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North Korea, and now?

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The day after the triumphant announcement of Pyongyang, which said it had successfully tested the first hydrogen bomb made in the nuclear facilities of North Korea, a demand bounces between the United Nations and the chancelleries of the major global powers: what to do now?

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For now, it must be said, skepticism prevails about the actual extent of the nuclear detonation obtained by the technicians of Pyongyang. The explosion occurred in the north of the country, near the Chinese border, was recorded by seismographs with a power between 4.8 and 5.1 on the Richter scale. According to South Korean experts, such a seismic response could correspond with a power of six kilotons, about a third of that given off by the bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945 and substantially incompatible with what would have been produced by a thermonuclear device, whose power is calculated generally in hundreds of kilotons. For comparison, the thermonuclear test conducted by the United States, in 1971, on the island of Amchitka in Alaska, produced an earthquake of magnitude 6.8, exponentially higher than that recorded yesterday.

It was an atomic bomb, therefore, and not an hydrogen one, that would require a technology that the regime of President Kim Yong-A probably still does not have. However, yesterday’s is the fourth test of North Korea, after those of 2006, 2009 and 2013; an explicit provocation against the American enemy, South Korea, Japan, Chinese ally, increasingly frustrated by the actions of the regime and, in general, of the international community. One answer seems inevitable, while studying new strategies to contain the North Korean threat in the medium term.

The Security Council of the United Nations immediately expressed its strong condemnation, saying that ” a clear threat to international peace and security continues to exist “, and announced new measures against Pyongyang for which is expected, in short, a resolution.

Among the most determined, the Japanese ambassador to the UN, Motohide Yoshikawa, who has called for a quick and vigorous resolution. ” The authority and credibility of the Security Council – he said – will be put in question if it does not take these measures.” It is not clear yet what kind of sanctions should be adopted and in what timeframe, while Russia pulls the brake, through his ambassador, not guaranteeing Moscow’s support for the adoption of additional sanctions. Indeed Pyongyang seems determined to go forward on the path of nuclear power, despite international condemnation and sanctions triggered by previous nuclear tests. Why should it be different this time?

A question that is not so relevant for the historical opponents of the regime. US, South Korea and Japan said they are prepared for a unified response against Pyongyang. President Obama has spoken with South Korean Prime Minister Park Geun-Hye and with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and then he has declared that three leaders agreed to ” agreed to work together to forge a united and strong international response to North Korea’s latest reckless behaviour”. He was echoed by President Abe: ” We agreed that the provocative act by North Korea is unacceptable… We will deal with this situation in a firm manner through the cooperation with the United Nations Security Council “, but added that Japan intends, if it will consider it necessary, to take unilateral measures. Seoul has finally released an official statement, asking the international community to ensure that “North Korea pays the corresponding price ” for its nuclear tests. In parallel, it has restricted access to the industrial park in Kaesong, managed jointly by the North and South and announced the restoration of propaganda broadcasts across the North Korean borders, interrupted in 2015 to ease tensions with the neighbor.

After this phase of hot reactions and new sanctions organization, it will be necessary to understand how to deal with a country that has a nuclear arsenal consisting of twenty devices (atomic or hydrogen they may be) and that might be able today, or in the short term, to mount a nuclear warhead on a medium-range missile, capable of threatening the South, Japan, the US troops stationed in the area and, perhaps, even the western coasts of the United States.

UN sanctions never had appreciable effects and the strategy of “strategic patience”, adopted by the US, could be tinged with excessive optimism. The idea that the sanctions could oblige the North Korean regime to yield and accept nuclear disarmament looks less and less convincing. To date, the US has refused to negotiate, if not on their terms, with North Korea, then choosing a different strategy from the one adopted for Iran, which has led to the recent negotiations and the subsequent agreement with Tehran.

As argued recently by Stephen W. Bosworth, the first Obama’s special envoy for North Korea, ” Whatever risks might be associated with new talks, they are less than those that come with doing nothing.” Since no power seems really willing to challenge militarily a dangerous enemy as North Korea, the game will have to be played on the field of diplomacy, before Pyongyang’s arsenal will be strengthened further and its missiles pointing technology taken to an higher level.

