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Russia: all participants of the Lausanne talk must decide their own future

Asia @en/BreakingNews @en di

Russia said all participants in talks in Lausanne had agreed Syrians should decide their own future through inclusive dialogue and that the country should remain whole and secular, after the meeting ended without a breakthrough.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry said on Sunday that in order for a U.S.-Russian ceasefire agreement to succeed and to facilitate humanitarian aid deliveries, Syria’s moderate opposition must separate from Jabhat Fatah al Sham, previously known as the Nusra Front, and other “terrorist groups” affiliated with it. “At the same time, it should be understood that operations against terrorists of Islamic State and the Nusra Front will be continued,” the Ministry said. Saturday’s talks, convened by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry in the Swiss city, failed to agree on a common strategy with Russia to end the conflict in Syria, now in its sixth year.

Russian Defense Minister: aircraft stop airstrikes in Aleppo area

Asia @en/BreakingNews @en di

Sergey Shoigu, Russian Defense Minister, said that Russian and Syrian aircraft stopped airstrikes in Aleppo area from 10 a.m. on Tuesday to introduce a humanitarian pause on 20th of October. According to Shoigu, this will allow guaranteeing security of exit via six corridors for civilians and preparing for evacuation of those ill and wounded from the eastern part of Aleppo. Two other corridors will open for militants to leave the city. He alsoadded that military experts from a number of countries will start work in Geneva on separating opposition from terrorists in Syria’s Aleppo, tomorrow.

Normandy Four: Putin plans to take part and talk for the first time in a year

BreakingNews @en/Defence di

Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin’s Spokesman, announced that Russian President, Vladimir Putin, will visit Berlin on 19th of October to take part in the meeting of the Normandy Four group. The official stressed that Putin’s decision to take part in the meeting was unrelated to the escalation of the situation in Ukraine.

The Kremlin believes that Kiev’s calls for forcing Moscow into compliance with the Minsk Accords indicate how complex the situation is. The press secretary stressed that Vladimir Putin is ready to do everything to push forward the Minsk process on the Ukrainian conflict settlement within the Normandy Four format.

Russian Parliament Ratifies Indefinite Deployment of Air Force in Syria

Asia @en di

Russia’s lower house of parliament ratified on Friday an agreement with Syria that authorizes the deployment of a Russian air group at the Hmeimim airbase for an indefinite period of time. A Russian airforce group has been deployed to the Syrian Arab Republic following a request from Damascus.

The airforce group is located on the Hmeymim airfield in Latakia. Moscow will use the base ‘free-of-charge’ and will carry out supplies of necessary equipment and ammunition to the base without customs or any other duties, the memorandum says.

Hot Spot – The Crisis Areas

BreakingNews @en di

There are several hot spot in the world. The International press shown below talk about geopolitical crisis, wars and clashes in Europe, Africa, Middle East, Asia and South America.

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Syria
October 3
The Syrian military has called on antigovernment forces to lay down their weapons and evacuate the
besieged city of Aleppo, which is under a severe aerial attack by Syrian and Russian aircraft. The call on October
2 came as Syrian and Russian planes unleashed dozens of air strikes on the rebels and some 250,000 civilians still
living in the different parts of Aleppo controlled by antigovernment forces. In the meantime Stephen O’Brien, the
UN humanitarian aid chief for Syria, called again for immediate international action to stop the attack on the
city, which is Syria’s largest.

Kirbin US State Department spokesman announced the stop to the ceasefire dialogue with Russia and set
up a joint military cell to target terrorists. The comunications between the two countries continue to avoid
“incidents” in reciprocal counterterrorism actions in Syria.

October 4
A suicide bomber struck a wedding in northeast Syria as the bride and groom were exchanging vows, killing
32 people and wounding dozens. The bomber blew himself up late Monday in the village of Tall Tawil in the
Hassakeh province where a Kurdish party official was getting married. About 100 people were wounded,
according to the medical source in the city who gave the updated toll.

October 5
A Turkish soldier has been killed in clashes with Islamic State group militants in northern Syria, Turkish
media reported on Wednesday.Three other soldiers were slightly injured in the confrontation which left 18 IS
dead militants in Ziyara, east of al-Rai town, Anadolu news agency said.

