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Isolating Russia always leads to severe consequences for Europe, according to Russian Foreign Minister

BreakingNews @en/Politics di

Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, during a conference at the Russian-German form dubbed  “ The Postdam Meeting” , asserted that efforts to isolate Moscow have repeatedly resulted in sever consequence for Europe. According to the Minister, in the modern interconnected world it is impossible to create separate security islands. He added that “ history has repeatedly proved that the attempts to isolate Russia always lead to sever consequence for the entire continent”. Regarding to Russian-German relation, Lavrov  affirmed that the development of relations between Russian Federation and Germany is an important factor in maintaining Europe’s security and stability. Russian Foreign Minister also said that Moscow is ready to discuss various initiatives, proposals and address the existing issues in a constructive way.

Five people linked to IS arrested in Germany

BreakingNews @en/Defence di

Five people linked to the so-called Islamic State (IS) group have been arrested in co-ordinated raids in Germany, including a senior Islamist figure, reports say. Flats were raided in northern and western Germany and a mosque was searched near Hanover. Among those arrested was an Iraqi who goes by the alias Abu Walaa, or “the preacher without a face”. Germany’s NDR TV has identified him as Ahmad Abdelazziz A. The raids came as a result of information from a 22-year-old jihadist who spent several months with IS in Syria before fleeing to Turkey, it said. Before returning to Germany in late September, the man, named Anil O, gave an interview in which he referred to Abu Walaa as “IS’s number one in Germany”.

Germany is ready to contribute to the economic development of KSA

BreakingNews @en/Innovation/Middle East - Africa di

German experts will participate in the Internet summit in Jeddah as Germany is interested in being a partner in the Kingdom’s development of Vision 2030, with an exchange of the latest technology and education, said newly arrived German Consul General Holger Ziegeler. He also said that the Kingdom is one of Germany’s strongest partners in the region, not only due to oil, but also other industries that are very important. The Saudi government tries to invest heavily in infrastructure and future services for the population, and German companies are ready to contribute to this economic development. “Saudi Arabia and Germany are not only political partners but active in multilateral fields, partners in the economic field; large and small German companies are serving the Kingdom and economy of Germany,” Ziegeler added.

Migrants: phase 2 of EUNAVFOR MED is started

Defence di

The second phase of EUNAVFOR MED, “Sofia”, started in October. It takes name from a Somali child born during a critic journey in the Mediterranean and rescued by a German ship last August.

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The project aims to stop the trafficking of human beings intercepting smugglers in the sea. The monitoring of international waters, aims to search, control and seize suspicious craft, and it is entrusted to military ships, helicopters and drones. All this, within the framework of the objectives set in July by the European Union to stem the crisis of migrants in the Mediterranean: identification, arrest and destruction of boats and means used by traffickers.

Currently, six European warships are engaged offshore Libya: an Italian one, an English one, a French one, a Spanish one and two German, but later this month three other means should be made available from England, Belgium and Slovenia. Four helicopters, many drones and 1300 military will be added to these.

According to Admiral Enrico Credendino, head of mission, “the order is enforcing law by the use of force, to dislocate traffickers’ business. While the first phase aimed to find the necessary information about transnational criminal network, the second phase provides for the boarding of vessels, their inspection, the reception of migrants, the arrest of traffickers and the destruction of their boats. All this, however, within international waters, 12 nautical miles away from the Libyan coast. We need a United Nations decision and an invitation from Libyan government to operate directly in the territorial waters. The third next phase would allow the temporary landing on the ground for the destruction of smugglers’ structures “.

This last phase, which hasn’t yet received the green light of the EU, would actually be the most effective, since it is in Libyan waters that most of the smugglers operate, but – as the Italian Foreign minister Paolo Gentiloni says – ”UN Security Council can’t authorize this intervention without the express request of Libya “.

14 European countries are participating in EUNAVFOR MED: Italy, UK, Germany, France, Spain, Slovenia, Greece, Luxembourg, Belgium, Finland, Hungary, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Sweden. The costs of military intervention – apart from an annually European contribution of 12 million Euros – are supported by the individual participating countries. Italy has contributed to the mission with a budget of 26 million euro and 1.020 soldiers.
Viviana Passalacqua

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EU, quotas and hotspots: the forced go-ahead

Europe/Policy di

Western countries vote yes to the redistribution of 120,000 refugees arrived in Italy and Greece, which will make more efficient their identification centers by November. Obstructionism from Eastern States. Yes to raid the smugglers within October, too.

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Go-ahead to the plan to share 120,000 refugees, the creation of hotspots by November, the raid against smugglers. Between 22 and 24 September, during the Eu ministers extraordinary meeting
and European Council, European Commission guidelines proposals on immigration were welcomed. As predictalbe, the deployment of Eastern Europe (“Visegrad”), consisting of Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia over Romania, voted against the allocation of refugees.

Indeed, on the distribution of 120,000 refugees arrived in Italy and Greece, it’s necessary the qualifying majority. In return, the two Mediterranean states have to reorganize identification centers, which should be ready by November, as decided by European Council.

