GEOPOLITICA DEL MONDO MODERNO

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Giacomo Pratali

Giacomo Pratali has 297 articles published.

Iraq, Mosul: U.S. ready in October

BreakingNews @en/Middle East - Africa di

“Our job is to actually help Iraq to generate the forces and give the necessary support for operations in Mosul and we’ll be ready for that in October,” the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Joe Dunford said alongside of NATO Military Committee in Croatia. So, U.S. military help could very soon happen: Washington should wait for Iraqis official choice.

Not only Iraq. Before of NATO conference, during the summit with Turkish Armed Forces General Hulusi Akar, Dunford’s spokesman told about ISIS: “U.S. recommitted to the close military-to-military and strategic relationship the U.S. has with Turkey.”

On September 9, during the press conference with Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told about Turkey coup attempt: “It was very touching to see the damage, to see the effects of the airstrikes against the Parliament that took place during the attempted coup. To bomb a national Parliament while the parliamentarians are there is an attack on innocent people but it’s also an attack on what of the strongest symbols and institutions in a democratic society. ”

“I would also like to thank Turkey for your contribution to many different NATO operations and activities – he added -. You have contributed to our efforts to fight international terrorism. You do so in Afghanistan and I welcome also that you are stepping up your efforts to fight Daesh and other terrorist organisations because we have to stand together in the fight against international terrorism. ”

Several issues characterized this conference: Syria, Afghanistan, Russia. About Moscow, Stoltenberg wants to meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergej Lavrov: “I think it is important to continue to have a chance for political dialogue open”. Its “interest and willingness to sit down and discuss proposals on risk reduction and transparency,” he announced on September 21.

Giacomo Pratali

Crisi migranti: MOAS promuove #SafeAndLegalRoutes

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Due anni fa, il 30 agosto 2014, MOAS (Migrant Offshore Aid Station) ha effettuato la sua prima operazione di soccorso all’interno del Mediterraneo. Circa 250 tra Siriani e Palestinesi sono salvati in quella circostanza. Nata dopo la tragedia nel Canale di Sicilia dell’ottobre 2013, questa ONG è stata testimone della terribile tragedia umanitaria che si sta tuttora consumando alle porte d’Europa. In occasione di questo anniversario, MOAS promuove la campagna #SafeAndLegalRoutes: “Alla vigilia di due summits decisivi a Settembre, in cui i leader mondiali si incontreranno per trovare soluzioni definitive alle sfide della migrazione globale, MOAS fa appello a tutti i rappresentanti a pensare non in termini di numeri, ma piuttosto di focalizzarsi sulla personale, tangibile esperienza che MOAS vive quotidianamente”.
Circa 25mila sono state le persone messe in salvo da MOAS in questo lasso di tempo: “Mentre l’opinione pubblica mondiale – si legge nel comunicato di MOAS – rischia di diventare sempre più assuefatta dinnanzi alle stragi che si consumano nel Mediterraneo, MOAS fa appello alla comunità internazionale affinchè non permetta che le frequenti tragedie al largo delle nostre coste continuino ad essere una normalità. MOAS, la prima ONG di ricerca e soccorso del suo genere nel Mediterraneo, è un’organizzazione umanitaria fondata per rispondere alle conseguenze terribili dello storico flusso migratorio in mare. Dopo due anni, stiamo ancora fronteggiando le stesse conseguenze e soluzioni sostenibili devono ancora essere trovate”.

Non solo. Un viaggio, quello dei rifugiati verso l’Europa, segnato da teatri di guerra e situazioni geopolitiche instabili: “Quel che è peggio, controlli più rigidi alle frontiere, deterioramento delle condizioni nei paesi di transito, come la Libia, la Turchia e la Grecia, e la mancanza di alternative, stanno costringendo i richiedenti asilo ad intraprendere percorsi sempre più pericolosi, sia per mare che per terra”.

Un’emergenza, dunque, che non ancora non accenna a placarsi. E che ha visto, in questi mesi estivi, un aumento esponenziale degli sbarchi sulle coste italiane e greche. Come le 6500 persone messe in salvo proprio da MOAS il 29 agosto: l’ennesima mancata tragedia che deve fare riflettere l’Europa.

