GEOPOLITICA DEL MONDO MODERNO

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Giugno 2017 - page 6

Arab Coalition: We welcome handover of Hudaydah port to neutral party

BreakingNews @en di

An official source has stated UN envoy Ahmed has said to Houthis Militias to hand over port of Houdaydah to a neutral party. These statements represent a confirmation of request, made by Arab coalition, UN to take charge of port Houdaydah,  in order to protect Yemeni people from smuggling of weapons, by Houthis Militias and confiscation of sanitation and humanitarian aids. Ahmed has expressed his regret over the lack of participation in meeting to discuss about exploiting the port, allowing entrance of humanitarian aids. The statement stressed out the important support by Arab coalition to assure the flow of aids from international subjects. In addition to this, he has also declared in meeting with Security Council, to use tax revenues and customs to finance basic services.

 

"I can't even imagine Serbia joining EU before Kosovo"

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Kosovo President Hashim Thaci says he cannot even imagine the EU accepting Serbia as its member before Kosovo. Thaci said that  the biggest concern in southeastern Europe was caused by “the fact that the EU is too slow in bringing countries of the region closer, which opens the door to all kinds of radicalisms, as well as strengthening of the Russian influence”. He thinks that the EU should therefore make decisions faster, and adds that he cannot imagine Serbia in the EU before Kosovo. “I cannot imagine something like this happening. I am confident that this will not be the case because Serbia would then certainly block Kosovo, and for an indefinite period of time. The EU knows very well what the attitude and behavior of Serbia is towards Kosovo. But, Serbia too cannot continue on the path of European while not behaving in a European way toward Kosovo”, stressed Thaci. According to him, Greater Albania is “a concept talked about by Belgrade to cover their ambition of creating a ‘Greater Serbia’”. Thaci claims that “the Kosovo army” will be established by the end of this year, after this has been suspended under international pressure.

Gunman dies, 36 dead after botched Philippines casino robbery

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At least 36 people died after a gunman burst into a Manila casino, firing shots and setting gaming tables alight, a spokesman for the Philippine president said on Friday, in what officials believe was a botched robbery attempt. There was no evidence linking the attack at the Resorts World Manila entertainment complex to fighting between government troops and Islamist militants in the country’s south, said Ernesto Abella, a spokesman for President Rodrigo Duterte. “All indications point to a criminal act by an apparently emotionally disturbed individual”, Abella told a media conference. “Although the perpetrator gave warning shots, there apparently was no indication that he wanted to do harm or shoot anyone”.

Bulgaria is on its Way to the Eurozone

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”Bulgaria is on its way to the eurozone”, Valdis Dombrovskis, EC Vice-President and European Commissioner for the Euro and Social Dialogue, said at the presentation of recommendations to Bulgaria in the framework of European Semester 2017. He pointed at significant imbalances in the economy since 2015, including the high corporate debt. On the other hand, Bulgarian authorities have taken measures in response to recommendations on the pension sector in 2016. There is a high level of outstanding debt. The measures, necessary in the banking sector, should be taken more quickly. Regarding debt collection, things there will also be improved, according to Dombrovskis. With regard to the eurozone, Dombrovskis said there are nominal exchange criteria. “We have discussed this issue. Some aspects look pretty well. You are walking towards the eurozone. You need to join the exchange rate mechanism”, he added.

The EU: a Million BAM for 250 new Jobs in BiH

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The European Union funded the Local Integrated Development” (LID) project, which is implemented by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in Bosnia and Herzegovina: it has the aim of supporting technological development and implementation of new investments in small and medium industries. The granting of a loan of 1.6 million is aimed at increasing competitiveness, creating new jobs and widening the market. Ms. Genoveva Ruiz Calavera, Director for the Western Balkans at the Directorate-General for European Neighbourhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations of the European Commission, said that this plan will allow internal authorities to improve the country’s living standards.