The US State Department said in a statement on Tuesday that the United States is looking to reconsider
multilateral and unilateral options for dealing with the ongoing conflict in Syria, including diplomatic, military,
intelligence, and economic options.

 

Afghanistan
September 28
The EU’s memo regarding Afghanistan has been leaked ahead of the Brussels summit making the aid to Afghanistan conditional on acceptance of at least 80,000 deported asylum seekers.

Scores of civilians were allegedly killed in a US airstrike that had targeted the Daesh terrorists in the
eastern Nangarhar province, local officials said. A US drone targeted the hideouts of the Daesh terrorists on
Wednesday’s pre-dawn in the Achin district.

 

Yemen
September 28
The Supreme Political Council ratified an implementation mechanism to carry out general Amnesty. The resolution made in a meeting here presided by president Saleh al-Sammad and published by official gazette on Wednesday.

Saudi aggression warplanes resumed bombing the capital Sanaa early on Wednesday. They struck alHafa area south of the capital four times.

September 29
The Saudi war jets on Thursday waged an air raid on Serwah district of Mareb province.

In a joint statement presented to the UN Human Rights Council, Save The Children and other international organizations said that more than three million people have displaced due to the ongoing conflict in Yemen forcing two thirds of them to leave their houses for 10 months or more.

October 1
Two citizens were killed on Saturday in Saudi raids on Attan area in the Capital Sana’a.

 

Arabia Saudita
September 28
A report developed by the Ministry of Islamic Affairs, Call and Guidance revealed a rise in the
number of terrorist attacks during the holy month of Ramadan, amounting to 53 attacks around the world, which
killed 1,576 people and wounded 2,556 Others. Such Attacks ingnore the fact that the holy month is about
forgiveness and worship.

September 29
Police arrested five people, (four foreigners and one Saudi), for links with terrorist groups and
recent terror operations in the Kingdom. The five, arrested this week, are two Syrians, one residing in the
Kingdom, one Indian and one Pakistani residing in the country, and a Saudi. The five are currently detained in
public security prisons and undergoing investigations, security sources said.

October 1
Since his appointment as crown prince in April 2015, Prince Mohammed bin Naif has been assisting
Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman in formulating and implementing the Kingdom’s policies on
internal and external fronts.

October 3
Houthi rebels in Yemen are posing a threat to shipping in the strategic Bab Al-Mandab strait, the
Arab coalition supporting the government said Sunday after an attack on an Emirati vessel. The strait is a major
shipping lane between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden leading into the Indian Ocean.

 

Libya
September 28
The head of the Presidential Council (PC) of the Government of National Accord (GNA), Fayez Al-Sarraj,
met, on Tuesday, the French President, François Hollande, and the French Foreign Minister, Jean-Marc Ayrault,
in Paris. Al-Sarraj, who met Hollande and Ayrault separately, told the French side that any intelligence or
military intervention in Libya must be agreed and coordinated with the PC in Tripoli.

UN Special Envoy Martin Kobler has called for end to illegal migrants being arbitrarily detained, abused
and treated as criminals. The plight of migrants travelling through Libya, particularly those from Sub-Saharan
Africa, is horrific and “utterly unacceptable”, the envoy says. Libya needs to establish an asylum system for
migrants as soon as possible, he believes. Additionally, those who are detained need better protection,
particularly female migrants whom, he says, are liable to sexual abuse.

October 2
The media office of Al-Bunyan Al-Marsous has revealed that its forces lost 8 fighters in the fight on the
outskirts of neighborhood 3 in Sirte against IS militants Sunday, in addition to more than 50 injuries.The media
office confirmed also that a Dutch photographer journalist, Jeroen Oerlemans , was killed in the clashes today.

October 3
Libyan forces of Al-Bunyan Al-Marsous resumed attacks on Sunday against IS militants, who are currently
trapped in their former stronghold of Sirte – specifically inside neighborhood 3 – losing at least six of their
fighters, according to a field hospital casualty list. The list named six killed fighters, three of them from the city of Misurata. In the morning, Libyan forces’ fighter aircraft carried out 6 airstrikes on IS militants in Sirte paving the way for infantry troops to advance into final spots in neighbourhood 3. Reports from Al-Bunyan Al-Marsous said about 10 Is terrorists were killed in Sunday attacks too.

