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Syria, while discussing for a post-Saddam clashes continue

While Iran, Syria, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United States discuss what are the prospects of the ongoing conflict and particularly what could be the new Syria in a possible post-Assad on the battlefield things change quickly.

Some of these developments are very important to monitor and some of the rebel factions of some importance not yet spoken to the various discussion boards for a power-sharing agreement.

Meanwhile on August 8 air forces of Assad bombed some positions in the countryside near the capital of the province of al-Hasaka, near Idlib and in the northern province of Latakia as reported by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Unconfirmed reports also indicate that the planes of the coalition led by the United States have carried out attacks near Raqqa killing two fighters of the so-called Islamic state.

Clashes between loyalist troops and rebels of the Islamist forces were reported around the province of Tabliseh and Homs. Government troops were able to repel an attempt of the SI to take control of the area around the oil field in the province of Homs Jazal.

Clashes have also occurred in the province of Rif Dimashq where government troops backed by Hezbollah fought Islamic rebels in the area of ​​Daraya and Zabdani.

Iran nuclear deal: pros and cons

After 16 days of negotiations, yesterday the US, EU, Russia, Great Britain and China, and Iran reached historical deal on the nuclear program in Vienna. A pact that works for reduction of he production of uranium in Teheran for the next 10 years. And, at the same time, it stops sanctions and trade sanctions.

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Although this is the formal end to decades of conflict with the West, especially during the Presidency of George W. Bush, the Israel’s contrary reaction and the contemporart and inconsistent alliance between Washington and Sunni’s countries, like Saudi Arabia, could be a warning for the International Community.

Inspired by the cartel the previous April 3, the agreement includes four key points. The cut of 98% of the stocks of enriched uranium. The use of centrifuges reduced to two-thirds. The possibility, not automatic,of Alea inspections on Iran’s nuclear facilities, after approval of the court arbitrary composed by the same countries that have signed the agreement. The gradual reduction of the arms embargo within the next five years. The UN resolution is expected next week, when it meets the Security Council.

The heart of the matter between the US and Iran is mainly the use of enriched uranium for civilian and not military. But also there’s the will to create a diplomat axiswith the biggest Shiite state in the Middle East, able to support the Assad regime in Syria or Hezbollah in Lebanon and decisive in the reconquest of the north-western territories in Iraq, now under the Caliphate.

Additionally, beyond this agreement, there’s the oil question. Iran is the fourth largest producer in the world and, with the end of the embargo, will increase its production. The effect could be the oil drum’s fall in price on the International Markets. Moreover, until the seventies, Europe was the first foreign market for Teheran.

US President Obama said: “No deal means a greater chance of more war in the Middle East. America negotiated from a position of strength and principle and stopped the spread of nuclear weapons. The comprehensive, long-term deal, demonstrated that American diplomacy can bring meaningful change”. And warned Congress he would veto any legislation that prevented its successful implementation.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani talks about “historic deal which opened a new chapter in Iran’s relations with the world”. Eu High Representative Mogherini thinks that the deal is ‘a sign of hope for the entire world’. While is a “sigh of relief for the entire world” in Russian President Putin’s opinion.
The chorus, however, was not unanimous at all the International Community. Predictably, Israel’s response was not long in coming: “The agreement is a historical mistake. “The world is a much more dangerous place today than it was yesterday. The leading international powers have bet our collective future on a deal with the foremost sponsor of international terrorism. “In the coming decade, the deal will reward Iran, the terrorist regime in Tehran, with hundreds of billions of dollars. This cash bonanza will fuel Iran’s terrorism worldwide, its aggression in the region and its efforts to destroy Israel, which are ongoing”. Whereas an official of the government of Saudi Arabia denounced the possibility that Iran could “devastate the Middle East”.