 

Saudi Arabia: first leg of Trump’s international trip

Policy/Politics di

Yesterday Donald Trump opened his first international trip as US President. The busy agenda includes The Vatican, Israel and Brussels, for a nine-day tour around Europe and the Middle East.  He chose Saudi Arabia for the inaugural meeting, a well-calculated choice that clearly marks the new administration’s approach toward one of the US historic and most strategic allies.

This international trip is a crucial political moment, especially for a newly elected president. Especially for a newly elected president that is already having political scandals back home. Indeed, it represents an excellent opportunity to meet several heads of states and government representatives all over the world, as well as a key moment to strengthen US alliances and to give a new breath to the nation posture in the international political arena.

The choice of Saudi Arabia as the first meeting is, therefore, a first quite unequivocal sign of the path President Trump wants to undertake. Saudi Arabia has always been one of the most important US allies in the region and the two countries share economic, political and strategic interests. Relations have been very close and friendly, showing a strong mutual understanding and the willingness to cooperate in several areas. However, under Obama’s administration, the happy marriage went through a very hard time, often referred by Saudi representatives as the worst in the US-Saudi history. Trump’s decision seems to be a smart move to show Saudi Arabia and the entire world the administration intention to go back to the strong and loyal relationship between the countries, after the challenging times of Mr Obama.

Several reasons stand behind this strategic choice, which can be read within the US-Saudi Arabia partnership’s framework, but also within the broader context of the US strategy in the Middle East.

Regarding US-Saudi relations, economic and security interests are the main issues on the table. Deals on weapons and defence systems are back on track after Obama stopped selling arms to the monarchy, worried about its possible influence –better said military support- in Yemen’s war (Saudi Arabia leads an international coalition supporting the government against the Houthi rebels). Trump seems not be sharing these concerns: the deals include, indeed, a Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) missile defence system, a C2BMC software system for battle command and control and communications as well as a package of satellite capabilities, all provided by Lockheed. Under consideration also combat vehicles made by BAE Systems PLC, including the Bradley Fighting Vehicle and M109 artillery vehicle. Contrary to the previous administration, the US appears to be supporting a more interventionist Saudi role in the region. Along the commercial agreements, Washington and Riyadh are also enhancing best practices in maritime, aviation and border security.

Looking at the broader US strategy in the Middle East, the visit in Saudi Arabia makes even more sense.

Since taking office, fighting the Islamic State (ISIS) has been Trump’s top national security priority. As the president made clear, ISIS -and terrorism in general- is not a regional problem, but one that affects the all international community, harming, therefore, also US interests back home and abroad. Similar consideration for the security conditions in the Middle East, which are essential to protect US economic and strategic interests in the region. These reasons made Trump reconsidering the US role in the Middle East. If Obama tried to step back and put some distance between the US politics and Middle Eastern affairs, giving the impression that the American power was turning the back to its allies in the region, Mr Trump has clearly shown different intentions.

The US is to re-take its posture in the Middle East, perhaps that security guarantor role that used to play in the past, willing to bring safety and stability in the region and, therefore, at the global level. Hence, the strong position taken by Iran’s antagonist behaviour and the attempt to reassure the US allies in the Gulf can be easily related to this new approach.

So, what does that mean in terms of regional security and international political games?

–    With the US support in fighting terrorism, the Gulf monarchies will be able to strengthen their positions against the Islamic State and terrorist groups. ISIS and other terrorist groups, indeed, have been trying to destabilise the Gulf monarchies. On the one hand, they took advantages of religious minorities and social differences in the countries. On the other, they benefited from an inconsistent European strategy in the region and a US administration probably more focused on domestic authoritarian issues and human rights records in its ISIS-fight partners than on the actual final goal. Trump seems to be setting priorities and boundaries: ISIS and terrorism come first; democracy and authoritarian tendency are a domestic issue that the US does not have to deal with now. To fight ISIS we need stable countries: simple as that. As the Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said “When everything is a priority, nothing is a priority. We must continue to keep our focus on the most urgent matter at hand.”