Libyan pro-government forces killed at least 10 Daesh group fighters as they attempted to flee
their besieged stronghold of Sirte, the country’s unity government said on Sunday.

 

Israel
September 28
Israel’s ninth President and former Prime Minister Shimon Peres dies at 93 after suffering a major stroke.

Hamas welcomed the death of former Israeli President and Prime Minister Shimon Peres Wednesday,
calling him a “criminal”, while the Palestinian Authority made no official comment. In the Gaza Strip, a
spokesman for the Islamist Hamas terrorist organization commented on Peres’ death, saying that “The Palestinian
people are happy at the death of this criminal. “Shimon Peres was one of the last Israeli founders of occupation.
His death marks the end of an era in the history of the Israeli occupation”.

October 2
Indictments were filed Sunday against six Israeli Arabs from the Shuafat refugee camp in east Jerusalem,
who were accused of forming an ISIS cell and plotting to carry out attacks against Israelis.

October 5
The Obama administration has “strongly” condemned Israel for plans to construct housing on land in Judea
and Samaria, saying it calls Israel’s commitment to a negotiated agreement into question.

Palestinian terrorist in Gaza fired a rocket at Sderot on Wednesday morning, setting off air raid sirens and
narrowly missing homes. The rocket exploded in a road in the southern town, failing to cause physical injuries,
but sending one local resident into shock. Following the attack, an ISIS-linked Salafi jihadists in Gaza claimed
responsibility.

 

Palestine
September 29
Two Palestinian families in the occupied East Jerusalem neighborhood of Beit Hanina were forced to
demolish their own homes for being built without licenses on Wednesday, in order to avoid the expensive
demolition fines imposed by the Jerusalem municipality when its employees carry out the demolition themselves.
Between the two families, 15 Palestinians were displaced as a result of the demolitions. Owner of one of the
homes Imad Jaber told Ma’an he was forced to rent a bulldozer to demolish his house, after receiving an order
from the municipality.

October 2
Israeli Occupation Authorities on Sunday decided to close down the Ibrahimi mosque for six days during
the month of October, and open it only for Jewish Israeli settlers. Local sources in Hebron said that the mosque
will be closed down for Muslims during the days (3, 4, 6, 12, 18, 19 October) while Israeli settlers will be given
full privilige of entering it. In addition, IOF has been intensely preventing the Muslim call for prayers (Adan), and searching Palestinian worshippers upon entrance.

October 3
Some 45 right-wing Israelis escorted by Israeli forces toured the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound on Monday on
the occasion of the Jewish holiday of Rosh Hashanah. Witnesses said that the group entered the compound
through the Moroccan Gate and later exited through the Chain Gate after performing religious rituals under
armed guard, in violation of long-standing agreements regarding non-Muslim prayer at the compound.

October 5
Israeli tanks on Wednesday morning struck a ‘Hamas site’ in Beit Hanoun city in the Gaza strip, after a
rocket was reportedly fired on Sderot northeast of the strip.No casualties were reported on either side. Israel hit
the stripe despite no immediate claim of responsibility. The area was closed off and bomb disposal teams were
working at the site, police spokesman Micky Rosenfeld said.

Israeli authorities on Wednesday morning lifted a general closure that had been imposed on all passage for
Palestinians traveling between the occupied West Bank and Israel and between the blockaded Gaza Strip and
Israel, which was implemented on Sunday for the three-day Jewish holiday of Rosh Hashanah.

 

Lebanon
September 28
Hashem Shehab known as Khodr Kaddoura– prominent figure in “Fath Al-Islam– handed himself in to Army
Intelligence members.

State Security forces raided this morning a Syrian refugee camp in the Baalback town of Sarhin, and
apprehended 8 Syrians for clandestine entrance to Lebanon.

September 29
Military Investigative Judge Fadi Sawwan Thursday charged five individuals with belonging to terror
organizations.

Three men were wounded Wednesday evening in a landmine explosion along south Lebanon’s border with
Israel.

