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German divisions over immigration

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“A difficult day” for the party said German Chancellor Angela Merkel after the state election held last Sunday. The CDU (Christlich Demokratische Union) lost the majority in two out of three federal states, Baden – Wuttemberg and Rhineland- Palatinate. A remarkable result: although the CDU remains the main political force, we clearly see the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD)party, led by Frauke Petry, gaining increasing support. Key issue: immigration policies.

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In response to the Syrian and Middle Eastern refugee crisis, Chancellor Merkel has been promoting an open-door policy, according to which Germany grants asylum to refugees and migrants coming from war zones. In 2015, more than a million people crossed the German border. A “humanitarian” policy, which distances itself from the position taken by other European countries. For instance, Slovenia has opted for closing the borders, while Austria has imposed stricter controls at the borders and a ceiling of refugees to be accepted.

Very different the approach presented by the AfD, which stands for securing the borders. “Asylchaos beenden” – the party’s motto- clearly shows the concern for national internal stability. The right-wing party supports a conservative political line, aimed to protect the traditional Christian values. The constant influx of Muslim immigrants is perceived as a threat to these values​​: a xenophobic attitude, then, that seems to get more support among the German population.

The AfD, in fact, is gaining votes also outside the traditional far-right supporters. Many conservatives, usually closer to the positions of the CDU but disillusioned by the centrist policies promoted by Merkel, have given their preference to the far-right. The alternative offered by Petry’s populist party, indeed, seems to get closer to their needs and ideas.

We are seeing a strongly polarized electorate. On the one hand, those who has supported and continues to support the open policies promoted by Merkel, whose real fear is not the influx of refugees , but the closure of borders . Doing so would endanger the European Union’s fundamental principles, such as the free movement of persons, free trade and the single currency. On the other hand, the far-right xenophobic party bets on a more radical approach, which aims to defend the national integrity and security at the expense of community values, indeed, the freedom of movement.

Nothing new nor surprising. We have already seen the same process in France with the rise of Le Pen’s xenophobic far-right party and now in the US with Trump’s successes. It seems that in Western countries the intolerance towards permissive policies on refugees and foreigners is sharply growing. And the sense of insecurity due to ongoing threats and attacks carried out in various European capitals certainly does not facilitate an opener position.

In the background of this internal conflict there are also the negotiation leading by the Bundeskanzlerin within the EU with Turkey, in order to sign an agreement on migrants. Erdogan has recently requested an extra 3bn Euros (on top of the 3bn Euros already made available), while proposing an exchange mechanism according to which for every Syrian refugee readmitted in Turkey, the EU would resettle one Syrian refugee from Turkey to other EU Member States. “Understandable” demands, according to Germany; different reaction from other European leaders, such as the Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel that defines the agreement as a sort of blackmail.

However, neither the outcome of the election, nor the conflicting opinions within the EU have changed Merkel’s plan: no U-turn in the open-door policy, while the agreement with Turkey still remains the only possible way to solve the crisis.

Likely, there will be consequences both at national and European level. In Germany, the CDU is not only facilitating the growth of far-right parties, but it is endangering the internal stability of its own party. Horst Seehofer, leader of the CSU, sister party of the CDU in Bavaria, has heavily criticized Merkel’s decisions, saying that after similar electoral results the only acceptable response is a policy change. At European level, the distance between an EU-leading Germany and other Member States once again questions the credibility and stability of the institution as well as the effectiveness of any agreement achieved with Turkey. As there are many European countries to have interests at stake, an EU response must take into account these different needs. And if Merkel wants to maintain her leadership, she cannot close her eyes on other countries’ positions.

 

Paola Fratantoni

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Russian and French views about Libya

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French and Russian governments expressed two different positions about Libyan crisis on March 14.

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While unity government was not still approved, Russian minister of Foreign Affairs Sergej Lavrov said that a military operation will be operative only if UN Security Council approval. Conversely, French minister of Foreign Affairs Jean-Marc Ayrault asked “sanctions against those who put obstacles in the way, against those who ultimately stop the Libyan authorities from starting their work.”