The strategy of Kim Yong-A is clear: the nuclear arsenal is a life insurance for the country and its enemies have only to lose, in front of the prospect of a dramatic conflict. Whether they like it or not, they will have to accept to sit at the negotiating table and recognize to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea the status of nuclear power. It is too early to say whether the facts will give him reason but the wind caused by the explosion, for now, seems to blow in his favor.

 

Luca Marchesini

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Bangladesh: 41 on trial for the Rana Plaza disaster

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April 24, 2013, the Rana Plaza, an eight-floors crumbling building that housed a bank, shops, apartments and some textile factories, collapsed on itself, killing 1,135 people and causing more than 2,500 injured.

 

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The building was located in an industrial suburb of Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh and since then his name is reminiscent of the worst disaster ever happened in the history of the textile industry. The victims were almost solely workers. The day before the crash some cracks had opened on the walls and the bank, as well as shops, had been closed for safety reasons. The owners of textile plants did not accept, however, to stop production and forced the working men and women to go to work. The next morning, at the peak of the influx, the walls crumbled and the palace crumpled in on itself, burying thousands of workers. The last four floors of the building, as it was learned later, had been raised illegally over the years.

The disaster directly called into question well known Americans and Europeans clothing brands, who subcontracted their production to local textile factories to save on labor costs, regardless of the poor condition imposed on the workers. Complaints, official engagements, international awareness campaigns, agreements between producers to improve workers conditions followed, but little was really done. In March 2014, only 7 out of the 29 brand involved were actually financing a solidarity fund in favor of the families of the victims.

Two and a half years after the massacre, on December 21, Bangladesh justice has finally called 41 people for trial. The accused will have to answer for one of the worst industrial disasters in history and might be sentenced to life imprisonment. The worst position is to Sohel Rana, the owner of Rana Plaza, accused of ordering the workers of the factories to go back to work, even though the inspection of the previous day had certified that the building was not safe.

Mr. Rana is the only defendant currently in custody. Sixteen are free on bail and for the other 24, now unreachable, orders of arrest have been issued on last Sunday.

The textile sector is still critical to the weak economy of Bangladesh, with exports generating a turnover of over 25 billion dollars. 60 percent of the production takes the road of Europe, supplying the warehouses of our clothing stores. The massacre of the Rana Plaza did not lead, however, to a significant improvement of working conditions in the textile industry, where accidents continue to occur, even if on a smaller scale. The producers have not lived up to their initial promise and continue to take advantage of a labor market that offers very low wages and significant profit margins.

The betrayal of the commitments was also certified by a recent study by the New York University, which showed that only 8 of the 3425 garment factories inspected in the country, have actually introduced improvements to raise standards of safety. Create a safer environment for workers, it says the report, is not impossible but it requires large investments in terms of time and money and the collaboration of all brands and governments involved.

At the moment, a paradigm shift seems unlikely while it seems real the risk that brands could decide to move the textile production to countries where they would be subject to fewer controls. A potentially lethal paradox for the economy of Bangladesh.

 

Luca Marchesini

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The Spleen of Beijing

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To understand what is happening in China we can start from a grotesque news that comes from North America. The Canadian company Vitality Air had recently launched, a bit as a joke, a new product: bottles filled with the crystal clear air of the Rocky Mountains. Within a few days the stocks went sold out and all orders came from China. The country is in fact experiencing in recent weeks a real environmental emergency, because of the very high levels of smog and particulates recorded in major cities.

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After the “red alert” declared by the authorities last week, which paralyzed the capital Beijing with the closure of schools, construction sites and public offices, the health of Chinese citizens continue to be threatened. The problem is determined by the huge consumption of coal and other fossil fuels that pushes the economic growth of the Asian giant. The exhaust fumes of cars, despite popular belief, only partially contribute to the formation of smelling clouds that wrap Beijing and other big cities of the most industrialized regions. In fact, the country is experiencing its industrial revolution and the coal, like what happened in Europe in the nineteenth century, is feeding the motor of development. Making the due proportions, the consequences on environmental scale are dramatic and affect the entire planet.