 

Photo Credit: ©MOAS.eu/jason florio 2016 all rights reserved

Migrant crisis: MOAS for #SafeAndLegalRoutes

BreakingNews @en di

Two years ago, August 30, 2014, MOAS (Offshore Migrant Aid Station) has conducted its first relief operation in the Mediterranean, when about 250 Syrians and Palestinians were rescued. Established after humanitarian disaster in the Strait of Sicily on October 2013, this NGO has been witness to the terrible humanitarian tragedy that is still ongoing. Now, MOAS promotes the campaign #SafeAndLegalRoutes which “are the only conceivable way forward has been cemented by our experiences on the maritime crossings. We call – said MOAS statement – , therefore, on the international community not to allow this unnecessary loss of life to become ‘the new normal’ when it is so clearly avoidable.MOAS was founded as a disaster relief organisation, the first private search and rescue NGO of its kind in the Mediterranean, designed to mitigate the deadly consequences of the migration crisis. “

MOAS rescued about 25,000 people in the last two years: The horrors MOAS has been witness to only serve to reinforce our belief that no one deserves to die at sea. Today, with two years’ experience on the frontlines of this, the most devastating humanitarian catastrophe of our generation, MOAS calls for the creation of safe and legal alternatives to the deadly sea crossing, to ensure that those seeking to pursue their right to asylum are able to do so without risking their lives”.

This emergency has not already ended as demonstrated by 6,500 people saved on August 29 by MOAS.

 

Photo Credit: ©MOAS.eu/jason florio 2016 all rights reserved

Boko Haram: UN and WFP numbers about humanitarian crisis

“Abubakar Shekau fatally wounded”, Nigerian army announced on Twitter on August 23. Boko Haram presence in Nigeria decreased in the past months, but it’s not still defeated.

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Since 2009 it involved not only Borno State in Nigeria, but also Cameroon (109 people are waiting for execution in the last hours), Chad and Niger.

As reported by United Nations and World Food Programs, the humanitarian situation is very tragic:

– 1,4 million children in Nigeria are displaced in Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad and Niger;
– An estimated 475,000 children across Lake Chad are expected to suffer from severe acute malnutrition this year, up from 175,000 at the beginning of the year;
– 20,000 children was separated from their family;
– now 4,5 million people need food;
– it is estimated that at least 65,000 people in newly liberated but still inaccessible areas in Borno and Yobe are facing “famine-like” conditions;
– WFP requires $52 million to continue providing life-saving assistance until the end of the year in north-eastern Nigeria.
Giacomo Pratali

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Libya: U.S. airstrikes and Haftar issue

Defence/Middle East - Africa di

As requested by Government of National Accord, the U.S. intensified its fight in Libya launching airstrikes in Sirte, ISIS stronghold in Libya. American help is necessary to accelerate GNA advance: “These actions and those we have taken previously will help deny ISIL a safe haven in Libya from which it could attack the United States and our allies,” the Pentagon statement said.

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Previously, Western support was by intelligence and military training, as proved by presence of special forces in Libya since at least March 2016. Now, despite GNA advance in Gulf of Sirt (ISIS troops decreased from 6,000 to 1,000, as reported by Pentagon), American help is necessary to increase its influence in this area. Indeed, if the U.S. (and Italy, through a logistic support) wants to defeat Islamic State because of the war on terrorism, Serraj has at least two reasons: the first one is Libyan security and support to all factions which are fighting against Daesh; the second one concerns Serraj’s connection with Haftar and HoR for GNA legitimacy.

Inevitably, Haftar reaction after the U.S. intervention was not positive. His troops, supporting by Egypt and France (three French soldiers were killed in Libya close to Benghazi), advanced against ISIS positions in past months, especially when GNA was freshly formed. But the U.S. and its allies wants an unified Libya to defeat Daesh and stop migration flows.

If France has an ambivalent position, Italy is the first U.S. ally in the Libyan context. Now, Rome is ready to consider positively a request to use airbases and national airspace, and support the operation, if it is believed that it would lead to a more rapid and effective conclusion of the ongoing action,” Defence Minister Roberta Pinotti said.
Giacomo Pratali

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France: from Postcolonialism to Nice

Policy/Politics di

Nice is the umpteenth terrorist attack in France. This Islamist offensive concerns all Europe. Within Paris attacks on January and November 2015, about 230 people were killed in the last one year and half. So, it’s indispensable to clarify why France became an ISIS recurring target and observe the French military interventionism.

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Excepting Iraq and Syria, France conducted its military operations in Africa in the last five years: Libya, Mali, Chad, Niger, Mauritania, Burkina Faso and Central African Republic. Colonialist past produce an effect on Hollande current foreign policy. 19,000 soldiers in all external operations, 10,000 troops in internal one (Operation Sentinel): nearly 30,000 French troops are active against terrorism and in several crisis contexts.

Air-bombs on Syria were the reaction after November 2015. At the same time, terrorist actions between January 2015 and July 2016 are not only an Islamist reaction headed by Daesh top brass. They hide a deep-rooted conflict which begins during the Postcolonialism in the 1950s.

Indeed, after the Second World War, a lot of French operations took place in Middle East and in former African colonies as Benin, Republic of Congo, Ivory Coast, Guinea or Djibouti. OAS (Organisation de l’armée secrète), PLF (Palestinian Liberation Front), Hezbollah, Armed Islamic Group of Algeria, ISIS: about 320 people killed by terrorism since 1950s.