Two differents viewpoints which show how Libyan context is becoming crucial as Syrian and Iraqi ones.
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Boko Haram: also an European issue

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Military and economical campaign against Boko Haram is continuing. During March, Nigerian army killed several militants, as happened two days ago when 5 jihadists were killed and many weapons confiscated. Or through the suspenction of four cattle markets in Borno State, where Boko Haram traded stolen animals to support itself.

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If social and military radicalization of Boko Haram is well-known, also economical point of view is important. Especially about the cattle trade, which almost entirely passes by Borno. Indeed, the closure of four markets even affected the market in Lagos, where prices rised.

Neverthless, after Libya, also Nigeria is becoming a new Caliphate stronghold. This was evident during January 2016, when 905 Nigerian migrants reached Italian coasts through Mediterranean route (109 on January 2015): “We have to control better this situation – Federico Soda, IOM, said -. About, about 90 per cent of Nigerian women were victims of human trafficking. “

17,000 people killed, at least 1,000 schools destroyed, over 2 million displaced people. These are the numbers of Boko Haram insurgency in the last six year. An insurgency which is producing a migration route towards Libya and another geopolitical matter for Italy and EU countries.
Giacomo Pratali

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NATO-FRONTEX, joint in the Aegean Sea

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We note that Frontex and NATO reached yesterday a common understanding  on the modalities of their cooperation in the Aegean Sea.

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In accordance with a EU press release, these operational modalities will maximise the effectiveness, ensure consistency and complementarity of the FRONTEX operation “Poseidon Rapid Intervention” in the area and the efforts of NATO’s support activities.

“The decision of NATO to assist in the conduct of reconnaissance, monitoring and surveillance of illegal crossings in the Aegean Sea is an important contribution to international efforts to tackle smuggling and irregular migration in the Aegean Sea in the context of the refugee crisis”.

Today’s common understanding is another example of the relevance of EU-NATO practical cooperation, already present in many crisis theatres. The EU, in facts, officially declared its trusts that its joint efforts with NATO will contribute to address the many challenges raised by the current migration crisis, and reduce the dangers of irregular crossings in the Aegean Sea.

On the other hand, NATO ships are already collecting information and conducting monitoring in the Aegean sea. Their activity will now be expanded to take place also in territorial waters.

Employed naval commanders have defined the area of activity in close consultation and coordination with both Greece and Turkey Authorities, also for access in their respective national waters.

The purpose of NATO’s deployment is not to stop or push back migrant boats, but to help Greece and Turkey, as well as the European Union, in their efforts to tackle human trafficking and the criminal networks that are fueling this crisis.

NATO’s Maritime Command has also agreed with FRONTEX on arrangements at the operational and tactical level. NATO and FRONTEX will be able to exchange liaison officers and share information in real time, to enable FRONTEX, as well as Greece and Turkey, to take action in real time.

This is an excellent example of how NATO and the EU can work together to address common challenges. Europeanaffairs.media also praises the quickness and the rapidity of this joint decision and believes that in facing the crisis, “time is the essence, and cooperation is key”.

 

Domenico Martinelli

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Libia: le divisioni interne e lo scenario politico italiano

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Le divisioni interne libiche e la realpolitik di casa nostra. La vicenda legata alla liberazione dei due ostaggi italiani Filippo Calcagno e Gino Pollicardo, rapiti in Libia lo scorso 20 luglio, si è intrecciata infatti attorno alle divisioni tribali del Paese nordafricano e alla reazione del premier Matteo Renzi nei confronti della stampa nazionale e degli alleati internazionali, in particolar modo degli Stati Uniti.

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La notizia della liberazione e le congetture

La notizia della scomparsa di Salvatore Failla e Fausto Piano (le due salme saranno sottoposte ad autopsia a Tripoli e non in Italia) di giovedì 3 marzo è stata seguita, il giorno successivo, da quella della liberazione degli altri due italiani e colleghi Filippo Calcagno e Gino Pollicardo. Una concomitanza particolare dopo gli scontri tra le milizie di Sabrata e i jihadisti dell’Isis e la notizia della liberazione nella stessa località quasi preannunciata dal presidente del Copasir Marco Minniti nella giornata di giovedì, quando ha assicurato che gli altri due italiani erano “in vita”.