–    A new challenging US-Iran relation. If Obama’s era will be remembered in all history books for the multilateral nuclear deal with the Islamic Republic, Trump administration will unlikely follow the same path. As initial steps, Trump tightened sanctions against Iran, thus sending the message that time had changed and Iran must better behave. Several press statements denounced Iran’s antagonistic behaviour and defined the country as a plague for the Middle East and US interests there. No surprise, then, if engagement and accommodation of Obama’s office will be replaced by confrontation and hostility, a move very welcomed by the Arab countries.

–    By signing new weapon deals with Saudi Arabia, the US indirectly supports the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen, a conflict that involves Iran too. The Islamic Republic, indeed, militarily support the Houthi rebels against the government. As mentioned above, Iran is considered a real threat to Middle East stability.

–    A stronger commitment to the Middle East stability cannot overlook the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Trump is pursuing peace talks between Israel and Palestine to set a lasting agreement. The two-state solution has been a core pillar of US foreign policies for decades -an independent state of Palestine in West Bank and Gaza in return for Israel’s safety and security. However, Trump affirms to be also opened to a one-state solution, where Israel will be the only state and Palestinians will either become citizens of Israel or else live under permanent occupation without voting rights. As the president said, “I’m happy with the one they [Israelis and Palestinians] like the best”. Not easy to understand, though, how Palestinians could like the second one.

–    Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, a Muslim country but also the home of the most significant Islamic religious sites, can be read as a strategic move to achieve the role the US would like to play in the Middle East. With the implementation of the immigration policies in the States and several statements against the Muslims, President Trump has attracted severe criticisms, describing him and his policies as anti-Muslim. Not the best precondition for someone that aims at playing a greater security role in the region. Hence, visiting the Saudi monarchy shows that the US and Arab Muslims can actually form a partnership and cooperate on some issues.

–    At first glance, it is understandable to think that a more interventionist US role in the Middle East could upset Russia. On several capillary topics -such as Syria and Yemen- Russia and the US have quite divergent views and stand on the opposite sides of the fight. A US administration willing to play the police role in the region and -possibly- put feet on the ground is not exactly what the Kremlin would like to see. However, the scandal that has recently hit the White House- regarding Trump sharing highly classified information with the Russians-questions the real relationship between Washington and Moscow.

In conclusion, Trump’s meeting with Saudi Arabia’s leaders goes beyond the routine diplomatic visits, as it also entails powerful political messages to the Arab countries and the entire world. A new page for the US foreign policy that aims to bring the old glory and its leader role in the Middle East. It looks like the new administration is backed by a crispy and definite strategy; however, on some topics it seems like Trump is proceeding blindly, just reacting to whatever it happens. The question is: does he have a strategy in mind? The US is a very powerful nation and -willing or not- its actions have a substantial impact worldwide. Hopefully, there will be some still unrevealed aces in the hole: the last thing that the world would like to see is the US wandering around without knowing what to do. It is time to take sides, it is time to make decisions, and Trump seems to be quite confident in doing so. However, to be effective, those decisions need directions, need a strategy, a smart long term project aiming at a specific goal. Let’s hope the current US administration truly has one.

Paola Fratantoni

Wannacry, Antipublic e Cyberwar: le notizie della settimana

INNOVAZIONE/Report di

WANNACRY UPDATE

Summary:

  • Nonostante la minaccia Wannacry 1.0 sia stata archiviata, l’utilizzo di migliaia di server in giro per il mondo senza patch rende facile ai cyber-criminali una serie di nuovi attacchi.
  • La maggior parte di essi si basa su vulnerabilità scoperte ed exploit elaborati dal NSA o da gruppi ad esso collegati. Ciò risponderebbe ad un preciso intento di sabotaggio contro l’agenzia americana da parte del gruppo The Shadow Brokers (o dei loro mandanti).
  • A partire da giugno inizierà un’azione di rivelazione mensile di exploit da parte di TSB che potrebbero compromettere altri migliaia di sistemi.
  • La best practice rimane l’update regolare dei propri sistemi e l’attenzione agli alert dei provider di sicurezza informatica.