The contradictions within the deal, as the contemporary US alliance with Saudi coalition in Yemen against Houtii (Shiite’s faction supported by Tehran), could bring a long-term strategy. The chance given by the United States and its allies to Iran is directed to the Iranian civil society. The opening to the outside could bring the Shiites and the Sunnis to talks again. This could be an effective weapon against the expansionism of the Islamic State.

Not only abroad. Much of the criticism have come from the United States’s press. Bret Stephen (Wall Street Journal) said that “the agreement will be disastrous” and “unlikely Iran’s foreign policy will change”. Indeed, the deal could backfire on Washington.

 

Giacomo Pratali

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Libya: the agreement is incomplete

First step towards the establishment of an executive of national unity. The Tobruk government and representatives of other factions have officialized their agreement after months of deals. But United Nations and Leon are waiting Tripoli choice.

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Yes the agreement for the government of national unity of Libya Sunday 12th July. To Skhirat (Morocco) the Tobruk government and delegates of Zintan, Misrata and other factions have signed the pact along the lines of the last 3rd July. One step forward, after long work of UN mediator Bernardino Leon. But an incomplete agreement because of it’s without Tripoli government’s approval.

However, reactions were positive. “An important first step towards peace”, Leon and Tobruk representatives said. Also Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Gentiloni has the same viewpoint: “The signing gives us grounds for hope and encourages us to continue with our negotiating efforts. It is now up to Tripoli to make a significant and responsible gesture by signing up to the agreement proposed by the UN Special Representative, Bernardino Leon, with the full support of Italy also”.

Meanwhile, on the domestic front, Derna, a port city of Cyrenaica, has been “lost from the Islamic State”, as admitted in a video by an Islamist militant. While the Us is thinking to positionate its drones to monitor Islamic State in Libya, in according with North African countries. In the last days, Us President Obama and Gb Prime Minister Cameron reiterated that it’s possibile to defeat Daesh not with ground forces, although with pilotless aircrafts.
Giacomo Pratali

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Yemen: hope for truce

Middle East - Africa di

The President grants the UN requests. The peace movement has connected to certain guarantees. More than a million are the refugees after three months of conflict.

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The Yemeni government announced its agreement to the truce requested by the United Nations. A temporary peace which looks converge the Houthi movement. A choice which, as admitted by a Yemeni spokesperson, will be constrained by clear guarantees.

The first is the release of prisoners, including the Minister of Defense, from Houtii. The second, however, is that the same Shiites leave the four occupied provinces.

This is a small step forward in a geopolitical context so hot. The United Nations, as well as many non-governmental organizations, have recently reported crimes against the Yemeni population.

The numbers have not mince words. More than 1500 civilians killed, over a million refugees. And the same refugee camps targeted by the Sunni coalition led by Saudi Arabia and supported by the United States. So, the peace is essential to bring aid to the displaced and to create humanitarian corridors.
Giacomo Pratali

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Yemen: Saudi Arabia employed Us cluster bombs

Middle East - Africa di

Human Rights Watch exposed Riyadh and Washington to use unexploded mines against Houtii rebels.

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Saudi Arabia used Us-supplied cluster bombs against Houtii rebels. It’s disclosed by Human Right Watch, which explained to have evidence about it. Riyadh denied every charges, but some YouTube videos posted by local residents validated Hrw denunciation. Every cluster bomb leave behind about 300 unexploded mines. These should made from Us, which Hrw accused to procure them to Saudi Arabia aviation.

Meanwhile, Yemen will put in for accession to Gulf Cooperation Council (Gcc). Born in 1981, this International organization was founded by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Uae, Kuwait, Bahrein and Oman as reaction to Iranian Revolution of 1979.

Yemen should be entered in Gcc in 2015 like other countries decided in 2005. After a monitoring decade, where members tried to help Yemen failure economy, this countries decide to bomb Houtii establishments to substain President Hadi. Now, Saudi Arabia and other nations have to set if Yemen’s admission will be a benefit or will damage Gulf countries.

Giacomo Pratali

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