Una concomitanza che ha lasciato scettici alcuni osservatori italiani e la vedova di Failla: “Lo Stato italiano ha fallito: la liberazione dei due ostaggi è stata pagata con il sangue di mio marito”, ha affermato.

Le difficili trattative per il rientro dei due dipendenti della Bonatti

Aldilà delle congetture, i fatti della giornata di sabato 5 marzo sono stati convulsi. Dapprima, con il presidente del Consiglio Renzi che aveva preannunciato il rientro dei due italiani entro la serata. Poi, con il complicarsi del ritorno a casa dei due italiani.

Infatti, il governo italiano aveva inviato a Sabrata, luogo dove i due dipendenti della Bonatti sono stati liberati, due funzionari. Ma le autorità della città, in aperto contrasto con Tripoli, hanno richiesto, e ottenuto, che Filippo Calcagno e Gino Pollicardo venissero prelevati anche dalla delegazioni ufficiale del governo della capitale libica: “Non siamo rispettati come doveroso – ha dichiarato al Corriere della Sera Taher Algribli, uno dei capi militari che partecipato alle operazioni militari contro il Daesh -. Vogliamo delegazioni ufficiali del Ministro degli Esteri libico. Dopotutto, i ragazzi hanno combattuto e sono morti per battere l’Isis”.

Una volta risolta la questione, l’unità di crisi della Farnesina ha dovuto gestire il difficile spostamento di Calcagno e Pollicardo, attesi domenica in Italia dopo essere transitati dalla difficile rotta da Sabrata a Mellitah, per poi essere trasportati in elicottero a Tripoli, da dove un aereo li riporterà a Roma.

Divisioni interne alla Libia

Una questione, quello dello scontro tra Tripoli e Sabrata, a testimonianza delle divisioni interne al tessuto sociale, politico e militare della Libia. Oltre alla crescente radicalizzazione dello Stato Islamico in più zone del Paese, quello che preoccupa gli osservatori internazionali è il contrasto non solo tra i governi di Tripoli e Tobruk, ma anche tra le tante fazioni e tribù locali. Un ostacolo, innanzitutto, alla formazione del governo di unità nazionale caldeggiato dalle Nazioni Unite, giudicato, con ogni probabilità, un corpo estraneo da gran parte della popolazione libica.

Raffreddamento dell’asse Roma-Washington

Oltre ad avere preannunciato il rientro di Calcagno e Pollicardo, Renzi, nella mattinata di sabato 5 marzo, si è rivolto in modo stizzito ai media e, seppur non citandoli, agli Stati Uniti, dopo le pressioni ricevute in merito ad un intervento militare italiano a breve e con un contingente significativo: “I media si affannano ad immaginare scenari di guerra in Libia che non corrispondono alla realtà. Questo non è il tempo delle forzature, ma del buon senso e dell’equilibrio”. E ancora: “Il coinvolgimento militare avverrà assieme a tutti gli alleati, americani compresi”.

Una chiara risposta all’ambasciatore statunitense John R. Philips, che aveva chiesto all’Italia un coinvolgimento attivo nella sempre più papabile azione militare in Libia, ma aveva anche escluso un impiego diretto di forze americane sul campo. E una replica alle pressioni di Francia e Regno Unito, già attive in Libia da qualche settimana.

Le ripercussioni sulla politica interna italiana

Come già accaduto a Hollande a novembre, anche Renzi deve rapportarsi con la popolarità delle scelte del suo governo in materia di politica estera. La scelta di entrare in guerra in Libia, seppur subordinata ad una richiesta del governo di unità nazionale, potrebbe portare ripercussioni sulla tenuta dell’esecutivo.

Ci sono tre ragioni a testimoniarlo. Il primo, la modalità d’intervento in Libia: ovvero, se a pieno regime o se solo come supporto agli alleati e alle forze di sicurezza locali. Il secondo, già intravisto negli effetti con la notizia della scomparsa dei due dipendenti della Bonatti: le ripercussioni della morte di soldati italiani inviati sul campo di battaglia. Il terzo, le Amministrative alle porte.

