GEOPOLITICA DEL MONDO MODERNO

Category archive

Asia @en - page 9

Myanmar: finally the first elected president

Asia @en di

For Myanmar’s finally the turning point. After 56 years of military rule, in the country of Southeast Asia took office a democratically elected government, thanks to the victory of the National League of Democracy (NLD) in the last November consultations.

[subscriptionform]
[level-european-affairs]

The first civilian president of the new course is called Htin Kyaw. Initially indicated by the Western media as the simple driver of Aung San Suu Kyi, Kyaw has always been, in fact, the closest collaborator of the NLD leader and has accepted the role of prime minister only in consequence of the constitutional ban that prevents people married into a foreign national to hold the office of prime minister.

Suu Kyi, Nobel Peace Prize and a symbol of the struggle for democracy against the military junta, was married until 1999 with the Briton Michael Aris, with whom she had two children with dual citizenship. The law therefore prevents her from formally assume the powers and responsibilities of the presidency, but the ” Iron Orchid “, as she was renamed during the years of militancy and imprisonment, has already made clear that she intends to govern through the figure of his loyal collaborator . It therefore constitutes a sort of indirect premiership.

Htin Kyak, 69, has vowed loyalty, with its ministers and two vice-presidents, to the people of Myanmar, in front of the Parliament, in a plenary meeting, in the capital Nay Pyi Taw. In the list of new members of the government stands the name of Aung San Suu Kyi, who will deal directly with foreign affairs, education, energy and the Bureau. Just to clarify that all important decisions will pass anyway from his desk.

Three other key ministries, such as defense, interior affairs and border affairs, will remain under the control of the military, which also nominates a quarter of members of parliament and keep the veto power on constitutional reforms. Those inevitable limitations, to ensure a peaceful change of power, was agreed in talks between Aung San Suu Kyi and former President Thein Sein, in power for five years and expression of the military junta.

About San Suu Kyi, symbol of the country, we know practically everything. But who is the new president Kyaw? He and the leader of the NLD have attended high school together and have been since then tied by a strong friendship. He studied computer science in the United Kingdom and Japan, and has always maintained a low profile, being appreciated, once back at home, for honesty and loyalty to the cause of democracy. During the fifteen long years of detention, he was among the few to have access to the prison house of Suu Kyi and, after the liberation, was often seen by his side, even in the guise of a driver. He’s married to the daughter of one of the founders of the National League of Democracy, also Member of the National Parliament, and in the past was involved in the management of the Daw Khin Kyi Foundation, a charity whose name is dedicated to the late mother of the Nobel Prize.

In his inaugural speech, the new President Kyaw has referred to the complex challenges facing the country, first of all the need for a cease-fire to end, as soon as possible, to armed conflicts that for decades opposed the central power to several ethnic minorities. Kyaw also stated that the new government plans to introduce constitutional changes, to make the fundamental law of the country in line with modern democratic principles.

This last commitment is certainly the most difficult to achieve because the army, to which the current constitution guarantees vast powers, does not appear willing to permit other democratic changes. But just five years ago, Myanmar was forced to face severe economic sanctions, because it was considered by the international community as an obscurantist military regime, with thousands of political prisoners and the total absence of freedom of expression.

Many things have improved since then, largely through the efforts of Aung San Suu Kyi and her movement. The future, today, appears full of promise to which it is permissible to believe.

 

Luca Marchesini

[/level-european-affairs]

Iran’s economic offensive

Asia @en/Energy di

With the enforcement of the nuclear deal in January, several economic sanctions -which have wreaked havoc on Iran’s economy for years- has been lifted, thus paving the way for its re-integration into the international economic competition. However, as the Expediency Council points out, the hostility of many countries is still alive, along with their desire to curb the country’s economic recovery. Likewise, some countries, for example some European partners, will have to gradually win back Iran’s trust towards them. In other words, Tehran bets again on the well-known economy of resistance strategy, which has taught the country to maximize the use of national resources, while minimizing vulnerability and damage caused by sanctions. This policy, indeed, allowed the Iranian economy to survive decades of isolation, still being (in terms of GDP) the second of the Middle East and the seventh in Asia.

