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Trump wants the former Gen. Of Marines John Kelly as Secretary of Homeland Security

Americas/BreakingNews @en di

President-elect of the United States seems determined to designate the former Gen. of Marines John Kelly Secretary of Homeland Security. If the nomination will be approved, Kelly would become the second former military in Trump’s Cabinet , the first is the nominated Secretary of Defense James Mattis, and also just another one of the militaries that Trump would like to place at the highest level of the administration. Several members of Congress, both Democrats and Republicans, have expressed preoccupation for this militarization of senior federal levels of government, not remembering the exciting experiences of military-administrators both during the first term of Obama has in previous administrations.

Venezuelan President satisfied of the trade agreement signed with Putin

Americas/BreakingNews @en di

The Venezuelan President, returning from a state visit in Cuba, said that he was satisfied of the trade agreement signed with Russian President Putin. Russia, an historic commercial ally of Venezuela, will continue to supply grain and weapons to the country, also Maduro received assurances from Moscow about the increase of the oil price in 2017. Maduro has also mobilized all of his supporters for the manifestation of the December 17 in Caracas, which he hopes to silence an opposition that is becoming more cumbersome.

FBI: no evidence about a possible terrorist attack in Los Angeles

Americas/BreakingNews @en/Defence di

The FBI confirmed that they found no evidence about a possible terrorist attack on the Los Angeles subway. On Tuesday the city authorities ordered an increase of security measures on the red line metro after an anonymous call, made by an Australian phone line, warned that there would be an attack on the Universal metro station. The increased security measures are still operating as a precaution.

Mercosur meeting attended only by Bolivia

Americas/BreakingNews @en di

High tension inside the Mercosur, Venezuela has convened a meeting of the member countries at which participated only Bolivia, that still has not part of the agreement. The Venezuelan ambassador for Mercosur has expressed his irritation about the inconvenience. The Bolivian diplomacy is trying to mediate between Venezuela and the other members of Mercosur and the Venezuelan Ambassador in Montevideo does not exclude the possibility of a meeting between President Maduro and President Vazquez.

Why will Shinzo Abe pay tribute to victims of Pearl Harbour

Americas/Asia @en di

The alliance between the US and Japan looks set to strengthen further in the near future. The first sign was the meeting “frank and friendly” between the president-elect Trump and the Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe last November 17, the first informal meeting for the incoming administration with a foreign head of government. The second step, which is more symbolically and politically significant, is the announcement of Abe’s visit to Pearl Harbour, in concomitance with the celebrations in memory of Japanese air attack on US port of Hawaii, which claimed 2,400 victims and pushed the USA to enter the war 75 years ago, on December 7, 1941.

The visit, planned for the end of December, promises to be an act of historic significance that aims to strengthen ties between the two countries and to inaugurate a new phase in bilateral relations between the shores of the Pacific. The more concrete aspects concern the Japanese need to reduce the uncertainties regarding the future US policy toward the Rising Sun, fueled by the unregulated Trump presidential campaign that, among other things, urged Tokyo to contribute more to the costs for the US military bases on Japanese soil.

The visit will culminate with a summit between Japanese Prime Minister and the outgoing president Obama, the next 26 and 27 December, delivering a clear message to the new administration: the alliance works as it is and should not be questioned. Obama and Abe have decisively contributed, on several occasions, to cement strategic cooperation between their countries. In 2015 the common defense guidelines were updated and the Japanese Self-Defense Forces were authorized to intervene in the US Army side in a limited number of scenarios.

Trump, however, has not been kind to Japan during the recent presidential campaign. After asking for more money to continue to ensure the presence of American military bases in the Archipelago, the candidate Trump criticized Obama for having visited Hiroshima, in the role of first US president to pay homage to the victims of the nuclear bombing that ended the World War II in the Pacific. According to Trump, Obama would have also remembered the victims of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour where “thousands of American lives have been lost.”

The next visit of Abe, therefore, serve to compensate for the gesture of Obama’s opening and to give the new administration the image of a Japan willing to look at the past with different eyes. According to the analyst Kent Calder, from Johns Hopkins University, the Abe’s visit will make the alliance with Japan more acceptable for Trump supporters, facilitating future relations.

On the Japanese front, Abe has always seemed willing to question that page of national history, at least in part by recognizing the responsibilities of his country. During a joint session of Congress, last year, the Prime Minister of Sol Levante made express reference, for the first time, to the Pearl Harbour attack, without offering an official apology. Also in anticipation of the visit of late December, the issue of apologies will remain suspended. Abe intends to bring “comfort” to the Japanese victims of the attack of 75 years ago and pay tribute to their memory, but can not be expected to use a straightforward language that can be read at home as the formulation of a public apology in favor of the former enemy.

