HoR (House of Representatives) did a pass toward reconciliation with the State Council, deciding to apply the LPA (Libyan Political Agreement) signed 16 month ago at Skhirat (Morocco). However, to implement it, HoR has imposed 6 points: 1. No foreign bodies (such as UNSMIL) to have any say on who takes part in discussions between the HoR and the State Council to amend the LPA, and the discussions must take place on Libyan soil; 2. The Presidency Council to consist of three people – a head and two deputies which will appoint a separate prime minister; 3. The prime minister to from a government to be submitted to the HoR for approval; 4. The State Council to consist of those elected to the General National Congress (GNC) on 7 July 2012; 5. Additional Article 8 (which calls for all powers of senior civil and military posts to be transferred to the Presidency Council) to be removed from LPA; 6. The Libyan National Army under the command of Field Marshal Khlifa Hafter and instituted by the HoR to be recognised as the sole legitimate armed force. If these conditions are respected, HoR declared the possibility to renew the dialogue between Libyan forces.
After a week, GNC voted its dissolution. So, former prime minister Ghwell left its office. Premier Serraj stregthened its position also because of support of Tripoli and Southern municipalities as well as Central Bank of Libya, Libyan Investment Authority and National Oil Corporation. But two issues remain. Tobruk has not already ratified GNA and Haftar, supported by Egypt, who has a greated influence over Libyan National Army. And Daesh, which doubled its militants to 6,000 fighters.
UN government reached its first target. After sanctions against Ghwell, who escaped to Misurata one week ago, yesterday GNC announced its dissolution thanks to 70 representetives (it will be the new State Council). Kobler arrival on Thursday got things moving again: “The HoR remains the legitimate body to endorse the GNA. I urge the HoR to hold a comprehensive session to vote on GNA in free will,”
UN support, with US, UK, Italy and France in the background, are convincing several institution and people to support GNA. From Misrata militias one week ago, to Central Bank, LIA, NOC and several municipalities in Tripoli and southwards now. Even former premier Ghwell could be persuaded that him and its business will not touch.
“We have been working with Prime Minister Sarraj and the Presidency Council to put this period of divisions and rivalry behind us,” NOC chairman Mustafa Sanalla, who predicted that exported barel production per day could return to 800 (now is 200).
From security viewpoint, situation is not difficult like one week ago. Tripoli is trying to return the capital of entire Libya, where GNA will have its stronghold. But Serraj has two missions.
The first one is to convince HoR to ratify UN government and Cyrenaica to support it. A UN military operation, with Italy as leader of international coalition (as remebered by U.S. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter on UsaToday) will be possible only if Tobruk accepts Moroccan deal. Moreover, Haftar influence over Libyan Army and Egyptian support are not helping to form the unity government. On the contrary, as reported by several international sources, former general would want to split Libya into two parts.
The second one is against Islamic State. Indeed, jihadists passed to 6,000 fightes in the last 12 to 18 months. Daesh is not only in Sirte, but also in Benghazi, Derna and Sabratha. However, local rebels are fighting ISIS: “They are contesting the growth of ISIS in several areas across Libya,” General David M. Rodriguez, head of U.S. Africa Command, said. “They don’t have the homegrown people that know as much about Libya like they did in Iraq and Syria. ”
So, this week was only the first step. Real Libyan problems has not already solved.