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Libya: new government and UN intervention

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At the end of the International Conference on Libya in Rome, the US secretary of State John Kerry discloses the new government is to be formed within 40 days . While “the implementation of UNSCR 2213 and other relevant Resolutions to address threats to Libya’s peace, security, and stability” will be voted on December 17.

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“We affirm our full support for the Libyan people in maintaining the unity of Libya and its institutions that function for the benefit of the whole Country.  A Government of National Accord based in the capital Tripoli is urgently needed to provide Libya the means to maintain governance, promote stability and economic development.  We stand with all Libyans who have demanded the swift formation of a Government of National Accord based upon the Skhirat Agreement, including representatives of the majority members of the House of Representatives and General National Congress, Independents, Municipalities, political parties, and civil society who convened in Tunis on December 10-11. We welcome the announcement that the Libya political dialogue members will sign the political agreement in Skhirat on December 16. We encourage all political actors to sign this final agreement on December 16 and call on all Libyans to unite behind the Libya Political Agreement and the Government of National Accord.”

This is the most important passage in the joint communique publish after the International Conference on Libya, occured in Rome on 13 December and endorsed by Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. This public statement was signed by the EU, UN, LAS, AU and the 17 participating countries: Algeria, Saudi Arabia, China, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, France, Germany, Jordan, Italy, Morocco, Qatar, United Kingdom, Russia, Spain , United States, Tunisia, Turkey. The next step will be the signing in Morocco on December 16 and the UN Security Council Resolution on December 17, when permanent member will vote the humanitarian military intervention.

The rapid advance by Daesh, the rise of Sirte as Caliphate stronghold and the failed institutions imposed a global solution. Moreover, other enemy countries, which fight in Libya through local groups, were present: Saudi Arabia and Egypt, Qatar and Turkey. Just as the same representative of Libya factions, including GNC and Tobruk-based parliament leaders.

Rome, as Syria peace talks in Vienna, followed the same method. Europe, the US, Russia and China worked together to support stabilization in Libya, in order to stop Daesh.

“We cannot allow the status quo in Libya to continue. It is dangerous for the viability of Libya, it is dangerous for Libyans, and now, because of the increase of the presence of Daesh [Isis] purposefully migrating there, it is dangerous for everyone,” the US secretary of State John Kerry said. Italy’s foreign minister Paolo Gentiloni believes that “time is fundamental and we must speed up the solution to the Libyan crisis in the face of threats that also come from terrorism.”

Therefore, Italy comes back protagonist of international scene, after cautious attitude towards Syrian front. After over a year of negotiations in Libya, the UN delegate Martin Kobler, succeded Bernardino Leon, wants to force more than 200 yes from Tobruk-based parliament representative on December 16, despite their scepticism.

The UN military operation nature is still to explain. Because of Daesh radicalization, it will not probably be a peacekeeping mission: “We reiterate our full support for the implementation of UNSCR 2213 and other relevant Resolutions to address threats to Libya’s peace, security, and stability. Those responsible for violence and those who obstruct and undermine Libya’s democratic transition must be held strictly accountable. We stand ready to support the implementation of the political agreement and underline our firm commitment to providing the Government of National Accord with full political backing and technical, economic, security and counter-terrorism assistance, as requested.”
Giacomo Pratali

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Iran, stop sanctions: geopolitical and economic effects

The Un resolution officially stops Teheran trade sanctions. “It’s the only chance to stop the nuclear program” the Us government said. While it’s an important commercial solution for Europe and Italy.

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Thanks to the UN resolution on 20th July, the Security Council has approved the end of sanctions against Iran. Go ahead, then, to the pact between the 5 + 1 and Teheran found in Vienna last 14th July. The document will come into effect no earlier than 90 days.

A historical agreement for the West in geopolitical and economic point of views. Geopolitical for the United States, as noted on July 23 by the US Secretary of State Kerry: “We could certainly expect Iran fall – he told the Congress -. But it was the best possible option. I hope that the Congress (addressing to the Republican Party, ed) approve because this is the only chance to stop the nuclear program and avoid the risk of a military clash,”he concluded.

But in addition to policy issues in the Arab world, solutions are also commercial. Executive Vice President and General Manager of Saras (Italian oil refining company) Dario Scaffardi, in a summit on business and finance, as well as underlining the benefits that the decline in oil prices has already resulted in the international market, has reported that, following the end of the embargo, his group has been contacted by Iran, got back to be the protagonist of the international market of crude oil. The return to oil production from Teheran “will carry a million barrels of crude oil per day on the market once the sanctions removed. With the possibility of adding 0.5-1 million barrels quickly enough, “said the manager of Moratti family factory.

On the Italian front, also, next 4th and 5th August, the Minister of Foreign Affairs Gentiloni Economic the Minister of Economical Development Federica Guidi will travel to Iran together with representatives of Italian largest industrial groups. The goal is getting back to a significant foreign trade with Teheran. In fact, before the revolution of 1979, Europe was the first import and export partner of the former Persia. In the early 1990s, this primacy went to Russia, which, in addition to geopolitical relations of friendship, made meaningful investment on oil and gas.
Giacomo Pratali

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Ukraine: Russian soldiers “were armed, but had no orders to shoot”

Europe di

They caught fighting with the Donbass rebels. Despite the daily non-compliance of the ceasefire, the civil war is not going anywhere. Next winter could be crucial to Ukrainian national unity.

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“They were armed, but they had no orders to shoot. One of them said he had received orders from his military unit to go to Ukraine”. Today, th eOsce communcates it after two Russian soldiers were captured on Ukrainian soil while fighting alongside the pro-Russian militias on Monday, May18. After the arrival of military convoys last winter, intercepted by US satellites, this has definitely proved external interferences in the Donbass’ civil war. Interference which follows the video, of January 2015, whereas a US soldier was shot with Kiev’s army.

But the crisis in Ukraine still seems to be not going anywhere. Despite continuous clashes, especially near the airport of Donetsk and around the port city of Mariupol, confirm the no-compliance of the ceasefire declared by Minsk Protocol. The real showdown could take place next winter, when gas issue, supplied by Moscow, will become relevant again.

Meanwhile, the War has apparently become less Cold on the international front. The meetings in mid-May between the Secretary of State Kerry and President Putin, the first official visit on Russian soil since the crisis Ukrainian, show a willingness to dialogue between Washington and Moscow.

As well as having discussed the Syria case, the possible sale of Russian S-300 missiles to Iran and the Yemen war, Ukraine’s future was the main topic on the table. The US should want to entered in negotiating table consists of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany, which led to the Protocol of Minsk in February.

According to the Minister of Foreign Affairs Lavrov, Kerry said that respect for these agreements should lead to the end of civil war in the Donbass. However Kiev’s desire to recover militarily Donetsk caused embarrassment.

The US military troops presence in the NATO base in Javorov (near the border with Poland) is a source of discord with Russia. Here, they are ongoing training of almost 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers from April.

The constant anti-Russian releases from the Ukrainian President and Prime Minister Poroshenko Yatseniuk also show how far is the solution to this crisis. On one side, Kiev accuses the Kremlin of having anti-Western aims and would economic and military aid to the United States and the European Union. On the other side, Moscow doesn’t want to give up the Russian-speaking regions (Donetsk, Lugansk and Crimea), which is the reply to Nato military forces and armaments’ developement in the former Soviet countries.

Cold war issues, Putin’s place in Syria and in other geopolitical contexts will be crucial to possible the Russian-speaking regions independence from Ukraine.
Giacomo Pratali

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Giacomo Pratali
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