In definitiva, sul piano internazionale, oltre ad aspettare la formazione del governo d’unità nazionale libico, gli Stati Uniti vogliono accertarsi che l’Italia assuma il ruolo guida nell’operazione militare in Libia.

D’altro canto, questo contesto s’intreccia con il piano nazionale, dove dalla partita libica dipendono le sorti del governo Renzi.
Giacomo Pratali

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New people inserted in the anti-North Korea “Black list”

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Today, the Council of the European Union – which, we remember is the Union’s executive body – has added 16 persons and 12 entities to its “black list” of individuals and companies affected by restrictive measures taken by europe against the conduct of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

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The decision reflects the new requirements imposed by the 2270 resolution of the United Nations Security Council adopted on the 2nd March 2016 in response to the test launches of nuclear rockets by North Korea, which took place on January 6 and 7 February.
The formal proceedings of this diplomatic initiative will be published in the EU Official Journal tomorrow. The EU’s restrictive measures against North Korea have been introduced for the first time on 22 December 2006. Current measures comply with all the resolutions of the UN Security Council adopted after the launches and nuclear tests performed by North Korea, using ballistic missile technology, and also include additional measures taken by the EU autonomously. Such decision is to hit the North Koreans launch program policies.

 

 

The most important measures include import and export bans for weapons, and every object or technology that could contribute to such activities. Both the UN and the EU, independently, have also imposed restrictive measures for financial and commercial activities and transport services.

With this initiative, today, the European Union has strengthened its latest measures, which were decided on 22 April 2013, implementing the UN Security Council Resolution. 2094.

 

Domenico Martinelli

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EU rejects 308 refugees

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The EU Commission confirmed that Greece is rejecting 308 irregular migrants in Turkey. The European Union is in fact intensifying its efforts to ensure that those who did not qualify for international protection in Europe are rapidly and actually driven back to their countries of origin or sent back to the countries of transit.

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The Commissioner for Migration, Home Affairs and Citizenship, Dimitris Avramopoulos, said: “Under the EU-Turkey joint action plan we agreed to accelerate return and readmission procedures with Turkey. The European Commission has reinforced its support for cooperation on return between EU Member States and Turkey and today’s transfers of returnees from Greece to Turkey show that our efforts are starting to bear fruit. If we want to address the challenges of the refugee crisis successfully we need to get back to an orderly management of the migration flows: We have to make sure that those who are in need of protection will receive it, but it has to be clear as well that those who have no right to stay in the EU will be quickly and effectively returned“.

According to the Commission, to ensure that the European Common Asylum System will work, it is essential that the return policy is fully functioning. While fully respecting fundamental rights and the principle of reception, repatriation to countries of origin or to transit countries by irregular migrants who are not entitled to remain in the EU constitutes an essential part of overall efforts of EU to address the phenomenon of migration and, in particular, to reduce the regular immigration.

It is for this reason that the strengthening of cooperation on refoulement with Turkey is considered today as one of the main priorities of the European Commission. As part of the Joint Action Plan EU-Turkey, activated on November 29, the EU and Turkey have pledged to strengthen cooperation in the field of migration management – including the prevention of irregular migration flows towards EU – and in order to speed up the procedures for denial of entry of illegal immigrants, in line with the provisions specifically designed.

So yesterday and today, the return of illegal immigrants, mostly from Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia started.

A clear and unequivocal signal to those who know in advance to be not entitled to international protection.

 

Domenico Martinelli

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Iran: the country of Ayatollahs at the polls

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26 February 2016. An historical date for Iran that, for the first time after the end of the international sanctions, calls its citizens to the polls for a double vote, Parliament and Assembly of Experts. This vote is also a test for President Hassan Rouhani, who, since 2013, has been promoting political and social reforms, characterised by openness towards the West. The outcome of these elections, indeed, will show both to what extend the reformist line of the President is rooted in the society and which could be the future developments for the Republic.