[subscriptionform]
[level-european-affairs]

The openness towards foreign countries will be carefully planned: the aim is to strengthen key economic areas, while continuing to exploit the internal resources, which have proved to be productive, such as industrial infrastructure and the petrochemical industry. Hence, priority is given to investment from abroad, increasing export of non-oil products and to address the problem of foreign exchange reserves still frozen by sanctions. At a time when international attention is focused on fighting ISIS, Tehran is launching its economic “offensive”, paving the way for trade agreements especially with Asian and African countries.

Concerning import-export, Iran and Russia are considering the creation of a free trade zone, as Russian Energy Minister Alexsandr Novak recently announced. The first draft of the project sets metal and chemical products as the main objects of Russian exports to Iran; in return, Iran would provide fruit and vegetables up to one billion dollars, a significant increase compared to the current trade ($194 million).

Important achievements also with Vietnam. The two countries aim to increase their trade value from 350 million to 2 billion over the next five years, with investment projects in several sectors, i.e. agriculture, tourism, energy  and technological innovations. In order to foster cooperation, their central banks have also signed a Memorandum of Understanding. Ongoing negotiations also with Turkey, Côte d’ Ivoire and other African countries, which are willing to enhance economic relations with the Islamic Republic. Iran’s achievements in energy, healthcare, technology and infrastructure make it an ideal partner to supply the needs of the African continent.

Two major projects are on the table in energy sector. The first concerns the construction of an undersea gas pipeline linking Iran to India: 1400 kilometers of infrastructure that will allow to bypass Pakistani exclusive economic zone, bringing up to 31.5 million cubic meters of gas per day in India. A big investment, about $ 4.5 billion, which confirms –and rewards- the good relations that the nations preserved even during the sanctions regime. The second new project is a scientific and technological cooperation between the Elettra Synchrotron of Trieste (Italy) and the Institute for Research in Fundamental Sciences in Tehran. Key points are the training of Iran’s scientific and technical personnel and the joint design of a new line of light, to be used both in the study of chemical and biological phenomena, and in industrial sectors.

Pakistan marks an important turning point in banking sector. As some sanctions are still in force, payment in dollars for products imported from Iran is not yet possible. Hence, Pakistani businessmen decided to open letters of credit (LCs) in euro rather than in the US currency. In this way, the American banks will be no longer the intermediate banks, but the European ones will clear the LCs.

To conclude, it seems that Iran has a clear economic strategy in mind. On the one hand, it focuses on internal resources, such as oil – Iran will begin to cooperate with other producing countries about freezing production only when the its output will reach the quota of 4 million barrels a day. On the other, it aims to strengthening key economic sectors, by intensifying relations with medium and big Asian powers, thus favoring them rather than Middle Eastern and Western countries, a clear sign that the distrust towards those who most benefited from sanctions is far from over.

 

Paola Fratantoni

[/level-european-affairs]

 

North Korea tests a new ballistic missile

Asia @en di

North Korea has taken another step towards one of its priority objectives: to create an inter-continental missile that is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead and hit accurately the enemy, even thousands of kilometers away.

[subscriptionform]
[level-european-affairs]

In the last hours in fact, the state media have spread the news that North Korea has successfully tested a new solid-fuel engine that can significantly increase the power of its missile arsenal. The test is part of a larger project, aimed at developing a long-range ballistic missile (ICBM, InterContinental Ballistic Missile), which appears to progress rapidly despite UN sanctions and the numerous warnings issued by South Korea.

After the recent nuclear tests in January, North Korea, therefore, continues to move recklessly on the ridge that divides the bellicose rhetoric against the enemies of the South and the United States and the actual developments in terms of military technology.

The national news agency, KCNA, has proudly hailed the success of the new test, which “has  helped boost the power of ballistic rockets,” adding that North Korean engineers will soon be able to test new weapons “capable of striking mercilessly hostile forces “.

Even President Kim Yong-Un attended the demonstration launch, celebrating immediately its success. “This is a historic and memorable day,” he said in front of the microphones and notebooks of regime’s information.

The test actually strengthens the position of Pyongyang after that last week, according to reports by local media, launch and re-entry into the atmosphere of a ballistic missile, that could sooner or later be equipped to carry a miniaturized nuclear warhead, have been tested successfully.

The military tests, once again, was alternated by the rhetoric of provocation. On Wednesday the North has threatened to strike the presidential office of the South with a battery of large caliber rockets, adding that special army units are ready to go into action. South Korean President Park Geun-hye has decided to answer to the attempt at intimidation, ordering to increase the alert level and asking the army to be ready to respond to the “reckless provocations” by Pyongyang.

