After last year’s brilliant success of Chinesediplomacy to reconcile centuries-old ethnic andreligious rivals – Iran and Saudi Arabia, the worldwas full of expectations that Beijing could alsotake on another “Gordian knot” Russia’s waragainst Ukraine.
But over time, hopes turned intodisappointment. The “6-Point Consensus”initiative, supposedly developed together withBrazil, seemed too vague and unclear. At times, itfelt more like an ‘initiative for the sake ofinitiative,’ an attempt by China to meet theexpectations that prevailed in many countries ofthe Global South. Criticism of the Chinese planwas also voiced on both sides of the front.
But it seems that the situation is beginning to change dramatically. China is trying to take advantage of the current pre-election uncertainty in the United States and is already seriously taking up the end of the war in Ukraine, not even hypothetically allowing the peacemaker’s laurels to fall into the hands of the current or future White House administration.
It would seem that Beijing could apply itspeacekeeping energy to another conflict, inparticular in Africa, where security problems arenot lacking. But Beijing’s choice was to go to warin Ukraine.
However, Beijing is well aware that it cannotsolve these problems on its own. Іn Ukraine thereis distrust of Beijing, which as is reasonablybelieved, is inclined to secretly play along withRussia in the war. But Russia, which has manyexcuses for its attempts to redraw the borders offormer Soviet republics, Beijing’s remindersabout the principles of sovereignty are met withirritation.
But now the Celestial Empire has a reliablerecipe – the Global South. It is enough for Beijingto simply assemble a certain “majority coalition” (how to assemble, with a whip or a carrot, an another issue), in order to dictate on its behalf theconditions of peace to both sides of the conflictand to the whole world at the same time.
It seems that the first act of the Chinese playcalled “settlement of the war in Ukraine” ishappening right now at the platform of the 79th session of the UN General Assembly. On thesidelines of the event, Beijing needs to gatherministers or high representatives from the BRICS allies and loyal states of the Global South to forma “core group” that will support the now concrete, not vague, Chinese plan to freeze the war.
But the “core group” is still not the entireGlobal South, and not even a “majoritycoalition.” Further, according to the script ofChinese directors, the play implies the rapidexpansion of this group at the expense of otherstates of Africa, Latin America and Asia orregional international organizations, such as theAfrican Union. The bet will be on a kind of”pyramid effect,” when individual BRICS member states will be involved in supporting theChinese initiative of the states that are guided bythem.
But the greatest work will, of course, be doneby China itself. Beijing’s set of ‘arguments’ couldbe very broad and applied individually todifferent countries of the Global South. Buteveryone knows the key argument – money, thatis, to be more precise, economic dependence onChina. This faultless argument got its name backin 2017, when Brahma Chellaney published hisresonant article “China’s Debt-Trap Diplomacy”.
But back to our play. If China manages to muster enough support, at least internationally, to substantiate claims that 110 countries around the world have already backed the Brazilian-Chinese “6-Point Consensus” initiative, then the play will culminate. Scenery has been prepared for it – the October summit of BRICS leaders in Russian Kazan. It is there that Beijing expects to clearly propose “urbi et orbi” its specific plan for forcing Ukraine to negotiate with Russia, but of course on behalf of the “majority from the South”.
For the successful implementation of this plan, China would be very desirable, in addition to the Global South, to enlist the support of at least one authoritative European player. But it seems that in this plan, Beijing has already learned to conduct separate negotiations with individual European leaders who feel insecure in their positions within the country and take into account local business and the benefits of cooperation with the Celestial Empire.
And what of all this to the countries of Africaor other regions of the Global South. Like justanother good deal with China, isn’t it? Chinesemoney (investments, loans, technology) inexchange for only Beijing’s political support inresolving the war, which is, for example, tens ofthousands of kilometers from South Africa orLatin America.
But in fact, the threat lies in theimperceptible substitution of the UN and theentire global architecture, based on internationallaw, by the Chinese arbitration, where Beijingwill be guided solely by its pragmatic interests. Tomorrow, Chinese arbitration will neglect theprinciple of inviolability of borders in Africaenshrined in a special resolution of theOrganization of African Unity of 1964, and onlybecause it will meet the interests of Beijing’s nextlogistical megaproject. By pandering to Chinesepolitical initiatives in Europe today, the GlobalSouth tomorrow risks not only economic butpolitical Chinese hegemony at its home.
With kindly approval of Cyprus Daily News