The first vote will be cast for the Parliament, Majlis, consisting of 290 seats, 5 of them allocated to non-Muslim religious minorities. The Parliament is the legislative body, responsible for passing legislation, approving the annual budget and signing international treaties. To date, its majority, conservative and fundamentalist, has sharply contrasted Rouhani’s policies. It is clear how a different arrangement may influence the country’s future actions, as well as its posture in the international arena. “You have created a new atmosphere with your vote” tweeted president Rouhani after the elections.

The Assembly of Experts, instead, is composed of 88 members, exclusively Islamic scholars, serving eight-year terms. In fact, it is the most important body in the country, as it elects the Supreme Leader, the most powerful political and religious position. Considering the poor health condition for the current Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, it is very likely that the newly elected Assembly will select his successor.

Therefore, it is not just a nomination of candidates: it is a choice between two opposite political paths. The first is headed by president Rouhani and characterised by openness –especially economic openness- towards the West and by an attempt to promote a positive image of the country in the world. On the other hand, Ayatollah Khamenei, conservative and openly against the West, is the spokesman of a policy that aims to pursue a resistance economy and a political system based on the power of the Revolutionary Guards.

The results of the elections, which was attended by nearly 60% of the electorate (about 33 million Iranians), could have relevant consequences for the future of the Islamic Republic. Reformists won, controlling 96 seats in Parliament, while fundamentalists and independents won respectively 91 and 25 seats. However, two aspects should be pointed out. First, the concept of “reformism” should be seen through the lens of Iranian culture. Their reformism is far away from our reformism. It’s always about fundamentalism, though hidden behind a curtain of openness towards the West. Suffice to say that the real reformists have been disqualified from the list of eligible candidates in both the Parliament and the Assembly.

Secondly, we should consider the electoral base. Reformists have gained ground in metropolitan areas, while fundamentalists obtained more consensus in rural districts, home for one third of the population. However, the eight major cities, where almost half of the Iranians lives, won only 57 of 290 seats in Parliament. Given that 52 of these seats will be allocated in a runoff in late April, it seems that games are still open.

So what next?

Perhaps greater openness, yes, but it doesn’t mean, as some people think (or hope), that Iran will turn into a Western democracy. It is likely, and desirable, a détente in the relations between Iran and the West. However, we should bear in mind that Iran is still a fundamentalist regime, based on Shari’a, which, to date, refuses to give voice to the real reformists, who advocate a significant change in the political, economic and social system. Reformism, indeed, does not mean democracy.

Moreover, it is hard to believe that fundamentalists will easily give up. As percentages show, their ideas are mainly rooted in the rural society, which can still significantly affected the final composition of the Parliament. More than this. If Teheran celebrated the outcome of the elections, the reaction in Qom, Iran’s Shiite heartland, was different. “People in the real Iran are the ones here, we respect and follow the path laid down by Ayatollah Khomeini and we must protect our values”, said a 23-year-old clerical worker.

Questions remain about the future of the country. Despite the victory of reformists, fundamentalist strands are still eradicated in both the political élite and the society. Inevitably, there will be a change: however, we should keep our feet on the ground. It remains to be seen, indeed, whether the path of reformism will actually shape an Iran closer to Western democracies, or whether the hard-line fundamentalism will find a way to regain the support lost, thus hampering the openness towards the West promoted by Rouhani in recent years.

Libyan crisis and human trafficking, the future of EuNavFor Med

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Eunavfor Med is ready for the operational phase B2. The war against the traffickers in the Mediterranean will be fought in Libyan territorial waters, “but many political and legal challenges must be solved before we can recommend this transition, ” says Admiral Enrico Credendino, head of the European mission.