After Beijing, Shanghai also has been enveloped by a thick smog, last Tuesday. In the economic capital of the country the air quality index value reached 300, which is considered “hazardous” to human health with possible long-term repercussions. Not much, compared to the values ​​recorded in the capital and in the northern cities last week, but still enough to encourage the local authorities to declare a “yellow alert” and intervene to limit construction activities and prohibit students to get out of school buildings during the morning, when the smog level are higher.

The difficulties on the environmental front that the country daily faces are even more striking, after the approval of the agreement on the climate conference Cop21 of Paris, which ended last week. Also the Chinese delegation joined the agreement, whose real effectiveness has been questioned by many in recent days, with judgments often far apart. For Chinese representatives, the final document is an acceptable compromise between the needs of the country’s development and the commitments to reduce greenhouse gases in the medium term. Certainly, the delegation headed by Xie Zhenhua pushed for a limitation of the legally binding commitments, but the non-subscription by the most polluting country in the world would have decreed the failure of the summit.

What does the Paris Agreement envisage? In short, the signatories undertake to reach the peak of emissions as soon as possible, then move on to a significant reduction of greenhouse gases in the second half of the century. The common objective, which is considered vital by the experts, is to limit the average increase in global temperatures “well below” the two degrees and focusing, if possible, to the maximum limit of 1.5 C. The progress of the plan will be monitored every five years and, by 2020, $ 100 billion a year will be allocated in favour of developing countries for the implementation of environmental projects. After 2020, the funding is expected to increase to an extent yet to be determined.

According to some observers, the limit of two degrees will be difficult to comply with, but for the first time China and other great polluting countries of the developing world have decided to formally join the common effort. The change of direction, according to Naomi Klein, is also determined by the fact that the living conditions of the Chinese are getting really worse, because of pollution, and that the children of the elites of the country are beginning to directly suffer its effects. It may not be necessary to slow the train of industrial development, but a gradual conversion from coal to other forms of more sustainable energy is already an unavoidable prospect.

And the same might be valid for India.

 
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In China the pollution emergency continues

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The Paris summit Cop21 climate finished and delegates feverishly worked to find a final agreement that does not result in a mere declaration of intent. China was heavily involved in the debate, since it was suspended between the requirements of industrial development and the need to cut emissions and greenhouse gases, for the good of the planet and of its own citizens.

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China, despite some slowing, is still growing at a fast pace and feeds its industrial development with a high consumption of coal and other polluting fuels. December 2nd, at the Paris summit, Beijing has announced its plans to cut the main pollutant emissions over 4 years. By 2020 they will be cut by 60% and, at the same time, it should be a reduction, for industry, of 180 million tons of CO2 each year. It remains to understand what China means by “major pollutants” and if, among them, will be considered greenhouse gases.

Beyond the skepticism expressed by some, it seems that Beijing wants to redesign its growth model, reducing the use of coal and betting on forms of clean and renewable energy. The environmental issue is not only about the near future of the country. Even the present is heavily involved, because air pollution has reached alarming levels both in Beijing and in other major cities in China. Earlier this week, in the capital has been proclaimed the red alert, after that smog levels far in excess of the permitted range have been recorded, with harmful consequences for the health of citizens.

The emergency measures, which included the closure of schools and construction sites and a sharp reduction in private circulation, have proved effective, and the sun has returned to make its appearance in the skies long obscured of the megalopolis. The red alert now ceased, but the problem was just postponed. The warning pollution does not afflict only Beijing. In the big cities of northern China the authorities did not adopt measures whatsoever and tens of millions of people continue to breathe extremely toxic air, with values ​​of harmfulness even higher than those that led to the paralysis of the capital.