October 5
The United Nations Strategic Framework for Lebanon was signed Thursday by U.N. Deputy Special
Coordinator and Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator for Lebanon Philippe Lazzarini, and Secretary-General of
the Cabinet Fouad Fleifel.

 

 

Egypt
September 28
The militant group “Sinai Province” claimed it targeted an army infantry patrol on Monday evening using
several improvised explosive devices (IED) in the Abu Refai region south of Sheikh Zuweid city, according to a
statement. The group also asserted that the operation resulted in the death and injury of several army officers
and conscripts.

Three police officers and a taxi driver were killed in a militant attack on their car in North Sinai’s Al Arish
on Wednesday morning.

September 29
Egypt is closely following the progress of the 9/11 bill in the US and its impact on international relations in
the upcoming period, according to Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Ahmed Abou Zeid. According to Abou
Zeid, Egypt agrees that President Barack Obama’s veto against the legislation aligns with international law and
the standards of international diplomatic relations; in addition, it ensures equality and justice and not imposing
internal laws on other countries.

The Cairo Court of Urgent Matters decided on Thursday to suspend the administrative judiciary’s ruling on
the invalidity of the Tiran and Sanafir islands transfer agreement, according to lawyer Khaled Ali. The rights
lawyer said that the defense team will take all legal measures to reverse Thursday’s ruling.

October 2
Five conscripts from the Central Security Forces (CSF) were killed on Saturday evening in an armed attack that targeted their private vehicle while they were driving through Al-Arish city, located in North Sinai. The militants launched the attack from a private vehicle near Al-Arish First District Police Station, opening fire on the conscripts as they returned from holiday.

October 3
A child was killed and two other children were injured in early Monday morning artillery shelling by
the Saudi-paid aggression mercenaries on citizens’ houses in al-Masllob district of Jawf province.

 

Nigeria
October 2
The federal government has restated its willingness to negotiate with the Boko Haram to free the over 200
girls kidnapped from their school in Chibok, Borno State, in 2014.

October 5
Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari is selling two of his jets in a bid to cut costs as the West African
country battles to overcome a recession.

 

Mali
October 4
Attacks targeting a camp in northern Mali operated by the United Nations peacekeeping mission on
Monday killed one soldier from Chad and wounded eight others, the UN officials said. Olivier Salgado,
spokesperson for the UN peacekeeping mission in Mali, said on Monday that after a mortar attack on the camp in
Aguelhok, in the northern Kidal region around 14:00, two vehicles hit improvised explosive devices. According to
preliminary information, four different attacks targeted the UN personnel at the camp in Aguelhok. No group has
claimed responsibility for the attack.

 

 

 

Brazil
September 28
Brazilian Senator Gleisi Hoffmann and her husband, Paulo Bernardo Silva, who both served in the ousted
government of former President Dilma Rousseff, were indicted on Tuesday by the Supreme Court on corruption
and money laundering charges in the Petrobras graft investigation.

October 4
Brazil’s Workers Party suffered its worst-ever result at the polls as voters used Sunday’s local elections
to punish it for a deep recession and a series of corruption scandals. After 13 years in power the party saw its
vote collapse across Brazil in a dramatic confirmation that it is now fighting to retain a seat at the top table of
Brazilian politics following the impeachment of president Dilma Rousseff in August and the decision last month to
try party founder and former president Lula da Silva for corruption.

 

Colombia
September 29
Colombia President Juan Manuel Santos and FARC leader Rodrigo Londoño are the most likely to receive
the next Nobel Peace Prize after successfully negotiating an end to half a century of armed conflict, news agency
Reuters reported Thursday.

October 2
Colombia takes to the polls Sunday for a referendum in which the electorate is asked to either ratify or
reject a peace deal between the state and the country’s largest leftist rebel group. The stakes are exceptionally
high as a “Yes” vote for the deal will mean the end of the country’s largest, oldest and most-feared rebel group
and the beginning of a comprehensive, 10-year peace process. A “No” vote would stop this process in its tracks
without there being a Plan B.

October 3
President Juan Manuel Santos will hold talks today with the leaders of all political parties in search of a
broad consensus after Columbians voted ”No” in a referendum called to validate the peace agreements made with
the FARC-EP.