The tension on the Korean Peninsula therefore backs to rise dangerously, in a time when the Northern regime feels caught between the new sanctions imposed by the UN after the last nuclear tests, and joint military drills that the South and the US are conducting, as every year, at a short distance.

Drills that obviously alarmed Pyongyang, which considers them as “nuclear war moves” to which it must respond decisively.

Despite progress in terms of solid fuel engines, experts believe that North Korea will not be able, for many years, to threaten the United States with ICBMs. Probably part of the verbal and propagandistic escalation of Pyongyang can be connected to internal reasons. Soon it should be held the first congress of the Workers Party of North Korea after 35 years and the current leadership, represented by President Kim Yong-Un, the last of the Kim’s dynasty, needs to bring to the table some important success on the military field to reassert its legitimacy as supreme leader.

 

Luca Marchesini

[/level-european-affairs]

The strategic interests of China and the US collide

Over the past decade China has grown enormously, redefining its role in economic and geopolitical level and assuming the characteristics of a true global power. Despite the great changes and the fast pace that has marked them, the Beijing strategic imperatives continue to be the same, at least in part.

On top of the list is still the maintenance of internal unity in regions where prevails the Han ethnic group, located mainly along the two major rivers, the Yellow and the Yangtze. These territories are home to the bulk of China’s population and the main sectors of industry and national agriculture. Keeping the unity in this macro-areas is vital to ensure the cohesion of the Asian giant and to consolidate the role of the Communist Party of China as the hegemonic force. The goal is not easy, though. Uniformity is only theoretical, since the majority ethnic group in the country differs internally through cultural, social and economic articulations that complicate the search for a balance. The economic slowdown also contributes to make the picture even more complex.

Another key challenge concerns the control of the buffer regions, those more remote, inhabited in the past by nomadic populations, and characterized, for a long time, from poorly defined borders. Over the centuries the China of the Han fought with its neighbors, finally being able to integrate many peripheral regions, from Manchuria to Mongolia, passing through Xinjiang, Tibet and Yunnan. Today these areas are of strategic importance to Beijing and help make the country the power that is, but pose multiple challenges for the central government in terms of cohesion and ethnic policies.

The third link in the chain of priorities refers to the protection of the coasts, which cover about 18,000 kilometers from Vietnam to North Korea. For much of its history China has relied heavily on the inner dimensions and land trade routes to grab the necessary resources, paying little attention to the seas. For a long time, then, China did not want to have a powerful naval force, focusing on the defense of the coast from the ground and developing alternative navigation systems, through a complex network of internal channels. Today the situation has changed considerably, and China is strengthening its military fleet. In these waters, however, the distance with the American adversary is still considerable and defense policies still focus on strengthening coastal defenses.

Alongside these three historical imperatives, the economic growth of the past decade has revealed a fourth strategic objective: the defense of trade routes, resources and markets from foreign interference. Today China imports much as exports, is no longer independent as before. The foreign trade has become vital, as well as external investment to acquire technology and know-how. The affirmation of this new paradigm sought greater military, financial and policy presence internationally and has led inevitably to a more direct confrontation with the US and its strategic interests.

The US, on the external level, consider as vital the control of the oceans and the containment of emerging powers, China in the first place. Beijing, for its part, believes that its economic stability may be jeopardized by the American dominance on the seas and trade routes and is strengthening the fleet to increase the weight of his presence.

The strategic interests of the two powers collide and from the outcome of the battle will depend the future geopolitical order. The main game now is in the South China Sea where China claims ownership of some archipelagos to extend its control over the area and limit US hegemony on the southern Asia seas. The US sees this expansionist policy as a threat to freedom of navigation and as a signal of excessive aggression on the part of a rising power, more and more difficult to contain. Both countries have their own reasons and both are pushed by the imperative defense of their strategic interests.

The opposition has now extended also to the field of international finance. Thanks to the dollar power and to the influence that this guarantees in international markets, the US has always been able to dictate the rules of the international economy, relegating China to a secondary role. To break the system, China is pushing for the creation of an alternative trading and international finances system and shall seek to increase its role in the World Bank and other international financial institutions.

Ultimately, the crucial interests of China and the United States are entering in conflict at different levels, both militarily and economically, and none of the contenders can simply wait for the other making his moves. The risk of waiting would be likely to exceed the cost of action. The outcome of the battle is not yet predictable and we do not know how the current strategies will evolve. What is certain is that one of the contenders, if not both, will have to give up part of its strategic objectives.