Continuano gli aggiornamenti su Wannacry, il ransomware che ha colpito circa 200mila sistemi in tutto il mondo. La versione iniziale del malware era stata arrestata dall’attivazione del killswitch (si rimanda all’analisi precedente per i dettagli www.europeanaffairs.media/it/2017/05/15/wannacry-il-malware-che-ricatta-il-mondo) ma da subito era circolata la voce di una versione 2.0. In realtà sembrano circolare diversi malware che sfruttano la stessa vulnerabilità di Windows (CVE-2017-0144), singolarmente o insieme ad altre, e che possono essere considerati successori del ransomware. Tra gli altri:

  • Una versione molto simile di Wcry è quella scoperta e arrestata da Matt Suiche, grazie ad un killswitch nel codice (un ping ad un dominio non registrato) simile alla versione 1.0.
  • Altri malware, Adylkuzz a.k.a BlueDoom e UIWIX, sono in circolazione ma non hanno la stessa diffusione. Si segnala, però, che la diffusione del primo potrebbe essere sottostimata lavorando in background sui terminali per il mining di Monero (cryptovaluta alternativa a Bitcoin).
  • Di diversa natura, pur sfruttando la stessa vulnerabilità (insieme ad altre 6), sarebbe EternalRocks (a.k.a. MicroBotMassiveNet), worm scoperto dal CERT croato. Anche questo worm utilizza exploit di provenienza NSA, gettando benzina sull’infuocato dibattitto circa il VEP, il complesso di parametri delle agenzie americane che porta alla non rivelazione di una vulnerabilità scoperta, e in generale sull’attività cyber delle agenzie USA. Per ora il CERT italiano stima che la capacità di individuazione del malware da parte degli antivirus è molto alta. A differenza di Wcry, EternalRocks, però, non avrebbe killswitch.

Un ulteriore update è quello su Wanadecrypt (poi aggiornato da Wanakiwi), due tools sviluppati per permettere agli utenti di decriptare i file colpiti da Wannacry. Entrambi sono stati rilasciati su GitHub (il secondo si trova qui https://github.com/gentilkiwi/wanakiwi/releases)

Per quanto riguarda l’attribuzione di Wannacry, nell’ultima settimana è circolata la voce (Symantec) che fosse riconducibile alla Corea del Nord. Si citano, infatti, somiglianze tra il codice di Wannacry e quello di Contopee, backdoor utilizzata da Lazarus, gruppo autore dell’attacco a Sony e alla Banca centrale del Bangladesh (81 milioni di $ di bottino) e sospettato di essere vicino al regime nord-coreano (caso The Interview). Per ora non ci sono certezze sull’attribuzione e molti esperti chiamano alla prudenza perché “l’utilizzo di componenti o porzioni di codice presi da altri malware può significare semplicemente che gli autori del ransomware hanno preso una “scorciatoia” utilizzando il lavoro di altri o addirittura lo stanno usando come “false flag” per depistare chi indaga sull’attacco”. Non bisognerebbe, quindi, confondere quello che potrebbe essere semplice cyber-crime con cyber-war.

Fonte di preoccupazione poi sono le recenti dichiarazioni di The Shadow Brokers, il gruppo che ha diffuso gli exploit delle vulnerabilità di Windows poi usati per l’attacco Wannacry. Nel loro ultimo comunicato (https://steemit.com/shadowbrokers/@theshadowbrokers/oh-lordy-comey-wanna-cry-edition), annunciano di voler iniziare da Giugno una divulgazione mensile di exploit come atto ostile contro l’attività sommersa dell’Equation Group e della NSA. Le rivelazioni mensili potranno riguardare (secondo le loro parole):

  • web browser, router, handset exploits e tools
  • select items from newer Ops Disks, including newer exploits for Windows 10
  • compromised network data da SWIFT (il sistema di sicurezza per gli scambi finanziari) e banche centrali
  • compromised network data dai programmi nucleare di Russia, Cina, Iran, o Nord Corea. Secondo quelli che ritengono TSB vicino all’intelligence russa questa sarebbe un’azione di depistaggio.