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Critical issues depends on the failure of the executive of national unity, without which the United Nations can’t authorize the arrest of traffickers and the destruction of the means directly on the ground. On 7 October 2015, the European Parliament announced the strengthening of military missions in the Mediterranean, aiming to board, search and seizure the boats used by the smugglers.
While the December signing in Morocco between some members of the Libyan social and political life for the formation of an executive of national unity turned out to be illusory, the head of mission of the United Nations Support (Unsmil), Martin Kobler, has welcomed the release of the establishment of the national unity government approved by the majority of the Libyan Parliament. But this announcement is not official.
Waiting for a political stability that averts the threat of Daesh and legitimate EuNavFor Med to a local remedial action aimed to stop the migratory hemorrhage destabilizing Europe, the mission remains temporarily “suspended” at the stage 2, that of the war against smugglers within 12 miles nautical from the Libyan coast. Although the international community supports the prime minister Fayez Al Sarraj, received in Italy by Matteo Renzi, the situation becomes critical. France, America and Britain could intervene with future air strikes against Isis bases in Libya, favored by the current institutional chaos.
The Foreign Italian Minister Paolo Gentiloni reiterates the urgency of the national government, and focuses on joint fight against terrorism. The chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Pierferdinando Casini, shares the same opinion, and declares that “the attack on 7 January in Zlitan against a police training center is part of the Islamic State strategy to postpone the settlement of the national unity executive agreed between the parties and the UN. “ Without a government internationally recognized, Eunavfor Med is designed to stall.
The command of the mission, however, suggests a future move to Stage 3, with operations even on the coast, in collaboration with the Libyan forces. The identification of objectives is necessary, to solve the intelligence gap on the smugglers’ business model. According Credendino, “When the stage 2B and 3 will start, other missions will be sponsored by the international community. Therefore the activities of EuNavFor Med and other operations should be coordinated in order to mitigate the risk of fratricide. The European operation’s mandate should be extended for the formation and training of the Libyan coast guard. “ The third step, which has not yet received the EU green light, would actually be the most effective, because the majority of the smugglers operate in Libyan waters. But as the Italian Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni affirms, “The UN Security Council can’t authorize an intervention without an express Libyan request». As for the results actually achieved, the mission has contributed to the arrest of 46 traffickers and to the destruction of 67 boats. “
14 European countries are participating in EuNavFor Med: Italy, UK, Germany, France, Spain, Slovenia, Greece, Luxembourg, Belgium, Finland, Hungary, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Sweden. Currently, six European warships are engaged offshore Libya: an Italian one, an English one, a French one, a Spanish one and two German, but other ships should be made available from England, Belgium and Slovenia. Four helicopters, many drones and 1300 military will be added to these.
The costs of military intervention – apart from an annually European contribution of 12 million Euros – are supported by the individual participating countries. Italy has contributed to the mission with a budget of 26 million euro and 1.020 soldiers.
Viviana Passalacqua

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Libya: what’s the real role of Italy?

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Syria more than Libya was the main topic during the Rome meeting of the anti-ISIS Small Group on February 2. Summit was held chaired by US Secretary of State John Kerry and the Minister of Foreign Affairs Paolo Gentiloni, the summit was attended by 23 foreign ministers, including the EU Representative Federica Mogherini.

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During the press conference after meeting, Kerry told about a global battle against Daesh in Syria, Iraq and Libya: “This theater of war will be longer, more than a war between two states”. He excluded the possibility of a ground intevention of US armed forces, but ensured logistical and training supports when new Libyan government will approve international military operation. Moreover, Secretary of State remembered that Italy is “one of the most active countries anti-ISIS”.

And Libya? Political impasse to create new government in Tripoli is not only favoring once again
the radicalization of Daesh, but is causing knock-out effects. Risk is only one: Western countries could repeat the same error of 2011 if did not wait for new government approval for military intervention.

As revealed by the Sunday Times, intelligences of the United Kingdom, United States and France would be active at a base near Tobruk, where they are already planning interventions on the ground and the introduction of a permanent headquarters. So, what this possibile UN military intervention really is? A support to local forces? Several bomb raid? Or even a ground intervention?

Last December, writing to his Italian counterpart Roberta Pinotti, US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter said: “I hope that Italy will take part in raid against Islamic State. “ Conflicting words compared with Kerry and Gentiloni recent statements.

Ultimately, this summit did not change anything about Libyan crisis. Moreover, this deadlock could relegate Italy to subordinate role during the probably UN military intervention.
Giacomo Pratali

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