 

Luca Marchesini

China’s fight against corruption passes through media control

Asia @en di

In China corruption is a widespread problem, despite the draconian penalties that affect the officials recognized guilty of illegal conduct. To limit its spread, the government, at the impulse of President Xi Jinping, is set to launch a new round of anti-corruption program initiated three years ago, intensifying efforts with respect to 2015. In fact, the Central Commission for Disciplinary Inspection (CCDI) plans to conduct over 100 inspections by the end of the year.

[subscriptionform]
[level-european-affairs]

The anti-corruption campaign announced by Xi Jinping was widely publicized on the national media. On 19th February, the Chinese leader has spread its message through the country’s three major news agencies: Xinhua, People’s Daily and CCTV. Simultaneously, Xi wanted to launch a warning to the world of information, stating that the national media must demonstrate absolute dedication and loyalty to the party and thus, indirectly, to the premier itself. The answer was not long in coming, in the sign of a willing submission. The home page of the three agencies were quickly colonized by a profusion of praise and support claims in favor of the party and its leadership, in view of the campaign launch.

According to analysts, Xi Jinping’s initiative does not aim simply to tighten anti-corruption controls, but responds to a total change of political agenda towards the media. The President wants to operate a crackdown on China’s information world, to better control the news dissemination. Wang Qishan, a member of the Politburo Standing Committee and head of the Central Commission for Disciplinary Inspection, contributed to corroborate this hypothesis. During the campaign presentation conference, Wang announced that the Ministry of Propaganda and the State Administration for printing, publishing, radio, film and television (which applies censorship directives) will be put under depth scrutiny. A further warning, not too veiled.

The anti-corruption operation, however, will cover all of the state structure focal points and will affect, according to the announcements, 36 different public bodies spread across all areas of expertise. From justice to agriculture, from the religious affairs to tourism, no one can be considered safe from the upcoming government inspectors investigations. Four provincial governments also will be sieved.

Many of the Commission’s targets are related to the management and implementation of industrial policies. The party wants to contribute thereby to the achievement of economic goals set for 2016, at national level, reducing the levels of over-production and encouraging the merger of major state industries. These changes, given its scale, could generate discontent and opposition within the concerned state agencies. And then, the role of the media in this story is clarified. Tighter control on information would ensure a favorable narrative of events and, therefore, a broader base of support for the transformation in agenda.

 

Luca Marchesini

[/level-european-affairs]

New people inserted in the anti-North Korea “Black list”

 

Today, the Council of the European Union – which, we remember is the Union’s executive body – has added 16 persons and 12 entities to its “black list” of individuals and companies affected by restrictive measures taken by europe against the conduct of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

[subscriptionform]
[level-european-affairs]

The decision reflects the new requirements imposed by the 2270 resolution of the United Nations Security Council adopted on the 2nd March 2016 in response to the test launches of nuclear rockets by North Korea, which took place on January 6 and 7 February.
The formal proceedings of this diplomatic initiative will be published in the EU Official Journal tomorrow. The EU’s restrictive measures against North Korea have been introduced for the first time on 22 December 2006. Current measures comply with all the resolutions of the UN Security Council adopted after the launches and nuclear tests performed by North Korea, using ballistic missile technology, and also include additional measures taken by the EU autonomously. Such decision is to hit the North Koreans launch program policies.

 

 

The most important measures include import and export bans for weapons, and every object or technology that could contribute to such activities. Both the UN and the EU, independently, have also imposed restrictive measures for financial and commercial activities and transport services.

With this initiative, today, the European Union has strengthened its latest measures, which were decided on 22 April 2013, implementing the UN Security Council Resolution. 2094.

 

Domenico Martinelli

[/level-european-affairs]

 

China: yes to naval base in the Horn of Africa

Asia @en di

Not only civil infrastructure for China in Africa. As reported on February 25 by Reuter, the Asian giant has begun the construction of a naval base on the coast of Djibouti whose function, officially, it will be to support humanitarian, peacekeeping and escort missions in the area of Eastern Africa. China would become the third country, with France and the United States, to have a naval military base in Djibouti, in the Horn of Africa, in a strategic position from a military point of view and from that of the control of commercial routes. Apart from the gear there, is the overall mechanism that matters. China wants to gradually expand its sphere of influence on the international stage, by setting up a network of civilian and military infrastructure that could support operations on a plan that would soon be called global.