 

Cuba
September 28
Cuba has reaffirmed the willingness to support the international fight against racism, racial
discrimination, xenophobia and related intolerance, during the UN Human Rights Council, whose sessions
continues today.

The world”s second largest duty-free zone, located in the Caribbean city of Colon, in northern Panama,
is saling in the troubled waters of demand and supply, and a shipwreck seems to be the only destination.

September 29
Cuba’s mission to UNESCO called today for a world free of nuclear weapons, after remembering the serious
danger they represent for world peace and the survival of humanity. In a statement spread on occasion of the
International Day for the Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons, held on Monday, September 26, the permanent
delegation stressed the importance of prioritizing the issue in the current world situation, characterized by
serious threats to international peace and security.

 

 

Russia
September 28
Libya’s Gen. Khalifa Haftar, who leads forces loyal to Tobruk-based Council of Deputies, has requested
Russia to send small arms and equipment

September 29
On Wednesday, John Kerry told Sergei Lavrov that Washington is prepared to suspend bilateral
engagement with Moscow in Syria, unless Russia takes immediate steps to end Syrian operation in the city of
Aleppo and reinstates the ceasefire. In the meantime, Russian General Staff said that Russian experts will travel
to Geneva to resume a consultation with the United States on looking for a new agreement on Syria’s ceasefire.

Moscow refused the American proposal to establish a truce of seven days, according to Russian authorities
this time it would have been used by terrorists to regroup their forces. Russians suggested 48-hours pauses but
Americans refused this proposal. Anyway, Moscow asserted that the only possible solution is diplomatic way and
it accused US to be unable to respect its obligation and promise, made after the agreement of 9th September.

October 2
Primary elections were held in the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics. After the election, lists of candidates for local government positions will be formed in accordance with the Minsk Agreements.

October 3
On 3rd of October, Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered suspension of the plutonium disposal
agreement with the United States over Washington unfriendly actions towards Russia. According to Russian
authorities the new international instability needs to urgent measures to protect the security of Russia. Sergey
Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister, added that Moscow will not allow Washington to talk with Russia in a force
language, sanctions and ultimatums while hoping for cooperation in certain areas.

 

Turkey
September 28
The Housing Development Administration of Turkey (TOKİ) has undertaken the construction of the
remaining 700 kilometers of the wall being built on Turkey’s border with war-torn Syria, after the construction of
the initial 200-kilometer-long concrete wall on the border was completed jointly by the Defense Ministry and
neighboring provinces governor’s offices.

October 2
One soldier was killed and five were injured in a mortar attack by the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’
Party (PKK) in the Çukurca district of the southeastern province of Hakkari on Oct. 1.

 

 

 

 

 

Ukraine
September 28
The OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) to Ukraine has reported a surge in explosions in Donetsk region
alone to 187 on September 27 from 24 blasts on September 26. Most of the ceasefire violations were recorded in
the Avdiyivka-Yasynuvata-Donetsk airport triangle area, including 180 explosions.

October 3
Combined Russian-separatist forces attacked Ukrainian army positions in eastern Ukraine 48 times in the
past 24 hours, including 20 times in the Mariupol sector, 12 times in the Donetsk sector and 16 times in the
Luhansk sector, according to the press center of the Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) headquarters.

 

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France bombs IS. G-20: US-Russia deal?

Europe/Middle East - Africa di

France drops bombs on Raqqa after Paris attacks. During the G20, Obama and Putin talk about a common strategy in Syria.

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France have reacted to act of war of the Islamic State, as defined by French President Francoise Hollande. Not only within national borders. French aviation have intensified, durinf the night of November 15, the bombings on strategic locations in Syria. Ministry of Defence said that 12 aircrafts have been employed to attack Raqqa, the capital of Islamic State, and targeted a command center and a training camp.

So, Paris attacks led to an immediate reaction from the Elysee. And, above all, the government is not scared by the fact that just recent raids in Syria have caused bloody reaction on November 13. This military action is in cooperation with the US, already operating in Syria and Iraq, which have provided logistical and intelligence supports.

