, it has brought in , and will be bringing in more in the future, many Hans from east of Xinjiang. These Hans are skilled, better paid and have come to settle down in Xinjiang to raise their families”.

“All these are issues with the Uyghurs, who really want to be left alone. However, that is not going to happen. While many Uyghurs will take it lying down this demographic change, undermining their absolute majority in Xinjiang ( not that different from what happened or what is happening in Tibet) over the years, some will stand up indignantly declaring it as a state policy to obliterate their identity, culture, their way of life and impose upon them the culture to be obedient to the Hans. The latter group of Uyghurs may talk about independence, but they cannot, like the Tibetans, can build up a case to justify their independence from China, a massive power. At the same time, many Uyghurs, who, and whose forefathers, had lived a hard life, welcome the developments that Beijing is bringing into Xinjiang. There is no way the rebellious Uyghurs can bring under one umbrella the entire community on a very abstract cause such as independence from China”.

 

Has the repopulation of Xinjiang, through the shifting of the Han there in the last 15 years, had a contrary effect with respect to Beijing’s aim to suppress the Uyghurs requests?

“Beijing’s policy to bring in Hans into Xinjiang during the last 15 years is not to undermine the Uyghurs. As I have pointed out earlier, China needs to develop an infrastructure to gain access to its West where seas of oil and gas exists that Beijing could use effectively to sustain and grow its economy. The process has unleashed migration of many Hans to Xinjiang, the Uyghur land, one may call it. The process has also modernized ,and will continue to modernize further, strips of Xinjiang. Uyghurs will draw benefit from all that, but they will also have to come into a daily contact with the Hans, many of whom have little understanding of Islamic do’s and don’t’s, their culture and the isolationist attitude of the Uyghurs. Some Hans may even go as far as trying to prove a phony Han superiority over the Uyghurs. These differences may result in clashes and conflicts from time to time, but there is no reason to believe that over many years, these two ethnic groups will not be able to live side by side”.

“Going back to answering your question, I believe Beijing’s policy is not to suppress the Uyghurs but loaded with non-compassion, Beijing saw no reason to make real social efforts to integrate the Uyghurs with the rest of China. On the other hand, if China wanted to suppress the Uyghurs, why didn’t Beijing bring in the Hans into Xinjiang between 1950 and 2000? They did not bring in the Hans into Xinjiang, because China was not involved then in its newly-adopted Silk Road economic policy”.

 

Does the fact that over 200 Chinese have gone to combat in Syria since 2012 make China one of the most at-risk countries as regards the Jihadi threat?

“No. This is ridiculous. If thousands of Islamic radicals have not posed a serious threat to 64 million Brits, why 200 radicals would pose any sort of problem to a nation of 1.2 billion? It will not. But what China does not want is being forced to use his hammer to deal with the Uyghurs. China wants a “peaceful rise”, that is its constant refrain. Violent acts to curb the Uyghur uprisings, however small those could be, would be played up by the western media in bold headlines and will be seized upon by the powers-that-be in the West to showcase that China, in essence, is ruthless, intolerant to other religious groups and will readily exercise force when it cannot get its way”.

 

The passage of the new Silk Road and the presence of oil and gas resources. Is economics the real driver behind Beijing’s anti-Islam policy in Xinjiang?

“A yes-and-no is my answer to that question. China will have to move westward in order to bring over land oil and gas from Central Asia and Arabia. But China will also need to bring in many mineral reserves in order to keep its factories churning out varieties of products. But it is not going to be an one-way road. China, with its very broad and capable production base, will actively seek markets in Central Asia, Southwest Asia, Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Crimea Europe et al. Already in Kyrgyzstan almost every item that is sold in the market carries the label: “Made in China”. That is the “yes” part of my answer”.

“The “no” part of the answer is that China is not doing this as an anti-Islam policy in Xinjiang. All the countries in China’s west who are expected to provide China an access to their valuable energy sources and many mineral reserves, with the exception of Russia and Georgia, are all Muslim nations. The “Stan” nations, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey and the entire Arabia are Islam-dominated nations. Beijing has so far been less than sensitive to the Uyghurs, at least as of now, but it is not foolish. It knows which side of the bread is buttered and who provides and butters it”.

Giacomo Pratali

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China, anti terrorism campaign: a quiet repression

Asia @en di

Xinjiang is the scene of a bloody repression of Beijing the minority Uighurs, a Muslim, has always defended the autonomy of its territory. Bejing decided to tighten anti terror campaign because of the Islamic terrorism and the economic reasons

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Jihadism does not concern only Arabic States and Western. September 11 attack, attempts in European capital cities, Al Qaeda attention-seeking behaviour in the beginning of 21st century, Islamic State propaganda. All these elements are misleading because not only United States and Europe must fight fondamentalism.

Sure enough anti-terrorism legislation became a prime interest for China. It’s especially adopted in Xinjiang, which borders on Mongolia, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, and where lives Uighurs, Sunnis of Turkish origin.

This area is very important from economic persepctive. Here new Silk Road will live again and will connect China to Europe by land and sea. Moreover, Xinjiang containes oil and gas resources. But all these grown factors are contrasting with jihadist threat. Furthermore, nationalist reason has been always present here because of Uighurs fights from 1911 to 1949 and Eastern Turkestan foundation for short times. So patriotic and religious sentiments are at the bottom of fights against government.

Bejing has to want to battle it. The “ethnic submergence” in Xinjiang began after September 11 attack and consists in Han, the great majority of Chineses, relocation in this territory. This political program is running as Uighurs has decreased from 80% to 45% of population.

This battle got worse since April 2014, when anti terrorism campaign became more aggressive. First of all because at least 200 Chineses went to Syria to enlist in Islamic State from 2012 to this year. Moreover, Uighurs attacks in Xinjiang was over 800 since 2013. So Bejing extended anti terrorism campaign to the end of 2015 and increased its brutality against population. Sure enough, over 2000 people was killed in July 2014. A forgotten slaughter, but on the same degree of Tien An Men Square or Tibet.

Furthermore, over 27000 suspected terrorists captured in 2014. 55 estimated jihadists are taken to trial up against 7000 people. While criminal acts regarding Uighurs increased of 45%. Moreover government forbade the burqa, the full beard and the Ramadan for public empolyees.This can stop to imperious economic development is therefore basic in Bejing action. Which is battling the problem in a different way than the West. Indeed, the government’s attitude is different towards the Hui, the other ethnic group of Islamic faith in China. This because the Hui have not hardly ever take position against Popular Republic, unlike the Uighur.

Xinjiang matter is becoming more and more considerable. This matter could propose again in Africa, where China owns several economical profits, and could turn in global problem. So Bejing could be an important geopolitical part of Internation Community against Islamic Fundamentalist.

Giacomo Pratali

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