The new base, which should be born in Obock, on the northern coast of Djibouti, will be at a distance of 7700 km from Beijing and will be the first naval installation outside the national borders. The initiative demonstrates how China is gradually wearing the shoes of the great power as its strategic vision is evolving toward a future in which it will exercise its global leadership.

China for many years has been maintaining an international presence in the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Aden and is part of the UN mission against piracy, launched in 2008. Since then, the Chinese warships docked in the ports of Djibouti over 50 times and the new installation would respond, in the first instance, the objective of ensuring a more organized berth and supply point. But China’s interests go far beyond the anti-piracy operations. Today, the new base could serve as the main joint in the chain of logistical support for peacekeeping operations under the UN flag in Africa. Tomorrow, it could become a bridgehead for any Chinese intervention in the continent, in defense of its national strategic interests. Meanwhile, it will strengthen the Chinese influence on the Indian Ocean, allowing Beijing to organize missions of maritime patrol aircraft directly from the African coast.

Over the past few years, China’s activism abroad mainly concerned the creation of civil and commercial infrastructures, on the basis of bilateral cooperation and development agreements. The military component has always existed, but has long remained concealed. Today this approach is changing and Beijing is increasingly determined to publicize the deployment of its fleet beyond the domestic sea, proving less reticence to openly take on an international role, even militarily.

The naval base in Djibouti will not be a simple supply landing, but will offer Chinese navy extensive logistical capabilities. With it, it will increase the Chinese presence on the ground, it will be possible to operate, presumably, a complete maintenance of ships, will be increased the ability to transport and storage ammunition and spare parts, will be built facilities for the crews and infrastructure for the aeronautics.

The Chinese expansion in the Indian Ocean does not depend, of course, only on the future of Djibouti. Chinese ships arrive regularly in many ports scattered between Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Oman, Yemen and Seychelles and, for the foreseeable future, Beijing is considering whether to make new agreements with Kenya, Tanzania and Namibia to further strengthen and differentiate its logistic options. To create integrated logistics hub for the Navy, in these countries, won’t be easy, however, for reasons which are, from time to time, political, of security or related to excessive competition.

Beyond the Horn of Africa and the Indian Ocean, the Beijing’s navy has extended the range of its raids in the last years, visiting the United States and several European countries, Africa and Latin America. The Chinese ships have passed through the Suez Canal, the Panama Canal and have doubled Cape Horn and the Cape of Good Hope, then to go into the Black Sea, the North Sea and the Bering. While the naval mission reached the limits of the navigable waters of the globe, it increases the need for more reliable landings for refueling and logistics. A requirement to become increasingly important in the coming years.

For now, the Chinese navy continues to rely heavily on support ships, to operate supplies on the high seas when needed or to replenish stocks of weapons and other materials. In this field, Chinese investments have increased massively, and  this year the navy has launched two new vessels Type 903A, for refueling at sea. It was also launched the construction of the new Type 901 in Guangzhou shipyards. The ship, once completed, will be capable of transporting 45,000 tons, a value never achieved before.

Compared to the United States, China is still in its first steps towards the realization of a global logistics network for its navy. American supremacy is not only based on the number of ships, but also about the wide availability of friendly ports in which to dock for refueling and maintenance works. China, to continue to grow on the seas and cement his new status as a global power, will have to concentrate its efforts in the strengthening of supply capacity at sea and in the progressive realization of a network of safe moorings.

The sea, for Beijing, is still too large.

 

Luca Marchesini

 

Beijing: more billionaires than New York

Asia @en di

 

It was only a matter of time, in fact. In 2014 we witnessed the overtaking of China on the United States in the challenge of GDP, two years later a new record confirms the change of paradigm in the global economy and the consolidation of the Asian giant as the new leader.

[subscriptionform]
[level-european-affairs]

According to data compiled by Hurun Report, a Chinese publisher specialized in the field of luxury, which annually draws up the list of the super rich of the country, the capital Beijing now has a number of billionaires higher than that claimed by New York. 100 to 95, is the final result, but the measure of change is not given by the five billionaires of difference, rather by the Chinese “rate of growth”. In the last year the exclusive club of billionaires in Beijing has opened its doors to 32 new members, compared with an increase of just 4 elements for  the economic and financial Big Apple élite. In third place, the Moscow of old and new riches, with 66 billionaires registered at the luxury registry.

