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libya war

Libya, US: new Iraq on the horizon?

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Yesterday Tobruk parliament once again postponed voting on new government until February 29. Meanwhile, the US and its European partners are thinking about a military intervention without Libyan approval: Islamic State’s stabilization and about 6,000 enlisted were changing Libya in the new Iraq.

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During February, several news about the US, UK and France landing at Libya were been reported by international press. The last one is about France which, as written by Le Monde, should have send about 180 soldiers against Daesh.

Even United States is preparing a military plan. After agreement with Italian government, which allowed US drones to fly out for attacks on Daesh, Barack Obama is pressing not only Libyan factions to ratify national unity government, but also Rome to play an active role in an always more probably military intervention in Libya.

The risk is especially one: repeating the same mistake of 2011. But the hesitation of Libyan House of Representatives could cause a plan B. A scenario which could exclude the Italian leadership in international operation and unpopular with al-Sarraj government and the majority of population. Indeed, they would want a military training and assistance from foreign countries.

If United States and its partners decided to intervene without new government approval, Islamic State could increase its popularity among foreign fighters and Libyan people because the war could become a war between Islam and West.

Beyond these doubts, Obama’s political consultants push to immediately go in Libya, as reported by Washington Post. Indeed, Libya is becoming new Daesh headquarters, where always more jihadists are enlisting them. In this way, it could repeat the same context of Iraq in 2014, when the White House didn’t intervene until the next 18 months and Islamic State strengthened its positions.
Giacomo Pratali

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Libya: agreement in the balance

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Tobruk rejects the Council of Presidency, but does not formally vote on the proposal on 9 October. International Community is waiting for Tripoli response. National unity government hangs in the balance. However, Leon mandate at maturity and Daesh radicalization require a quickly change.

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UN envoy Bernardino Leon buoyancy at the end of favorable negotiations on October 9, in which it was drawn up draft agreement and national unity government designations, contradicts Tobruk Parliament rejection on October 19 of Presidential Council submitted by the United Nations.

Then, not a formal vote against the deal. However, the 153 deputies of the Assembly have sent a powerful message to the United Nations and Tripoli. A discontent consisted of seventy representatives, who are ready, as reported by Libyan Herald, to distance themselves from the Tobruk position.

Now, there is waiting for Tripoli response, even if the premises on October 19, when draft was turned down by GNC head Nuri Abu Sahimin, who has disapproved “formal invitation to New York in the presence of Tobruk Foreign Minister, supported by an illegal parliament since resolved by the Constitutional Court, a Libyan delegate to the UN removed by Congress and Egypt and Emirates Foreign ministers “.

However, Tobruk Parliament’s mandate has just officially expired Monday, October 19 (though it has since been extended). Just as Leon, to whom will succeed the German Martin Kobler and close to the failure of his mission in Libya. And EU military, economical and social plan in support of the national unity government, announced by High Representative Federica Mogherini last October 20, seems unrealistic if Tobruk and Tripoli will not say yes to the United Nations draft.

In addition to the joint statement of several countries in recent days, the reactions of the last hours minimize what happened in Tobruk: “It did not approve nor reject. It was only decided not to submit the proposal to the vote of the Chamber of Representatives “, Italian Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni said. While Leon reiterated that “the process goes on. There is no chance for small groups or personalities to hijack this process. The political solution is the only real alternative,” Leon restated.

Next hours are crucial. The several institutional deadlines but, above all, Daesh radicalization in a strategic city as Benghazi demands an urgent political unique solution.

Giacomo Pratali

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Giacomo Pratali
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