On the American front, Abe’s visit could hurt the feelings of the survivors victims relatives, a concern which the incoming administration is certainly very sensitive to. Josh Earnest, the current Press Secretary of the White House, does not rule out that the Japanese visit will embitter the victims of the attack, even after so much time. Earnest, however, said he is confident that many will put aside their dose of bitterness, recognizing the historic significance of the event.

The visit promises, then, to be a success for Obama, who seeks to consolidate its legacy with a symbolic and diplomatic victory at a time when its main achievements on the international front, the agreement on the Iranian nuclear and the reconciliation between Washington and Havana , risk to be overwhelmed by the wave of the new Trump administration.

Shinzo Abe will be the one ,however, to reap the best fruits. The visit will serve to the prime minister to shake off the label of the historical revisionist, who accompanies him since his election, and that tarnishes his image at home and especially abroad. Fumiaky Kubo, a historian interviewed by the Japan Times, argues that Abe, despite the bad reputation, has made ” has made more progress in wartime reconciliation than any other prime minister. This
could be a model case for a reconciliation and set an example that both sides have to make efforts”

At a time when the TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership) seems doomed to failure, and the territorial dispute over the islands between Kamchatka and Hokkaido that opposes Japan to Russia is stopped into a siding, a strengthening of the partnership with the US could be the succes Abe needs to boost his government’s action on the international stage. Even at the risk of watering down the verve of nationalism that has always characterized is administration.

Fidel Castro’s legacy

Americas di

On the 25th of November, Fidel Castro died at the age of 90, after governing Cuba from 1959 to 2008. As every man that changed the history course, his actions caused both admiration and resentment. Cuba declared 9 days of National mourning to honour the father of the revolution. The leader’s remains are exhibited at the José Martí Memorial in Havana and they will be carried to Stantiago de Cuba, where the funeral is due to be celebrated on the 4th of December. It is important to remember who was this personality who deeply influenced the course of the twentieth century.

Fidel Castro was born in 1926, in a wealthy family. He studied law at University and when he became a lawyer decided to take a stand for the poorest farmers, against the foreign companies on the island. His ideals led him to organize a first action against the Batista’s regime in 1953. However, the Moncada attack failed, and Castro was arrested. During the trial, he made his own defense speech, called “History will absolve me”. On that occasion, he demonstrated a great talent in public speech.

During the exile in Mexico, Fidel organized the revolution and met some of his future companions like Ernesto Guevara. The “Che” declared that he was fascinated by Castro’s charisma, so he decided to join the Cuban expedition. The revolution succeeded in 1959, thanks to the support of the population, as well as the clever use of the media.

Castro nationalized the foreign companies and properties on the island. This worsened the relations with the US, whose government imposed an economic embargo on Cuba. Fidel had to deal with the threat of an isolation of Cuba, so he decided to accept the protection of the Soviet Union.

However, the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1989 marked the most difficult moment in the Cuban revolution. The end of the economic support offered by the Soviet Union, caused a deep economic crisis. In 1990, the Cuban government declared the beginning of a “Special period”, in which it would adopt a series of measures to assure decent living conditions to the population. The government also adopted measures that changed the economic system, allowing small private businesses and foreign investments.

Castro’s foreign policy focused on the support to the anti-colonial and revolutionary movements in developing countries. Cuba sent military consultants to many countries like Bolivia, Congo and Angola. However, Cuba also carried out humanitarian missions in the poorest countries, sending doctors and offering scholarships to young people unable to access to education in their countries.

Let’s focus now on the most controversial aspects of Castro’s domestic policy. The most criticized policies were the restrictions on private property, businesses and the lack of free elections (including the opposition forces). Many Cubans decided to leave the country in order to find a better standard of life abroad. In fact, the economic deprivation, mainly dependent on the embargo, is considerable. However, the Cuban system obtained great achievements in welfare. The National health service is excellent and completely free, as well as all levels of education. The crucial point is that Cuba is not a parliamentary and representative regime, it is a socialist regime. As a consequence, in Cuba there is only one party, and the elections are held in order to choose the members of an Assembly that makes political decisions without having the power of changing the socialist nature of the State.

To sum up, Castro changed the Cuban history and his revolution was an example for the people who fought against a colonial or neo-colonial regime. He showed them that it was possible to achieve independence and to find a National development strategy, not imposed by any other country. If many people did not share the communist ideals of Castro, the most of them recognized the efforts made by Cuba to gain its independence. Castro’s policy influenced the international stage. Even though he was widely criticized during his life, today the media are reconsidering part of his actions. After the death of the Cuban leader, we have to ask ourselves whether History absolved him from all the accusations or not.