The aim is the streamlining for those who do not hold the right of asylum and to make easier the sorting of all those who have the necessary qualifications. It’s a measure of historical value because it deletes the Eu laws of the Treaty of Dublin which allowed to refugee to be located only in the State where he has asked for asylum.

Then, the European Council has said yes to the raid against the smugglers from Libya. This naval operation, active since October 7, is included among EUNAVFOR second phase and provides the boarding, the search and the seizure of boats.

Small step forward in relations with international organizations and neighboring countries, too. The EU has prepared a rescue plan of 1 billion euro in favor of the UN agencies for refugees. While, about trust funds, Europe has asked Member States for greater effort, given that those funds for countries in crisis, as Syria and Iraq, are not enough.

These choices are positively welcomed by a part of Europe. From the Eu institutions, until Italy, France and Germany. Indeed, Chancellor Angela Merkel has talked about a “decisive step forward”.

Statements which was followed by certainly not conciliatory replication of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has shouted with “moralism imperialist”. These words highlight climate among Eastern Europe leaders. As in the case of Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who, representing the Visegrad Group, has announced a lawsuit against allocation of refugees regulations.

But Hungarian behavior is even more underlining this rift between West and East. After the anti-immigration laws and the building of the wall on the border with Serbia, the government has announced its intention to raise additional barrier on the border with Croatia. News that, adding to the thousands of refugees arrived in Serbia, are bringing ancient grievances between Belgrade and Zagreb to light.

On migration policies, as already demonstrated on the economic front, Europe is traveling at double speed. In this case, the gap between West and East is rooted in the modern and contemporary European history. More than Communism, the Eastern States, as evidenced by more international sources, are opposed to foreign people because their real independence has recently been achieved and spilled blood for their homeland is still present. This gap between the two areas of the European Union underlines how a real continental unity is still far.
Giacomo Pratali

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Ukraine crisis: a crucial autumn

Europe di

The next UN and European summits will be crucial for Ukrainian context and for relationship between Washington and Moscow.

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It’s standby in Ukrainian civil war. In September, the ceasefire between army and pro-Russian fighters has stood. While Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is visiting Kiev, where he has met President Petro Poroshenko, he has confirmed that “Russia is continuing to arm the separatists despite the truce”. However the mood looks relaxed because all are waiting the next summit of 2 October, when leaders of Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia will meet after Minsk2 of the last February.

And, with the General Assembly of United Nations on 24-30 September, one realizes the this autumn could be decisive for Ukrainian context, as well as other geopolitical contexts. Financial and systemic crisis have pushed the Ukrainian government to accelerate, in late August, the constitutional reforms which aim to give more autonomy to Donbass, in line with Minsk2, and to sign an agreement to the debt restructuring with creditors.

On the other hand, there is Russia, which has hardly been hit by oil prices collapse and, as a consequence, by more than 20% fall of Ruble value over the past four months. In this context, economic sanctions by United States and European Union are not the main cause of Russian financial crisis, but nevertheless important factors, especially in view of energy development.

Indeed, while the Kremlin is getting Europe number concerning gas supply, economical penalties are preventing oil and gas development projects in the Arctic. Proposal which the Russian economy needs to maintain its high level of current production.

Therefore, the Ukrainian crisis could be influenced by meetings of 24-30 September and 2 October. In the first one, it will be important the summit between the US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov, where they’ll talk about Russian military operation in Syria against Islamic State. In the second one, the summit with Vladimir Putin Angela Merkel and Francoise Hollande will be helpful to soften Germany and France. In both cases, the purpose is only one: the reduction of economic sanctions against Russia from the years 2016/17.

However, missteps on both sides are following. On the Ukrainian front, there is involvement increased of fighters in the far-right paramilitary brigades that fought alongside army. Besides National Security Council has drawn up a new blacklist where 34 foreign journalists, including 3 of the BBC, have been banned, over the former Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, who has taken part in visit to Crimea together with Putin.

On the Russian front, the Kremlin has been denied by an article, accidentally published (later removed) by Delovaia Zhizn and immediately recall by Forbes, in which was revealed the number of Russian soldiers died in Ukraine: 2000. But Moscow has always repudiated direct involvement.

So, the next UN and European summits, and the accentuation of the geopolitical crises in Syria and Libya, may induce the parties to reach a solution that will bring not only the end of the civil war in Ukraine, but the “warming” of the cold relations between the US and Russia.
Giacomo Pratali

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Libya: action plan is ready

BreakingNews @en/Europe/Middle East - Africa di

The governments of Italy, Germany, Britain, France, Spain and the United States have appealed against Isis attacks in Sirte. Waiting for Tripoli choice, new action plan, led by Italy and under the aegis of Un aegis, has come to light: infrastructure protection and building, UN peacekeepers, training of army.

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Over 200 dead and at least 500 injured as a result of the clashes last week in Sirte. ISIS militants have left behind a trail of blood and horror. Crimes, like the crucifixion of 12 Salafist militants or 22 hospital patients died as a result of a fire set by jihadists, which branded as “genocide” by Tobruk government.