As reported by The New York Times, in Anyang, Henan Province, the air quality index showed a value of 999, three times higher than that registered in Beijing earlier this week. In the city of Handan, Hebei Province, it has been slightly better, with the indicator stopped at 822. For instance, a value of 300, the United States, is already considered dangerous to human health. Much of the pollution that grips Beijing is not produced from the drainpipes of cars, but comes from the north where, to meet industrial needs, are burned every day huge quantities of coal.

The central government and the provincial governments are therefore called upon to take prompt action to protect the health of their citizens, requiring the adoption of emergency procedures standardized in all regions of the country, involving also construction sites and factories. Once past the emergency, it will be necessaire to quickly understand how to balance the demands of industrial development which led China’s GDP to exceed the American one, with the imperatives of public health, in China and elsewhere. The commitments announced by the Chinese delegation to the climate conference in Paris seem a step in the right direction, but the claims will have to be followed by concrete action. In a very short time.

 

Luca Marchesini

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Myanmar: Suu Kyi and peaceful transition

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For the new Myanmar of Aung San Suu Kyi is the time of “peace talks”. After the victory of the National League of Democracy (NLD) in the election three weeks ago, the leader of the movement, historical activist for human rights in the former Burma, met President Thein Sein, head of the government that, in 2011, marked the beginning of the democratic transition of the country, after 49 years of military dictatorship.

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The meeting lasted 45 minutes, during which they discussed the terms of a painless handover between the outgoing executive, with a civil profile but supported and appointed by the Junta, and the new government of the NLD, which won the elections of November 8 with an overwhelming majority.

Eight out of ten voters voted for the party of Suu Kyi, even if the know that the Nobel Prize for peace could not directly exercise power, because of constitutional restrictions prohibiting anyone with children of foreign nationality to become prime minister. But Aung San Suu Kyi immediately made clear its intention to play a leading role in the new government. The name of next Prime Minister has not yet been made public, but the most important decisions for the future of the country will be taken by her.

In the role of de facto leader, the Burma ”Iron Orchid ” met, on Dec. 2, the outgoing President Thien Sein and the Army Chief, Min Aung Hlaing. The meeting was held in Nay Pyi Taw, the city 320 kilometers from Yangon, which in 2005 was elevated to the role of capital. In the talk, which lasted less than an hour, Suu Kyi asked the representatives of the old power bloc to ensure a peaceful and painless handover. Sein and Hlaing offered their commitment, ensuring that there won’t be attempts of interference in the way of transition.

The concerns of the leaders of the NLD are dictated by the fact that the military retain a quarter of the seats in both houses of Parliament of Myanmar and, with them, the power of veto over constitutional reforms and key positions in the main ministries. Caution is required in consideration of the dramatic experiences of the past. The party of Aung San Suu Kyi won the election even in 1990, but the result was ignored by the military junta and, since then, Suu Kyi was under house arrest for a total period of 15 years. Confidence, since then, has become a rare commodity.

The victory of the NLD in the elections has generated excitement and new expectations on the path of democratization of the country, especially at international level. According to Miemie Byrd, professor of Burmese origin of the ‘Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, interviewed by Al Jazeera, however, optimism is excessive.

” My concern is that the international community’s reaction and interpretation (about elections) could exacerbate the conflicts and challenges inside Myanmar”,” she said, adding that the country still has a long way to go. “Whomever is at the leadership of the new government will be limited by the above challenges to quickly advance the reforms and progress. You just can’t get the bullock cart to go as fast as an automobile. ” The international community, she concluded, must “exercise patience and have realistic expectations” on the speed of the transition process.

 

Luca Marchesini

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Dispute between the US and China for control of the South China Sea goes on

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During the Asia-Pacific Cooperation Summit in Manila, which ended last week, President Barack Obama reiterated the US position, calling on China to stop the construction of artificial islands and new infrastructure in the area of ​​sea dispute. The answer wasn’t long in coming. At the summit of the ASEAN countries, held in Kuala Lumpur, Beijing, through the Deputy Chinese Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin, accused Washington of wanting an escalation and defended the construction activities at sea, launched in 2013 and still in progress today.