Tutto ciò potrebbe essere evitato se gli stakeholder (i giganti tech e le agenzie di intelligence presumibilmente) decidano di acquistare le informazioni in mano al gruppo, che, in quel caso, non avrebbe più incentivi a continuare l’attività e si eclisserebbe.

Secondo gli esperti, però, il problema principale è che gli attori in campo stanno aumentando: sempre più gruppi dimostrano, infatti, di avere tools in grado di sfruttare EternalBlue (per ora sarebbero almeno 3 i gruppi attivi su EB). La proliferazione degli attori con capacità di penetrazione e il simultaneo comportamento imprudente dei cyber-user è un trend pericoloso. Si assisterà, quindi, a nuovi grandi attacchi come Wannacry, almeno finché tale trend non sarà invertito.

ANTIPUBLIC

Si chiama Antipublic, il gigantesco data-leak scoperto dalla divisione cyber di VAR Group e si tratta di 17 gb di materiale diviso in 10 file .txt. In essi sono riportati circa 457 milioni indirizzi e-mail univoci con annesse password (anche più di una), pubblicate in chiaro. Al momento della scoperta, l’archivio girava indisturbato nel deep-web ed è il risultato dell’aggregazione di milioni di credenziali che da tempo circolavano in maniera sparsa. Nel maggio 2017, gli analisti di VAR Group hanno iniziato una fitta operazione di cyber-intelligence per risalire all’archivio, poi, trovato presso un provider russo. È, però, dibattuto se Antipublic incarni un pericolo reale: se alcuni sostengono che il leak, sotto vari nomi e dimensioni, circolasse già da tempo e contenesse materiale datato, altri (in primis gli autori della scoperta) invece ne sottolineano l’importanza, soprattutto perché coinvolge anche il nostro paese. Questi i principali target istituzionali:

  • Vittime in Italia: Forze dell’Ordine e di Polizia, Vigili del Fuoco, Forze Armate, ministeri, città metropolitane, ospedali e università
  • Vittime a livello globale: Casa Bianca, Forze Armate USA, Europol, Eurojust, Parlamento Europeo, Consiglio Europeo

Questa la dichiarazione della Polizia Postale riguardo al dump: “Nonostante si tratti di dati risalenti e, da una sommaria verifica non privi di errori nella indicazione delle caselle e delle password, si consiglia comunque di effettuare, come da prassi comune, il periodico cambio della password di accesso per escludere eventuali intrusioni, utilizzando una combinazione efficace di numeri, lettere maiuscole e minuscole e caratteri speciali.

Si attendono ulteriori aggiornamenti sia dal gruppo di analisi al lavoro sul leak, sia dai commentatori nazionali che ne saggino l’effettivo pericolo.

FOREIGN AFFAIRS “HACK JOB”

Nel numero di questo bimestre (maggio/giugno), Foreign Affairs ha incluso un interessante articolo dal titolo “Hack Job – How America Invented Cyberwar” firmato da Emily Parker (ex funzionario del Dipartimento di Stato di Hillary Clinton). L’articolo è in realtà una review di due libri sulla Cyber-war, “Dark Territory” di Fred Kaplan e “The Hacked World Order” di Adam Segal. Entrambi affrontano (tra gli altri temi) lo spinoso problema del ruolo di aggressore degli USA nel cyber-space. La Parker sintetizza alcuni momenti principali negli ultimi quarto di secolo in cui gli Stati Uniti hanno espletato questo ruolo:

