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Iran nuclear deal: pros and cons

After 16 days of negotiations, yesterday the US, EU, Russia, Great Britain and China, and Iran reached historical deal on the nuclear program in Vienna. A pact that works for reduction of he production of uranium in Teheran for the next 10 years. And, at the same time, it stops sanctions and trade sanctions.

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Although this is the formal end to decades of conflict with the West, especially during the Presidency of George W. Bush, the Israel’s contrary reaction and the contemporart and inconsistent alliance between Washington and Sunni’s countries, like Saudi Arabia, could be a warning for the International Community.

Inspired by the cartel the previous April 3, the agreement includes four key points. The cut of 98% of the stocks of enriched uranium. The use of centrifuges reduced to two-thirds. The possibility, not automatic,of Alea inspections on Iran’s nuclear facilities, after approval of the court arbitrary composed by the same countries that have signed the agreement. The gradual reduction of the arms embargo within the next five years. The UN resolution is expected next week, when it meets the Security Council.

The heart of the matter between the US and Iran is mainly the use of enriched uranium for civilian and not military. But also there’s the will to create a diplomat axiswith the biggest Shiite state in the Middle East, able to support the Assad regime in Syria or Hezbollah in Lebanon and decisive in the reconquest of the north-western territories in Iraq, now under the Caliphate.

Additionally, beyond this agreement, there’s the oil question. Iran is the fourth largest producer in the world and, with the end of the embargo, will increase its production. The effect could be the oil drum’s fall in price on the International Markets. Moreover, until the seventies, Europe was the first foreign market for Teheran.

US President Obama said: “No deal means a greater chance of more war in the Middle East. America negotiated from a position of strength and principle and stopped the spread of nuclear weapons. The comprehensive, long-term deal, demonstrated that American diplomacy can bring meaningful change”. And warned Congress he would veto any legislation that prevented its successful implementation.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani talks about “historic deal which opened a new chapter in Iran’s relations with the world”. Eu High Representative Mogherini thinks that the deal is ‘a sign of hope for the entire world’. While is a “sigh of relief for the entire world” in Russian President Putin’s opinion.
The chorus, however, was not unanimous at all the International Community. Predictably, Israel’s response was not long in coming: “The agreement is a historical mistake. “The world is a much more dangerous place today than it was yesterday. The leading international powers have bet our collective future on a deal with the foremost sponsor of international terrorism. “In the coming decade, the deal will reward Iran, the terrorist regime in Tehran, with hundreds of billions of dollars. This cash bonanza will fuel Iran’s terrorism worldwide, its aggression in the region and its efforts to destroy Israel, which are ongoing”. Whereas an official of the government of Saudi Arabia denounced the possibility that Iran could “devastate the Middle East”.

The contradictions within the deal, as the contemporary US alliance with Saudi coalition in Yemen against Houtii (Shiite’s faction supported by Tehran), could bring a long-term strategy. The chance given by the United States and its allies to Iran is directed to the Iranian civil society. The opening to the outside could bring the Shiites and the Sunnis to talks again. This could be an effective weapon against the expansionism of the Islamic State.

Not only abroad. Much of the criticism have come from the United States’s press. Bret Stephen (Wall Street Journal) said that “the agreement will be disastrous” and “unlikely Iran’s foreign policy will change”. Indeed, the deal could backfire on Washington.

 

Giacomo Pratali

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Yemen: Saudi coalition is targeting civilians

Middle East - Africa di

People killed by Sunnis bombing are constantly increasing. Houtii are trying to conquer Aden. It’s crucial the International Community partecipation to stop civilians’ slaughter.

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Yemen’s war is becoming more and more bloody. On the one hand, the Houthis are continuing their advance towards Aden. On the other hand, the Sunni coalition, led by Saudi Arabia and supported by United States, has targeted Sanaa, Shiite stronghold.

Over 200 deaths (74 children) and at least 1300 injured since two weeks ago: are figures of the recent clash between local rebels and the Saudi aviation. These numbers are even more dramatic if we think that the civil war of the millennium, between Shiites and regular army, brought almost 13 thousand people live in refugee camps. Same refugee camps affected by the Sunnis bombing.

While consultations are ongoing at the UN Security Council, Houthi leaders said they were ready to negotiate peace if the Sunni coalition would cease forcing by land and sea. Saudi King Salman said to be available to the ceasefire, but the events are proving wrong him.

Indeed, Riyadh is supporting the regular army yemen in an attempt to halt the advance Shiite at Aden. And, as reported by the Foreign Minister of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia has requested military aid.

In this story, the determining role is once again for United States. Yemen looks increasingly like the uncontrollable Afghanistan. However, this war could further increase the Islamic State pretensions in Syria, Iraq, Libya and Nigeria. Finally, it is not acceptable that Washington remains silent over this violation of international law against civilians.

Giacomo Pratali

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Giacomo Pratali
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