During the G20 in Turkey yesterday, Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin agreed on the need for “a Syrian-led and Syrian-owned political transition”, as reported by the White House. Even if the Cremlin “don’t think that West had a unique point of view” and “differences on tactics still remain,” this meeting has been positive to partially reconnect two United States and Russia on Daesh front.7

Despite Ukrainian crisis and NATO expansion, Paris attacks could bring the Us and Russia to military cooperate in Syria, in order to find a”peaceful conflict resolution,” G20 statement reported. Isis strategy could bring to adverse effect, uniting West and Russia against Caliphate.

The strategy of terror of the Islamic State could have an adverse effect and reassemble the West and Russia in the name of fighting Caliphate.
Giacomo Pratali

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Ukraine crisis: a crucial autumn

Europe di

The next UN and European summits will be crucial for Ukrainian context and for relationship between Washington and Moscow.

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It’s standby in Ukrainian civil war. In September, the ceasefire between army and pro-Russian fighters has stood. While Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is visiting Kiev, where he has met President Petro Poroshenko, he has confirmed that “Russia is continuing to arm the separatists despite the truce”. However the mood looks relaxed because all are waiting the next summit of 2 October, when leaders of Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia will meet after Minsk2 of the last February.

And, with the General Assembly of United Nations on 24-30 September, one realizes the this autumn could be decisive for Ukrainian context, as well as other geopolitical contexts. Financial and systemic crisis have pushed the Ukrainian government to accelerate, in late August, the constitutional reforms which aim to give more autonomy to Donbass, in line with Minsk2, and to sign an agreement to the debt restructuring with creditors.

On the other hand, there is Russia, which has hardly been hit by oil prices collapse and, as a consequence, by more than 20% fall of Ruble value over the past four months. In this context, economic sanctions by United States and European Union are not the main cause of Russian financial crisis, but nevertheless important factors, especially in view of energy development.

Indeed, while the Kremlin is getting Europe number concerning gas supply, economical penalties are preventing oil and gas development projects in the Arctic. Proposal which the Russian economy needs to maintain its high level of current production.

Therefore, the Ukrainian crisis could be influenced by meetings of 24-30 September and 2 October. In the first one, it will be important the summit between the US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov, where they’ll talk about Russian military operation in Syria against Islamic State. In the second one, the summit with Vladimir Putin Angela Merkel and Francoise Hollande will be helpful to soften Germany and France. In both cases, the purpose is only one: the reduction of economic sanctions against Russia from the years 2016/17.

However, missteps on both sides are following. On the Ukrainian front, there is involvement increased of fighters in the far-right paramilitary brigades that fought alongside army. Besides National Security Council has drawn up a new blacklist where 34 foreign journalists, including 3 of the BBC, have been banned, over the former Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, who has taken part in visit to Crimea together with Putin.

On the Russian front, the Kremlin has been denied by an article, accidentally published (later removed) by Delovaia Zhizn and immediately recall by Forbes, in which was revealed the number of Russian soldiers died in Ukraine: 2000. But Moscow has always repudiated direct involvement.

So, the next UN and European summits, and the accentuation of the geopolitical crises in Syria and Libya, may induce the parties to reach a solution that will bring not only the end of the civil war in Ukraine, but the “warming” of the cold relations between the US and Russia.
Giacomo Pratali

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Belarus: Lukashenko’s two faces

Europe di

Released six political opponents a few months before elections. Lukashenko tries a timid rapprochement towards Brussels, but, fearing a repetition of Maidan, he has reinforced military alliance with Moscow.

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President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko has declared release of six political opponents, including Mykalai Statkevich, presidential candidate in 2010: “I did not think that Lukashenko would have had the courage to break free me before the election (on November 20, ed) – Statklevick said-. Maybe government has not more money to the prison. Now the situation is optimum for them. The opposition is in a stalemate. It can not disrupt the consultation and is not able to support even its own candidate. That’s why they let me go. ”

In addition to the charges about the difficult economic situation, these six opponents, as well as many activists, have always accused Lukashenkoto be too pro-Russia and to be too far from European Union.