  • PRIMA GUERRA DEL GOLFO (1990-1991): Attraverso un’abile intercettazione satellitare, la NSA era a conoscenza di alcune importanti conversazioni tra Saddam Hussein e i suoi generali in cui venivano rivelate le posizioni dei soldati iracheni. Tutto questo mentre il presidente degli USA non utilizzava ancora il computer.
  • EX YUGOSLAVIA: l’Intelligence americana poté contemporaneamente manipolare l’informazione in Serbia (information-warfare) ed intercettare e neutralizzare le comunicazioni con cui i serbi-bosniaci organizzavano le proteste contro il contingente NATO in Bosnia.
  • SECONDA GUERRA DEL GOLFO (2003-2011): la creazione di una “mini-NSA” in Iraq garantì stabilità ed efficienza all’attività cyber nel paese e in tutto il Medioriente. In particolare l’intercettazione delle comunicazioni tra i ribelli anti-USA ha permesso all’esercito l’uccisione (stime di Kaplan) di circa 4000 individui.
  • PROGRAMMA NUCLEARE IRANIANO (2006-2010/2012): il più importante cyber-attacco della storia è nato e cresciuto tra gli USA e Israele ed è quello contro il programma nucleare iraniano (Operazione Giochi Olimpici & malware:Stuxnet) che secondo ne avrebbe rallentato i progressi di circa 5 anni. E’ considerato il “passaggio del Rubicone” della cyber-war.
  • INFORMATION-WARFARE: in generale gli USA promuoverebbero una vastissima attività di information-warfare sui social-media e sui siti. Gli scenari principali: Russia, Cina, Medioriente.

Per questo, la Parker sostiene che siano stati gli USA ad aver inventato la cyber-war ma che se la prossima guerra si combatterà via etere, l’America dovrà essere pronta e difendere i propri cittadini.

 

Lorenzo Termine

KFOR – Joint Regional Detachment Centre, intervista al Colonnello Randacio

Video di

Nell’ambito della missione Kosovo Force una delle attività importanti che vengono svolte ha come obiettivo è quella di mantenere i rapporti con la popolazione locale, una mansione importante quanto delicata.

Tastare il polso della situazione, interpretare le esigenze delle varie comunità con lo scopo di mantenere un buon livello di comunicazione con i leader delle comunità.

Questa attività viene svolta con grande attenzione perché permette di avere sempre un quadro aggiornato della situazione e di fare previsioni a breve e medio termine sullo scenario locale.

Ce ne parla il Colonnello Francesco Randacio comandante del Joint Regional Detachment Centre della Kosovo Force.

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Yemeni army readies plans to liberate cities under Houthis control

BreakingNews @en di

Chief of Staff of Yemeni armed forces, al-Maqdashi has been waiting for nod of minister in order to conduct some military operations in Houthis controlled areas. Al-Madqashi, in fact, has said they have drawn up a plan to set free the remaining cities from Houthis controll, including Houdaydah city port. This plan depends on the ability of military forces in combating and carrying out operations. There are two different situations: from one side Houthis and rebels are going through a period of weakness and disintegration, on the other side, the Yemeni National forces are taking control over some presidential buildings and check points. Their stronger positions are in Taiz and Nehm, where national forces have imposed a siege.

 

 

Serbia and UN ink Development Partnership Framework

BreakingNews @en di

The Development Partnership Framework between the Serbian government and the UN Country Team for the period from 2016 to 2020 has been signed in Belgrade. The document was inked by First Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic and UN Resident Coordinator in Serbia Karla Robin Hershey. The Development Partnership Framework is “fully aligned with the national development priorities of the Serbian government, as well as with the process of pre-accession negotiations between Serbia and the European Union and the UN Agenda for sustainable development by 2030”. The estimated value of the program of activities for a five-year period covered by the Development Partnership Framework amounts to USD 170 million. Dacic said he hoped that through the joint work of Serbian ministries, offices and agencies of the UN system, the Development Partnership Framework will be successfully put into practice, in the interest of all citizens of Serbia.

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