Vladimir Putin’s decision to stop flights on Egypt. British intelligence demonstration that the flight 7K9268 was blown up by a bomb. Islamic State claim and exultation on web sites close to Daesh. Egyptian government does not exclude an alleged attempt. The plane crashed on Sinai, in which 224 people died, could destabilize institutions and economy of Egypt.
As early as during the last summer, jihadist groups strategy on Sinai, where they are affiliated to Caliphate, was clear: hitting international targets in Egypt, in order to undermine its economy, beginning from tourism.
As reported by Il Fatto Quotidiano, during 2014, tourism has accounted for 14% of Egyptian GDP. 11.6% of population has worked in this industry. About 10 million foreign tourists, whose 2 million Russians has visited Pyramids or Sharm El-Sheik.
However, current high season could be damage by Russian airbus crush. With that, Egyptian economy, especially unemployment, should have a collapse. After the fall of Mubarak and the election of Morsi, then arrested, al Sisi could risk in the face of population. The same that, because of poverty, was the protagonist of the Arab Spring in 2011.
But the banning of Muslim Brotherhood and military intervention in Libya to defend the Tobruk have caused the reaction and a dual strategy from Daesh. On the Egyptian front, Caliphate’s strategy is to undermine stability of the country, as in Syria and Iraq, in order to undercut its talks with West, as during Mubarak regime and now with al Sisi.
As for geopolitical context, the purpose is to avoid the possible stabilization of neighboring Libya. This means the failure of national unity government, but also the outster of a possible partner of United Nations. The last electoral success and the Suez Canal expansion could become a vague recollection for Al Sisi if Egypt had a social and economic crack.