First Obama, at the opening of the APEC summit in Manila, last Wednesday, pushed the issue of the South China Sea on the political agenda of the 21 leaders. After meeting with the President of the Philippines, Benigno S. Aquino III, Obama spoke to the press urging Beijing to cease all military activity in that part of the sea and to accept international arbitration to reconcile differences with its neighbors in South-East Asia.

“We agree on the need for bold steps to lower tensions – Mr. Obama said – including pledging to halt further reclamation, new construction and militarization of disputed areas in the South China Sea,”

Without taking a position on the front of the territorial claims made by the involved countries, the United States consider free navigation on the waters of the contended area as a vital point. For this reason, they confirmed their commitment to the side of the South Asian governments who oppose Chinese expansionism, and ensured the Allies a contribution of $ 250 million for military spending.

Beijing’s response came on November 22, during the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur. Deputy Chinese Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin asserted the legitimacy and legality of Chinese government initiatives, reiterating that China has no intention to terminate the building of new facilities off its southern coast. Zhenmin then replied to the American accusations, denying that Beijing is proceeding to a progressive militarization of the area. From Chinese prospective, Washington should instead halt its provocations after that, last month, an American navy ship crossed a maritime area that Beijing regards as part of its territorial waters.

“Building and maintaining necessary military facilities, this is what is required for China’s national defence and for the protection of those islands and reefs,” Deputy Foreign Minister said, adding that Beijing intends to “expand and upgrade” civil infrastructure ” to better serve commercial ships, fishermen, to help distressed vessels and provide more public services.”

The two main contenders positions are, therefore, very far and nothing portends, at this time, a change of course by the Chinese battleship.

North Korea announces the Seventh Congress of the Communist Party

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North Korea announced that the next year it will be hold the seventh unitary Congress of the Workers’s Party. The event is meaningful, in consideration of two elements: the last congress organized by the Communist Party of North Korea dates back to 1980, over 35 years ago; on this occasion, Kim Jong-Il, father of current President Kim Jong-un, made his political debut with an appearance that marked his preeminent position on the succession line. The transfer of power was realized only a few years later, in 1994, with the death of the Eternal President Kim Il Sung.

The seventh congress should take place in May 2016, as reported last Thursday by KCNA, the regime’s news agency. Officially, the plenary meeting has been called to reflect “the demand of the party and the developing revolution.”, in the aftermath of the celebrations for the 70th anniversary of the Communist Party of North Korea, with magnificent military parades that took place a few weeks ago. In fact, the news has generated a wave of speculation on the part of international and South Korean analysts about the real implications of the event.

The Congress could reaffirm the central role of President Kim Jong-Un in the management of power, and serve as a stage to announce economic reforms or new diplomatic relations, to reduce the country’s isolation on the international scene. It could also lead to a reshuffle in the party, with the replacement of some officials with others closer to the dictator. A second hypothesis concerns a possible shift in the internal balance, with a transfer of power by the army in favor of the Party, in a country always marked by a military-political dualism in which the

Socialist armed forces have the fundamental role of economic engine. In this case, the President may decide to eliminate the system of “National Defense Commission,” which has always played a key role in state affairs, transferring its functions from the Army to the Worker’s Party.

In any case, it is possible to speculate about significant changes that could even affect the theoretical physiognomy of Juche, the self-sufficiency and nationalism based theory on which the north Korean communism has built its specificity, In opposition to Marxist-Leninist internationalism.

South China Sea: big dispute for its control

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The main players in this story are four: China, the Philippines, the US and Japan. The stakes are enormous: the control of the waters of the South China Sea, at the crossroads of the interests of the powers involved.

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For months now, the US is engaged in a verbal escalation with China. Beijing, in fact, does not hide his expansionist aims on the portion of ocean that flow through its southern coasts and it is building artificial islands to move forward to a few tens of kilometers the limits of its territorial waters. A forced widening of the borders that is putting in turmoil Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia as well, since they advance their own claims on that same sea segment.