The news was welcomed as “a big step forward,” EU High Representative Federica Mogherini affirmed. While Italian Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs Benedetto Della Vedova said that this according could be an “improvement in relations between Belarus and the European Union is moving in the hoped for direction of human rights protections and civil liberties. “The liberation of these six prisoners”, Della Vedova observed, “meets the expectations that, both bilaterally and within the broader dialogue between the EU and Minsk, have been repeatedly demonstrated by the Belarus authorities”.

Considered Europe’s last dictator, Lukashenko, in office since 1994, has always moved their pieces based on political convenience of the moment. As in 1997, the year of the agreement, “Union State” with Russia. As today, with release of the six detainees like reconciliation towards Brussels, in order to reduce sanctions against Belarusian oligarchs decreed in 2004.

But also the Ukrainian issue exists. Beyond agreement between Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France set out in the capital Minsk, Lukashenko is fearing for another Maidan 2 in his country, especially because all the European chancelleries have always marginalized him. Aware of this risk, he has reach, last August 19, a military agreement with Putin about the common space of short-range air defense.
Giacomo Pratali

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Ukraine: failure of Minsk 2 is around the corner

Europe di

Clashes between army and separatists returned to the same level in February. On the domestic front, agreement is distant. On the international side, Nato and Russia continue to flex their muscles.

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With the help of summer, civil war in Eastern Ukraine has again become bloody. The approach of winter, with the gas issue, contribute to intensify violence. On August 3, three soldiers have died following clashes with separatists. At the same time, it’s been the failure of negotiations to establish a buffer zone between the contact groups of Minsk Protocol 2.

There are many signs of this escalation. Domestic, between the Ukrainians, calling for the deposition of the weapons to pro-Russian in exchange for concessions of autonomy in the Constitution, and separatists, determined not to give in and will participate in the legislative process.

International. As a resurgence of the Cold War, Ukrainian civil war is an International showdown. With NATO, which wants to intensify even more the contribution of Force Integrations Units in Eastern Europe. With the United State and European Union, which intends to further increase sanctions against Moscow. With Russia, determined to exit from isolation from the Western partners.

This economical sanctions could push the Kremlin to not back down. The growth of separatists’ military training in Donbass is a clear indicator. Finally, the privileged relations with Syria and Iran, the new economic and commercial channels established with China and India, may tempt Washington to soften. The degeneration of the Ukrainian war and the chaos of the country are around the corner.
Giacomo Pratali

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Iran, stop sanctions: geopolitical and economic effects

The Un resolution officially stops Teheran trade sanctions. “It’s the only chance to stop the nuclear program” the Us government said. While it’s an important commercial solution for Europe and Italy.

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Thanks to the UN resolution on 20th July, the Security Council has approved the end of sanctions against Iran. Go ahead, then, to the pact between the 5 + 1 and Teheran found in Vienna last 14th July. The document will come into effect no earlier than 90 days.

A historical agreement for the West in geopolitical and economic point of views. Geopolitical for the United States, as noted on July 23 by the US Secretary of State Kerry: “We could certainly expect Iran fall – he told the Congress -. But it was the best possible option. I hope that the Congress (addressing to the Republican Party, ed) approve because this is the only chance to stop the nuclear program and avoid the risk of a military clash,”he concluded.

But in addition to policy issues in the Arab world, solutions are also commercial. Executive Vice President and General Manager of Saras (Italian oil refining company) Dario Scaffardi, in a summit on business and finance, as well as underlining the benefits that the decline in oil prices has already resulted in the international market, has reported that, following the end of the embargo, his group has been contacted by Iran, got back to be the protagonist of the international market of crude oil. The return to oil production from Teheran “will carry a million barrels of crude oil per day on the market once the sanctions removed. With the possibility of adding 0.5-1 million barrels quickly enough, “said the manager of Moratti family factory.

On the Italian front, also, next 4th and 5th August, the Minister of Foreign Affairs Gentiloni Economic the Minister of Economical Development Federica Guidi will travel to Iran together with representatives of Italian largest industrial groups. The goal is getting back to a significant foreign trade with Teheran. In fact, before the revolution of 1979, Europe was the first import and export partner of the former Persia. In the early 1990s, this primacy went to Russia, which, in addition to geopolitical relations of friendship, made meaningful investment on oil and gas.
Giacomo Pratali

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