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Oil politics driving Libya closer to failure

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New tensions between Libya’s UN.backed government and the powerful NOC (Libyan National Oil Corporation), threatening recent economical recovery of oil sector. On Monday, NOC Chairman Mustafa Sanalla announced that the country has built its oil production up to 760,000 barrels per day and planned to go ahead with plans to expand production to 1.1 million bpd by August of this year. However, Sanalla, has openly criticised GNA policy toward global economy and Oil production on the country. He underlined that Oil will be the “lifeblood of any successful futur government in Libya”, and recalled that during Khadaffi’s time, 90% of Tripoli’s revenues was found on oil production. NOC had been closer of LNA (Libyan National Army) and general Haftar since few weeks, due to his capacity to maintain a unity in oil production.

Hafter in Abu Dhabi amid rumours of planned meeting with Serraj

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A new Libyan-Libyan dialogue could be in preparation between both parts of Libyan political spectrum, indeed, Hafter flew from Benghazi’s Benina Airport, on 1st May, to Abu Dhabi, and according to speculations, he could meet Faiez Serraj, president of the GNA (Government of National Accord) there. According to a statement from the Libyan National Army General Command media office, the visit is at the invitation of Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, the crown prince of Abu Dhabi and deputy commander of the UAE armed forces. However, there have been constant rumours over the past three or four days of an encounter between him and Serraj having been organised by the Emiratis.

Libya: Military operation launched to target fuel smugglers operating at sea

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The Fuel Crisis Committee, originally established by the Presidency Council’s government of national accord to find solutions to the shortage of fuel in Tripoli, yesterday launched what is being called “Operation Mediterranean Storm” to counter the smuggling of Libya’s subsidised fuel by sea. In cooperation with NOC (Libyan National Oil Corporation) they try to block fuel smuggling by land to Tunisia. However, to preserve the discretion they refute to tell the press of their operations. During an exchange of fire with Libyan Coast-Guard (under GNA force) 4 oil smuggler had been killed.

Government of National Accord at Tripoli asks for a stabilization under the NOC, Haftar (LNA) has deployed 600 men to support the Petroleum Facilities Guard in the Oil Crescent

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The situation in the Oil crescent stay conflictual. A senior official at Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) warned on Monday of a possible declaration of force majeure at the Es Sider and RasLanuf oil terminals, as air strikes continued and rival forces mobilised fighters in the area. Due to air strikes committed by LNA (Libyan National Army)  a large part of workers have left the industry. The effective control of the exploitation isn’t so clear. Oil is no longer being pumped to Es Sider, forcing Waha Oil Co to halt production and also affecting output by Harouge Oil Operations. In one hand the GNA (Government of National Accord) at Tripoli asks for a stabilization under the NOC, in an other hang General Haftar (LNA) has deployed in emergency 600 men to support the Petroleum Facilities Guard in the Oil Crescent. So, the situation is still not stabilize and the production decrease could have an important impact on Libyan’s economy, and maybe a global rise of oil’s price, so consequences at the international level.

Al-Sweihli arrives in Qatar for more support to GNA

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The Head of the High Council of State (HCS) Abdelrahamn Al-Sweihli, has arrived in Qatar today on a formal visit aiming at receiving more support for the UN-brokered Government of National Accord (GNA). This diplomatic operation is looking to create international sustains to the GNA after recent troubles due to Oil crescent crisis, and the “crisis” inside Libya. Indeed, after his sustain for BDB (BengazhiDefence Brigade), GNA has lost the the faith from large part of East Libya’s population, which has reached LNA (Libyan National Army) supports and the HoR (House of Representatives). So by this way, GNA is trying to recuperate an international support to maintain his partial power on the country.

Egypt-allied Haftar met Al-Sarraj in Cairo, as part of initiatives aimed at resolving Libya's crisis

A military leadership will never take hold of Libya” Belhaj told Middle East Eye. “Haftar has no chance at ruling this country at all and the coming days will attest to this”.Belhaj, who heads the al-Watan Party, is based in Tripoli where the UN-brokered Government of National Accord (GNA) has held power since December 2015. But the GNA’s authority faces huge challenges. Egypt-allied Haftar and the head of the Presidential Council of the GNA, Fayez Al-Sarraj, met in Cairo earlier this week as part of a series of Tunisian-Algerian-Egyptian initiatives aimed at resolving Libya’s crisis. Although Sarraj and Haftar refused to meet face-to-face, they agreed to honor a plan to create a joint committee to negotiate reconciliation and elections by February 2018, despite lingering tensions. The discussions revolved around forming a mini-government that would have a unified military council headed by Haftar in cooperation with military officers from all across Libya. The initiative reportedly gathered support from Algeria, Tunisia and Egypt, three countries that have over the past months been involved in mediation efforts focused on launching a Libya-Libya dialogue for national reconciliation. Despite the combined pressure from Algeria, Tunisia and Egypt to resume peace talks, the political process is unlikely to move forward in the foreseeable future because on the one hand Haftar is convinced he doesn’t need a deal and the other side is very fragmented.

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