The new US allies in post-TPP world

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During his campaign, Trump frequently criticized Obama’s Asia policy, which was based on defending key regional allies such as Japan and South Korea. The most memorable part of Obama’s diplomatic effort in East Asia has been America’s “Pivot to Asia”, also described more recently as a rebalancing of its involvement in the Asia-Pacific region. Pivot to East Asia was a regional strategy, whose key areas of actions were: “strengthening bilateral security alliances; deepening the working relationships with emerging powers, including with China; engaging with regional multilateral institutions; expanding trade and investment; forging a broad-based military presence; and advancing democracy and human rights.” However there has been strong perception from China that all of these are part of US’ China containment policy. Supporters of this theory claim that the United States needs a weak, divided China to continue its hegemony in Asia. This is accomplished, the theory claims, by the United States establishing military, economic, and diplomatic ties with countries adjacent to China’s borders.

This is demonstrated by the fact that one of the main dispute between United States and China has concerned the South China Sea, where US military ships’ passage through China’s claimed exclusive economic zone was a key source of tension. As its military and economic power grew, China wanted to control more of its surrounding waters to guarantee its security needs, while the US felt it was in its national interests to minimize countries’ maritime claims and preserve its freedom to conduct military activities in the region.

Trump has sought to reassure both Tokyo and Seoul that the US would maintain a strong defensive posture in the Asia-Pacific region to protect its security and trade allies. But, the first meeting with the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at Trump Tower in Manhattan on Thursday realized few concrete results. Abe has already pointed out that, in case of failure of the TPP, the problem of the alternative options would be set in Japan and would bring to the RCEP, the pan-Asian agreement in negotiation, which excludes the Usa and it has China as principal economy. So in other words, if Washington withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, an increase in economic influence for the Chinese region will be inevitable. At a news conference in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on Monday, Abe said the TPP would be “meaningless” without the US and could not be renegotiated. Besides, Trump’s advisers said Trump would double down on Washington’s commitment to rebuilding the US military, including adding some 80 warships to the US Navy to counter China’s rapidly expanding military capabilities, and urging Japan and South Korea to share the cost of sustaining a US presence in the region. They suggested that the new president would follow Ronald Reagan’s hawkish foreign policy doctrine of peace through strength, which has been endorsed by every Republican presidential nominee since the 1980s.

The policy initiatives of Clinton would have led to continue with pivoting to Asia and the TPP, encircling China politically and militarily, and isolating China economically. But according to Chinese advisers, Trump could be an opportunity towards more boosting economic development to unite American society, unlike democratic presidents who wanted Washington to show strength through interference in other nations. For these reasons, China is likely to face less political and military pressure in the Asia-Pacific under Trump because his administration would be less keen to interfere in global ­affairs.

On Monday, Trump revealed his policy plans for his first 100 days in office and vowing to issue a note of intent to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership “from day one”. Instead he said he would “negotiate fair bilateral trade deals that bring jobs and industry back”. The TPP intentionally excluded China; it was a central part of outgoing President Barack Obama’s push to boost US influence in the Asia-Pacific region. Through creating the world’s biggest free-trade zone with 11 partner nations, a strategic alliance would be put in place on China’s doorstep with the aim of countering its rise. The day after this statement, the Chinese Vice-Premier Wang Yang said that US policies towards China may be uncertain, but he is optimistic about American choices to take advantage of market opportunities in China’s economy. So clearly there are elements of rivalry, challenges, United States and China have different political systems and political values that are really the opposite, but it doesn’t mean that they cannot find ways to work together when the world is faced with very pressing problem.

 

By Roberta Ciampo

The Japanese prime minister trusts Trump

Americas/Asia @en di

“Trump is a trustworthy leader.” After Thursday’s meeting in the Trump Tower in Manhattan, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the first world leader to meet President-elect Trump, said he’s confident that the new US administration will prove to be a reliable partner for his country. In front of reporters the Japanese Prime Minister has described as “frank and sincere” his meeting with Trump. ” The talks – he said – made me feel sure that we can build a relationship of trust”

Probably the Japanese government was hoping for a victory of Hillary Clinton to the US elections last November 8, also because of some alarming statements made by Trump during the election campaign, about the need for Japan to contribute more, in economic terms, to assist American troops on Japanese soil and to acquire a nuclear arsenal as a deterrent to North Korea’s threats . Another problematic point emerged during the campaign concerns the opposition declared by Trump to the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, on which the Japanese government strongly pointed, instead. Abe therefore wanted to meet Trump to express his concerns and, at the same time, reaffirm the commitment of his government to strengthen the alliance with the US, more than ever central today to Japan in diplomatic and strategic terms, especially to contain China and its hegemonic aims on the Pacific area.