“We are deeply concerned by reports that speak of indiscriminate shelling of densely populated districts of the city and acts of violence in order to terrorize the people – governments of Italy, Germany, Britain, France, Spain and the United States in a unique statement said – . We appeal to all factions Libyan who want a unified country in peace and to join forces to combat the threat posed by transnational terrorist groups that exploit Libya for their own purposes, “.

The need for national unity government, called by the International Community, is extremely topical. The United Nations eagerly awaiting the decision of Tripoli, after agreement between the other factions. There is a plan to be implemented to halt the advance of the Isis in Libya.

There are rumors of a military intervention led by Italy and under the aegis of United Nations since a few months. An action plan already drawn up by Italian Foreign Ministry Paolo Gentiloni, to which ambassador Bernardino Leon is working hard, especially after the capture of Sirte, the massacres and the migration emergency.

As revealed in the last hour, this action plan concerns next stage after national unity government constitution. First, the executive should make an official request for international aid. So, it could lead to the financial and military support to stabilize Libya and fight the Islamic State.

As well as subsidies for infrastructures like roads and airports, and security of oil and gas installations, the topic would be Un peacekeepers intervention and the training of Libyan army.

Institutional, political and economical stabilization of Libya are necessary for immigration drop to Italy and Greece and defeat of Isis, as explained by Italian Minister of Foreign Affairs Gentiloni: “Agreement for a national government Libya, with International Community support, remains the only possibility to fight extremist violence and the deterioration of the humanitarian and economical situation in the country. “Tripoli must hurry. Time goes faster.

Giacomo Pratali

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Iran nuclear deal: pros and cons

Americas/Europe/Middle East - Africa di

After 16 days of negotiations, yesterday the US, EU, Russia, Great Britain and China, and Iran reached historical deal on the nuclear program in Vienna. A pact that works for reduction of he production of uranium in Teheran for the next 10 years. And, at the same time, it stops sanctions and trade sanctions.

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Although this is the formal end to decades of conflict with the West, especially during the Presidency of George W. Bush, the Israel’s contrary reaction and the contemporart and inconsistent alliance between Washington and Sunni’s countries, like Saudi Arabia, could be a warning for the International Community.

Inspired by the cartel the previous April 3, the agreement includes four key points. The cut of 98% of the stocks of enriched uranium. The use of centrifuges reduced to two-thirds. The possibility, not automatic,of Alea inspections on Iran’s nuclear facilities, after approval of the court arbitrary composed by the same countries that have signed the agreement. The gradual reduction of the arms embargo within the next five years. The UN resolution is expected next week, when it meets the Security Council.

The heart of the matter between the US and Iran is mainly the use of enriched uranium for civilian and not military. But also there’s the will to create a diplomat axiswith the biggest Shiite state in the Middle East, able to support the Assad regime in Syria or Hezbollah in Lebanon and decisive in the reconquest of the north-western territories in Iraq, now under the Caliphate.

Additionally, beyond this agreement, there’s the oil question. Iran is the fourth largest producer in the world and, with the end of the embargo, will increase its production. The effect could be the oil drum’s fall in price on the International Markets. Moreover, until the seventies, Europe was the first foreign market for Teheran.

US President Obama said: “No deal means a greater chance of more war in the Middle East. America negotiated from a position of strength and principle and stopped the spread of nuclear weapons. The comprehensive, long-term deal, demonstrated that American diplomacy can bring meaningful change”. And warned Congress he would veto any legislation that prevented its successful implementation.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani talks about “historic deal which opened a new chapter in Iran’s relations with the world”. Eu High Representative Mogherini thinks that the deal is ‘a sign of hope for the entire world’. While is a “sigh of relief for the entire world” in Russian President Putin’s opinion.
The chorus, however, was not unanimous at all the International Community. Predictably, Israel’s response was not long in coming: “The agreement is a historical mistake. “The world is a much more dangerous place today than it was yesterday. The leading international powers have bet our collective future on a deal with the foremost sponsor of international terrorism. “In the coming decade, the deal will reward Iran, the terrorist regime in Tehran, with hundreds of billions of dollars. This cash bonanza will fuel Iran’s terrorism worldwide, its aggression in the region and its efforts to destroy Israel, which are ongoing”. Whereas an official of the government of Saudi Arabia denounced the possibility that Iran could “devastate the Middle East”.

The contradictions within the deal, as the contemporary US alliance with Saudi coalition in Yemen against Houtii (Shiite’s faction supported by Tehran), could bring a long-term strategy. The chance given by the United States and its allies to Iran is directed to the Iranian civil society. The opening to the outside could bring the Shiites and the Sunnis to talks again. This could be an effective weapon against the expansionism of the Islamic State.

Not only abroad. Much of the criticism have come from the United States’s press. Bret Stephen (Wall Street Journal) said that “the agreement will be disastrous” and “unlikely Iran’s foreign policy will change”. Indeed, the deal could backfire on Washington.

 

Giacomo Pratali

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