China has repeatedly asked the US not to exacerbate the mood flying over the artificial islands with its aircrafts and bringing the ships of its fleet to sail near their coasts. The United States has responded sharply, appealing to international maritime law, and securing to its regional allies the cooperation of the US Navy for the control of Chinese positions.

It should be borne in mind that, in this area of ​​the world, water control and the ability to put a national flag on even very small portions of landmass is not just a symbolic goal. In fact, the patrolling of certain maritime communications, through the construction of military bases, gives the direct control of shipping trade and access roads to economic and strategic fundamental resources. The control of an isolated rock or a stretch of reef may have serious repercussions in terms of economic growth and political stability.

For China is, first and foremost, a matter of regional sovereignty, with inevitable global repercussions. For the United States, the main concern is represented by the freedom of navigation in the Pacific rim, where the US has built its own supremacy, after the end of the Cold War, with the help of regional allies, primarily Japan and South Korea. However, China is now questioning this assumption, emerging as a new power in the South China Sea and making explicit its hegemonic ambitions over the area. A redefinition of the balances that Washington sees as a serious problem.

Supremacy on the water has always been a fundamental element of American global strategy. Control over the seas, assured by the military supremacy of the US Navy, guarantees fast and secure trade routes for goods going to or coming from US ports and allows to quickly move large amounts of troops in case of need, even at a great distance. But these same necessities have now become vital for China, a global power whose economy is increasingly focused on export and therefore require more control over maritime trade routes, especially in the South China Sea, rich in fishery resources and natural gas. China is therefore trying to reshape the status quo, taking advantage of the weakness of regional adversaries, unable to cope with the Asian giant on the military level, and the uncertainties of American rival, who seems unwilling to use the force of weapons to contain its expansionist ambitions.

However, the Chinese construction activities in the middle of Southern Sea provoked the strong irritation of the Southeast Asia neighbors, primary the Philippines who claim sovereignty over many of the small islands cemented by the Chinese construction activities. China, however, think that is possible to control the countries of ASEAN, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, acting directly on the organization at the political level and operating its economic and military levers against the single states involved. Beijing also trust to be able to manage the reactions of Washington, in the belief that the US will avoid any escalation, fearing a direct conflict in the waters of the South China Sea. The facts, so far, proved China is right.

It remains to understand what is the position of Japan within this puzzle. The power of the Rising Sun is perhaps the only opponent that China really fears, right now. For the first time in decades, Japan seems determined to take a more active role in the Pacific and the South China Sea. Tokyo recently has signed new agreements with Manila and other ASEAN countries to conduct joint operations and to facilitate the supply of its fleet and its aircrafts. In return, he offered to the Philippines and Vietnam ships and aircrafts for the Navy and the Coast Guard. Japan has also reached an agreement with the US to carry out joint patrol operations in the South China Sea, starting next year.

Why this new activism? Japan is an island, with few natural resources. Tokyo must therefore necessarily safeguard its own interests on the seas, to ensure the subsistence of the Japanese economy, and it has realized that the new Chinese expansionism is a threat that can not remain unanswered.

From the point of view of Beijing, the new policy of Tokyo is a serious problem, especially if Japan acts in synergy with the United States for the creation of a joint force in the South China Sea. The answer for now is diplomatic. Through various channels, Beijing is trying to persuade Washington not to engage in the side of Japan, suggesting that Tokyo would be pursuing only its own interests in the area. Looking ahead, China also suggest that the conflict could lead to a possible military escalation with the Philippines, supported by Japan, for of the disputed islands control. A scenario that would oblige the US to make a difficult choice: whether or not to intervene on the side of its ally, with all the military and political consequences that the decision would generate.

 

Luca Marchesini

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Thailand-Japan: together against terrorism

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Monday, November 16, as part of the bilateral talks at the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum of Manila, the Thai Foreign Minister Don Pramudwinai and his Japanese counterpart Fumio Kishida have reached a preliminary agreement for cooperation in the fight against international terrorism. The agreement comes in response to the attacks that have bloodied Paris on the night of Friday and to the attack suffered by the Thai capital in August, which killed 20 people.