Algerian question, Israel-Palestine conflict, French integration policy, Postcolonialism strategy are the most important reason of several terrorism attacks until 2000s. Now, the last two causes are interconnected with ISIS issue.

So, the fundamentalism becomes a social revenge of socially excluded young Muslims, how Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron told Canal Plus television after the Nov. 13 attacks in Paris: “Exclusion is a fact of life in France. I am not saying that this explains or excuses what has happened, but those young people who have been radicalized … often have no more faith in society.”
Giacomo Pratali

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Egitto: torture e sparizioni, la denuncia di Amnesty

Medio oriente – Africa/Report di

L’eco della vicenda legata a Giulio Regeni non si è ancora spenta. La sorte dello studente italiano, torturato e ucciso ad inizio 2016 dalle forze di polizia egiziane, è solo la punta dell’iceberg di un sistema che ha cambiato presidente, da Mubarak ad al Sisi, ma non è cambiato nella sostanza. Arresti arbitrari, detenzioni, sparizioni forzate persino di minori, torture con la complicità dei pubblici ministeri: è questo l’esito del report “Ufficialmente non esisti” pubblicato da Amnesty International il 13 luglio 2016.

Il rapporto di Amnesty si sofferma sulla escalation della repressione da parte del presidente al Sisi a partire dalla defenestrazione di Morsi nel luglio 2013: “Decine di migliaia di persone sono state detenute senza processo o condannate a pene detentive o di morte, molte dopo processi gravemente iniqui – si legge nel rapporto -. L’organizzazione della Fratellanza musulmana (MB), precedentemente messa al bando da Hosni Mubarak e strettamente legata al Partito della libertà e della giustizia (il ramo politico della MB in Egitto), è stata bandita e riconosciuta come organizzazione “terroristica” da parte delle autorità”.

“Negli ultimi diciotto mesi un nuovo modello di violazione dei diritti umani è diventato sempre più evidente in Egitto. Centinaia di attivisti e manifestanti politici, tra cui studenti, bambini e altri, sono stati arbitrariamente arrestati o rapiti dalle loro case o dalle strade e sottoposti a periodi di sparizione forzata da parte di agenti statali”.

 
Da SSI a NSA: nulla cambia con al Sisi
La violenta ascesa al potere di al Sisi coincide con il ripristino delle vecchie abitudini di persecuzione portate avanti dal predecessore Mubarak. Gli agenti del SSI (Servizi d’indagine per la sicurezza dello stato), bersaglio della Rivoluzione Egiziana del 2011, passano in larga parte alla NSA (Agenzia per la sicurezza nazionale): “La NSA è diventata la principale agenzia responsabile di arresti illegittimi o arbitrari, detenzioni e sparizioni forzate da quando il presidente al-Sisi ha nominato Magdy Abdel-Ghaffar, un ex alto ufficiale sia ai SSI sia alla NSA, ministro dell’Interno nel marzo del 201512 . Secondo gli avvocati delle vittime di sparizioni forzate e altri crimini, il ministro dell’Interno sembra aver adottato quella che essi descrivono come ‘una mentalità da NSA’ in virtù della quale la NSA ha praticamente carta bianca nel prendere di mira coloro che ritiene siano collegati alla Fratellanza musulmana o simpatizzanti di Mohamed Morsi e che potrebbero organizzare proteste o altre azioni contro il governo e di fatto le è consentito di non rispettare la legge e di commettere abusi impunemente”.

 
Arresti e detenzioni: le cifre
“Secondo il governo, le forze di sicurezza hanno arrestato quasi 22.00013 sospetti nel 2013 e nel 2014, compresi circa 3.000 leader e membri della Fratellanza musulmana di livello alto e intermedio14. Nel 2015, secondo il ministero dell’interno, le forze di sicurezza hanno arrestato quasi altri 12.000 sospetti,15 per lo più membri della Fratellanza musulmana e sostenitori di Mohamed Morsi, compresi studenti, accademici, ingegneri, medici, operatori sanitari e altri. Altre centinaia di persone sono detenute dopo essere state condannate a morte, tra cui l’ex-Presidente Mohamed Morsi, i suoi sostenitori e capi della Fratellanza musulmana”.

Ma un capitolo a parte è da riservare alle sparizioni forzate, definitE dalla Convenzione ONU del dicembre 2006 come “l’arresto, la detenzione, il sequestro o qualsiasi altra forma di privazione della libertà che sia opera di agenti dello Stato o di persone o di gruppi di persone che agiscono con l’autorizzazione, l’appoggio o la acquiescenza dello Stato, seguita dal rifiuto di riconoscere tale privazione della libertà o dall’occultamento della sorte riservata alla persona scomparsa e del luogo in cui questa si trova, sottraendola così alla protezione della legge”.
Il tema delle sparizioni forzate ha coinvolto sia maggiorenni sia minorenni, sottratti, in alcuni casi, anche due volte dalle loro famiglie.