Prime Minister Abe did not provide too many details on the talks content. Basically it was a preliminary meeting, for mutual knowing, in which the two leaders have avoided going into detail. It’s been, however, agreed that after January 20, the day of the settlement of Trump at the White House, will be scheduled a new meeting to ”  to cover a wider area in greater depth”. ” Any deeper conversations about policy and the relationship between Japan and the United States – reiterated Kellyanne Conway, an influential member of the electoral team of Trump – will have to wait until after the inauguration”.

It seems however that the meeting served to resize the Japanese concerns about future initiatives of the new US president on the Asian chessboard. Katsuyuki Kawai, an adviser to President Abe, has conducted talks with several members of the transition team, and some legislators, receiving assurances about the future of US-Japan relations. ” We don’t have to take each word that Mr. Trump said publicly lite rally”.

The meeting, in the protagonists declarations, thus served to reaffirm the strength of the bond between the two allies. Some analysts, however, consider premature the initiative of the Japanese Prime Minister, since Trump has not officially assumed the presidency and is completely absorbed by the formation of his government team. Koichi Nakano, a Sophia Univesrity political scientist interviewed by CNN, expressed his skepticism about Abe’s move: ” What is there to gain, I have no idea?” Abe) is not talking to a president yet.”

Less categorical was Jeffrey Kingston, director of Asian Studies at Japan’s Temple University, who, when asked again by CNN, gave a positive reading of the interview, at least from the Japanese prime minister’s point of view. According to Kingston, in fact, Abe would have a particular sympathy for a certain category of leaders, which Trump is likely to belong to. ” If you look at who Abe admires around the world, he likes strong leaders like Putin, Modi and Erdogan, who have despotic tendencies “.

Beyond the personal sympathies, the new administration Trump will have to look very carefully to Asia in coming years and will face a China increasingly strong. In this context, the alliance with Japan will play a strategic and indispensable role.

America’s new direction under President Trump

Americas di

On the 8th of November the American people elected the republican Donald Trump as the next President of the United States. However, the election results took almost everyone by surprise. In fact, the victory of Donald Trump was absolutely unexpected, mainly because of the polls that had predicted the success of Hillary Clinton. In any case, the election results show a deeply divided country between two completely different visions of America and opposite ideas of the US role on the international stage. In order to understand why Americans elected Donald Trump in spite of predictions, it will be useful to examine his domestic policy proposals as well as his foreign policy goals.

Donald Trump’s domestic policy can be summarized by the slogan “Make America great again”. He ran his campaign focusing on the American working class and emphasizing the idea that America has a great potential that has not been put into practice so far. The reasons, according to Trump, can be found in an excessive privilege of the financial economy at the expense of real economy. Real economy boosts the economic growth and makes it possible to achieve prosperity, while financial economy is considered responsible for the housing bubble, burst in 2007. Trump referred to his sustainers as a great movement willing to change America. His rhetoric has been considered as populism by a large part of the country, but the majority of the population saw in it a way to feel they had the power to change the direction of America. According to some experts the voters took a stand against the establishment. The refusal of the traditional political class is not something isolated in the international stage as we could see in June the Brexit referendum, as well as the recent electoral results in many European countries. The main tools to make America great again, in Trump’s opinion, are a tax cut for companies, more restrictive rules on migration and inflexible laws for criminals and terrorists. The tax cut is thought to sustain the economic growth by helping companies to remain in the US instead of delocalizing their production abroad. Trump’s position on migration has been largely criticized, because he proposed to build up a wall at the Mexican border and to expel all irregular foreigners living in the US. Finally, his position about criminals and terrorists has been considered racist by a large part of the US citizens. In particular, he proposed to introduce strict laws to solve the racial issue in the US, but this kind of measure alarmed the Afro-American population that has been protagonist of many protests during the last year, because they feel discriminated by the police. The rigidity of Donald Trump about the race issue is going to cause even more friction between the government and the Afro-American communities in the country.