The crisis in Asian markets, in recent weeks, has burned thousands of billions, but it does not seem, therefore, capable to stop the process of concentration of wealth in a few hands, as happens in every authentic capitalist country. “Despite its own slowdown and falling stock markets — says Rupert Hoogewerf, chief researcher and Chairman of Hurun Report –  China minted more new billionaires than any other country in the world last year, mainly on the back of new listings”.

Although the match between Beijing and New York appear to be particularly symbolic, China had already achieved similar record nationally, last October, as attested by the Hurun Report. According to the new data, just published, the Asian Dragon now offers accommodation and shelter to 568 billionaires, 90 more than last year. To get an idea, just know that the combined wealth of these 568 McDucks amount  to 1400 billion dollars, equal to the Gross Domestic Product of the entire Australia. Of these, 40% have less than forty years, a demographic advantage that may impact on the charts in the coming years. The United States, once again, arrive in second position, with 535 stars and stripes billionaires, two fewer than the previous year. And this is also a fact to think about.

At the level of individual wealth, however, the Chinese captains still don’t occupy the first rows. The richest, in China, is the tycoon Wiang Jianlin, basically unknown outside of national boundaries. Wang is chairman of Dalian Wanda Group, the largest Chinese real estate enterprise, and owns AMC Entertainment Holdings, the largest theater operator in the world. His personal fortune amount to 26 billion, according to Hurun Report, and in the ranking of the wealthiest men on the planet occupies the twenty-first position. Not enough to outclass people like Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg and the financier Warren Buffet.

Again, we imagine, it is only a matter of time before Jianglin and handful of his countrymen overtake US celebrities of wealth. The leading group include Jack Ma, founder of the mega-portal of e-commerce Alibaba and the heads of tech giants such as Tencent, Baidu and Xiaomi, which is preparing to invade Western markets with its economic and technologically advanced smartphones. Good Morning China.

 

Luca Marchesini

[/level-european-affairs]

 

 

Chinese missiles on a disputed island

Asia @en/BreakingNews @en di

 

On 14 February, the images captured by a satellite, showed the presence of new military installations on a small island in the Paracels archipelago in the South China Sea, occupied by China and claimed by its neighbors, particularly Taiwan and Vietnam. The island, once known as Woody on nautical charts, was annexed by Beijing in 1956 under the name of Yongxing.

It is probably two HQ-9 batteries, able to arm eight surface-to-air missiles each, with a range which experts estimate at about 200 kilometers, capable of hitting aircraft, cruise missiles and ballistic. Their deployment further exacerbates the tension along the already troubled waters of the South China Sea, the theater for several years of a territorial dispute on a large scale, with major political, strategic and economic implications, in which all the powers of the region are involved, including Japan, and the United States, determined to defend its freedom of military and commercial shipping in the area and to limit the expansionist ambitions of Beijing.

The revelation, released yesterday by the Taiwanese authorities, has angered the Chinese who, at first, have thundered against the lies of the pro-Western propaganda, and subsequently reaffirmed their right to install weapons of “self-defense” on islands inhabited by Chinese civil and military personnel, “according to international law”.

The major concern for the Americans and their allies in the area, is that Beijing brings forward a unilateral project of militarization in the region, strengthening, officially for defensive purposes, a growing number of islands and neo-artificial islands, made ex- novo by Chinese engineers through massive drainage of the sandy ocean floor, there where once there were only semi-submerged sections of the reef.

The Yongxing island in fact already have an airstrip and, in November 2015, the satellites captured the image of a Chinese military jet landed on the outpost. The missiles deployment, according to experts interviewed by the BBC, may be a warning addressed to Vietnam, which continues to advance their claims on the archipelago, and to United States, after that, in January, an American missile destroyer sailed close to the island’s shores.

For now, Beijing has avoided to deploy military installations on the disputed islands of the Spratly archipelago, far away from the Chinese territorial waters and nestled between Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines, who are claiming themselves its possess. If the escalation would go so far south, Chinese action would be perceived not as a simple provocation but as an explicit act of hostility, with consequences difficult to predict.