 

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” The international community – said Kishida – should be united to resolutely condemn the terrorist acts”. The two ministers then promised closer cooperation between their countries in the fight against the terrorist threat.

4500 Japanese companies operates in Thailand and over 60,000 Japanese citizens live and work in the country. Foreign Minister Kishida has therefore asked the Thai government to do everything is possible to ensure the safety of its citizens and to protect Nipponese investments. At the same time, he confirmed the support of his government for the development of new infrastructure in the country of Southeast Asia, starting from the rail network.

The meeting also focused on the South China Sea issue and tensions involving the powers of the area, for the control of maritime communications. Keshida hopes that ASEAN, the Association of South-East Asian Nations, launches a joint appeal at the next summit in Kuala Lumpur to demand greater regional stability and respect for the rule of law.

Japan, in fact, is directly interested in the dispute. Although Tokio has not territorial claims, It considers crucial for japanase economy to ensure free navigation on the South China Sea waters and is putting pressure on the Southeast Asia countries to create a joint front that could limit Chinese expansionism. A difficult goal to achieve since Beijing is acting in parallel, on the diplomatic front, to strengthen its positions and weaken the ASEAN countries claims.

Even the Asian stocks initially suffered the effects of the Paris attacks, with substantial losses on Monday, when the markets opened. Fear was short-lived, on the financial markets, and already on Tuesday the main lists of the continent were back in positive territory, with gains over 1%, after the European and US stock markets recorded a first bounce.

 

Luca Marchesini

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China says stop to the one-child policy

Asia @en di

The 18th Plenum of the Chinese Communist Party, which has defined the lines of the five-year plan that will bring the Asian giant at the turn of the next decade, is intended to go down in history for its decisions related to demographic policies. The 200 members of the Central Committee of the party, that have met last Thursday, have indeed marked the end of the over thirty-year one-child policy.

The 18th Plenum of the Chinese Communist Party, which has defined the lines of the five-year plan that will bring the Asian giant at the turn of the next decade, is intended to go down in history for its decisions related to demographic policies. The 200 members of the Central Committee of the party, that have met last Thursday, have indeed marked the end of the over thirty-year one-child policy.

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Already in 2013, restrictions was loosened and couples consisting of two only children were been granted to have up to two children. From today, this possibility will be available to all, with no risk of fines and penalties by the authorities.

The one-child policy was introduced in China in 1979, with the aim to reduce the overpopulation in a country still poor and poorly industrialized. In purely numerical terms, the population control policies have been successful. Some estimates they have reduced the number of inhabitants of 400 million, compared to projections related to the previous birth rate. But the tight state control over births produced also negative effects. Over the last 36 years more boys than girls are born in China, resulting in a strong gender imbalance and consequent social tensions. In addition, the one-child policy has led to an aging population and a reduction in the number of young working people, with a parallel increase in the share of pensioners. The risk, for China, was growing too old before reaching a widespread prosperity.

The decisions made by the Plenum, however, will have effect only in the long run and it will take decades to reverse the trend and to correct the distortions caused by the strict population control. And the results could be different than expected. China is in fact a country divided in two parts, from an economic and social point of view. 400 million Chinese live on the coasts, in the more developed regions, where the cost of living is higher and where the most of the new middle class lives. The other 900 million still live in the less developed inland areas, where the effects of economic growth have been slow in coming. It is likely that the populations of these areas, with the end of the one-child policy, will grow faster than the populations in coastal areas, making the gap, between the two souls of the contemporary China, still deeper.

The problem is accentuated by the slowdown in economic expansion. During the years of the GDP growth at double digits, it was believed that poorer China would have inevitably benefit, in the long run, from the long wave of development. For the next five years, however, the Plenum has planned a “medium-high growth “, in the order of 6-7% per annum. The demand for cheap labor from coastal areas, that the interior regions have always taken charge of, could decrease as a consequence. The reduction in labor offer, along with a new demographic rush, could therefore have and heavy relapse on the poorest rural areas, with social consequences which are difficult to predict.
Luca Marchesini

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