Let’s now focus on Donald Trump’s foreign policy. His project can be identified by the word “isolationism”. As regards the economic relations with other countries he would like to introduce protectionist measures, because he thinks that the economic problems of the US are mainly due to the globalization process. This is not an isolated position if we look at the United Kingdom which will probably get out of the EU single market. The idea of focusing on America’s problems rather than carrying out military interventions worldwide is the argument that convinced voters. Americans do not understand the reasons of the great involvement of the US in the Middle East as well as in other parts of the world, as they are not achieving any advantage from that interventions. Trump argued, during his campaign, that the US should spend less money on NATO and interventions abroad, giving more military independence to their allies and using all the money to improve Americans’ standard of life. This isolationism in foreign policy leads to some important consequences. Firstly, the relations with the EU is going to change, in the military field as well as in the economic sector. In fact, Trump expressed his opposition to the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership which should be signed by the US and the EU. Nevertheless, the most important change in international relations would be a change of attitude towards Russia. For his part, President Putin expressed his willing to restore peaceful relations with the US. The main consequence of a reconciliation between the US and Russia would possibly be an agreement on the Syrian and Ukrainian crises. The stabilization of the Middle East as well as the solution of the Ukrainian crisis would remove the threat of a direct confrontation between Russia and the US. On the other hand, the future relations with China are uncertain. Trump made some declarations against China’s economic strategy and he expressed the will to be economically more independent from China. However, we should bear in mind that China possesses the major part of US external debt. Another aspect of Trump’s foreign policy, which would affect the entire world, is whether he will decide to respect or not the agreement on climate change negotiated in Paris the last year and entered into force few days ago. Finally, it is not clear if Trump will continue the reconciliation with Iran, and if he would respect the nuclear deal with that country.

In conclusion, it is too soon to make predictions about how America and its relations with the rest of the world will change. It mainly depends on whether Trump will respect his electoral program or not. According to his first public declarations he is probably going to moderate some points of his electoral program (in particular his positions about race, gays, Muslims etc. ). Trump announced his will to cooperate with Obama’s administration in order to preserve the most important achievements that have been reached over the last 8 years. Obama, for his part, expressed his support to the new President in order to allow him to succeed in his mandate.

 

 

The uncertain future of the relations between Cuba and the US

Americas/Politics di

Over the last two years, the relations between Cuba and the US have improved significantly. Obama’s administration carried out a great negotiation process through the last presidential mandate. The major points of Obama’s foreign policy towards Cuba have been the restore of diplomatic ties, the efforts to lift the embargo and the fight to close the Guantanamo prison. However, this period of reconciliation between the two countries is now threatened by the uncertain position that will assume the next President of the US, Donald Trump.

Cuba and the US severed diplomatic ties in 1961, after the revolutionaries headed by Fidel Castro took the power in 1959. The main reason of this choice was the fact that the new Cuban government nationalized all the US Companies and properties on the island. As a consequence, since 1960 the  US government imposed progressive economic sanctions on Cuba.

In 2014, after a period of bilateral talks, Obama and Raúl Castro announced that the two countries would restore diplomatic relations. In that occasion they reached an agreement on a prisoner swap. The peace talks were encouraged by Pope Francis.

In April 2015, President Obama and Raúl Castro met at the Summit of the Americas in Panama. It was the first time the leaders of the two countries met since 1961. Finally, in July 2015 Cuba and the US succeeded in restoring diplomatic ties, and embassies were opened in both countries. The reconciliation was accomplished when Obama visited Cuba in March 2016.

Nevertheless, there are some unsolved problems between the two countries. The first and the most difficult to solve is the embargo. The embargo has been partially lifted by Obama’s administration, by restoring commercial flights between the two countries, removing travel bans as well as restrictions on remittances and bank services. However, Obama couldn’t lift the embargo in a definitive way because of the opposition of the US Congress, which has to express its approval on the measure. Another unsolved problem of the negotiations with Cuba is the Guantanamo prison. The prison was opened in 2002 on a piece of territory of the Cuban island, which was taken by the US as a compensation in 1903 since they sustained Cuba in its independence war against Spanish colons. Cuba claims that territory since the revolution succeeded. Obama promised to close the prison in Guantanamo, because the public opinion and many organizations protested for the violations of human rights that were committed in it. In that prison, people suspected of terrorism were detained after the terrorist attacks of 2001, without having access to a fair trial. Even though Obama transferred most of the prisoners to other places, assuring the respect of their rights, he couldn’t close the prison so far.

The recent election of President Donald Trump on the 8th of November is probably going to affect the relations between the two countries. However, the way in which the situation will change is not clear enough. In fact, Trump didn’t express a clear position on Cuba. He just said few things about the relations with the Caribbean country. He criticized the agreement reached by Obama, saying that he would probably renegotiate a more advantageous deal. But at the same time he was accused, during the presidential campaign, of violating the embargo some years ago by sending executives of his Company to Cuba in order to find out if it was possible to do business on the island.

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