The dispute on the South China Sea was also addressed during the summit just concluded in California, between the United States and the ASEAN countries, the organization of the Southeast Asia states. Just yesterday, President Obama, concluding  the meeting, reiterated the US call to stop any further “claim, new construction and militarization”, indirectly referring to Chinese activities in the area. Obama also said the US will continue ” will continue to fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows” adding that the United States will provide their support to allies in the region so that they can do the same. A support that has been explicitly called for by the Vietnamese Prime Minister during the summit. Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung has appealed directly to Obama to ask that the US has ” has a stronger voice and more practical and more efficient” to achieve the interruption of all initiatives aimed at changing the status quo, clearly referring to China and its constructive activities on the Spratly archipelago.

The purpose of the summit was to find new common solutions to counter Beijing’s expansionism in the South China Sea and preserve the right to free navigation, a primary geopolitical interest for the United States in that part of the world. China’s choice to deploy a missile battery on the island of Yongxing in conjunction with the US-ASEAN summit is obviously not random and tends to reiterate Beijing’s intention to dispose as they please of the territories under its control.

For Americans and its allies a military escalation, although on a minor scale, has the flavor of provocation. A US official said to the microphones of CNN that the deployment of the missiles, which occurred during the summit, was a ” further demonstration of China’s attempt to unilaterally change the status quo” in the South China Sea. On the same line  is Japan, that by the mouth of Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga Yoshihide  has branded as unacceptable the initiative of Beijing.

The dispute looks set to exacerbate, especially if China decides to proceed with the creation of military infrastructure on the islands under its control, going further south. Another variable in play concerns the energy and mineral resources that could hide under coral beds. Geological surveys and drilling have not started yet, at least officially, but the discovery of oil or natural gas could further jeopardize the relations between the powers bordering on that slice of ocean.

 

Luca Marchesini

Indonesia, the police on the trail of the terrorist network

Asia @en di

Polisi_officers_lineup

In the aftermath of the Jakarta attacks, claimed by the Islamic State, which left five dead on the ground among  the bombers and civilian casualties (a local citizen and a Canadian), the Indonesian police has been able to identify some of the terrorists that were killed and performed the first arrests, around the capital and in other regions of the country.

The attack started on Thursday morning at 10.40 local time, with a series of six explosions in quick succession, in a commercial area of ​​the Indonesian capital. Two attackers opened fire on customers of a Starbucks coffee shop hit by one of the explosions, while two suicide bombers blew themselves up near a road junction where several policemen were stationating. The police responded quickly surroundig  the area and attacking the jihadists with the help of cars and armored vehicles. The shooting lasted for several hours, until the three terrorists, after being holed up in a movie theater, were killed by the police.

The attack was claimed by ISIS with a statement online. According to local police, the attacks were organized and directed by Bahrun Naim, an Indonesian jihadist fighting with the ISIS in Syria that aims to become the leader of the organization in the Southeast Asia.

General Badrodin Haiti, the national police chief, said that two of the bombers were convicted and jailed in the past for activities linked to radical Islamism and has released the name of one of the two, Afif Sunakim, which had previously granted a sentence of seven years. The head of the Jakarta Police, Inspector General Tito Karnavian, then revealed that in the capital were ongoing counterterrorism operations to capture the members of some cells ready to go into action.

In his claim, ISIS explained that the purpose of the attacks was hit Indonesia for its support to the international coalition fighting Daesh in Syria and Iraq. According to the Indonesian police, the group that organized the attacks is connected with other cells operating in the country, in Java and Sulawesi. Naim, specifically, would be connected to MIT, a jihadist group active Indonesian island of Sulawesi that declares to be ally of the Islamic State. Since 2002, the year of a bloody attack in Bali which killed 202 people, Indonesia has always kept his guard high, arresting a total of over a thousand people in the context of counter-terrorism operations. Some jihadists, however, have been released over the years, and the attacks on Thursday, said the police chief, demonstrate how they can still pose a real danger.

According to the head of the national police Haiti, the last attack represent a quantum leap in the confrontation between security forces and Islamic extremism. The fact that a direct link between ISIS and local groups has emerged is a worrying and and major change. Investigators also believe that the action was organized and funded directlyfrom Syria, through Bahrun Naim.

Even the president of Indonesia Joko Widodo made its voice heard, after the attacks, with a tweet: “There is no place for terrorism on Earth – he wrote – and every citizen in the world” needed to fight it.

Luca Marchesini
0 £0.00
Vai a Inizio
×