Amnesty International “non è in grado di stabilire il numero esatto di vittime di sparizioni forzate ad opera delle autorità egiziane dall’inizio del 2015, né è possibile specificarne la cifra attuale. Per loro natura, i casi di sparizioni forzate sono particolarmente difficili da identificare e documentare a causa del segreto d’ufficio che li circonda e per il timore di alcune famiglie di esporre involontariamente i detenuti a un pericolo maggiore denunciandone la sparizione forzata a Ong per i diritti umani, ai media o ad altri. Tuttavia, alla luce della documentazione e dei dati forniti da diverse Ong e gruppi per i diritti egiziani, è evidente che diverse centinaia di egiziani siano stati vittime di questa pratica fin dall’inizio del 2015, con una media di tre-quattro persone oggetto di sparizione forzata ogni giorno a partire dall’inizio del 2015. L’NSA generalmente prende di mira presunti sostenitori di Morsi e/o della Fratellanza musulmana; la maggior parte dei quali di sesso maschile, con età compresa tra i 50 e i 14 anni. Si tratta principalmente di studenti, accademici, attivisti, critici pacifici e manifestanti, ma anche familiari di persone che vengono considerate ostili al governo. Diversi avvocati hanno riferito ad Amnesty International che quasi il 90% di chi scompare alla fine viene processato attraverso il sistema di giustizia penale”.

Tra i molti casi denunciati all’interno del report, uno dei più emblematici riguarda la famiglia Farag, dove padre e figlio sono stati sequestrati per oltre 150 giorni: “Dopo aver bendato e ammanettato Atef Farag e quattro dei suoi figli che erano in casa, gli agenti della Nsa interrogarono i figli sulle loro attività religiose, chiedendo tra l’altro quali moschee frequentassero, e quindi fecero salire Atef Farag e suo figlio Yehia su un pulmino bianco senza targa e partirono verso una destinazione che si rifiutarono di rivelare”.

E ancora: “In una comunicazione del 16 novembre 2015, la polizia rese noto al procuratore che Atef e Yehia Farag erano trattenuti dalla Nsa, eppure il rapporto investigativo ufficiale della Nsa presentato quando i due uomini apparvero per la prima volta dinanzi al procuratore per la sicurezza di stato il 3 gennaio 2016 indicava come data di arresto il 2 gennaio 2016, affermando che essi avevano trascorso solo 24 ore in stato di detenzione prima dell’interrogatorio del procuratore, mentre in realtà erano nelle mani della Nsa da più di 150 giorni. Dopo averli interrogati, il procuratore per la sicurezza di stato li ha formalmente accusati e ne ha autorizzato la detenzione per 15 giorni, in seguito più volte rinnovata. A luglio 2016, sono entrambi rinchiusi nel carcere di Tora Istiqbal in attesa di giudizio”.

 
Ripetute violazioni dei diritti umani
“Diversi metodi di tortura vengono descritti dalle vittime e dai testimoni, tra cui l’applicazione di scariche elettriche sulle aree sensibili del corpo, come genitali, labbra, orecchie e denti, la sospensione prolungata per gli arti, abusi sessuali, tra cui stupro, percosse e minacce. Alcuni detenuti hanno descritto di essere stati sottoposti alla posizione della “griglia”: fatti ruotare mentre avevano una barra inserita tra le braccia e le gambe legate, tenuti in equilibrio tra due sedie. Molti di questi metodi di tortura sono gli stessi o simili a quelli usati dai Ssi contro i detenuti durante gli anni di Mubarak”.

 
Conclusioni
Quello che è evidente è che esiste un sistema, quello giuridico-istituzionale, ben lontano non solo da quella secolarizzazione chiesta da gran parte della popolazione nel 2011, ma dal rispetto dei più basilari diritti sanciti a livello internazionale. Così come la separazione tra il potere esecutivo e quello giudiziario, messa nero su bianco sulla costituzione, ma smentita nei fatti: “L’insabbiamento da parte dei procuratori delle violazioni commesse dalla NSA è dovuta alla mancanza di indipendenza dell’ufficio del Pubblico ministero dal potere esecutivo”.

La richiesta di Amnesty International e di altre ONG al presidente egiziano al Sisi di fermare il ricorso alle sparizioni forzate e alle torture probabilmente non troverà riscontro. Il ruolo geopoliticamente cruciale de Il Cairo, storico sul fronte israeliano, di stretta attualità sul fronte libico, ha influenzato e continuerà ad influenzare gli attori internazionali, in primis quelli europei.

Se il caso Regeni ha raffreddato i rapporti con Roma, con Parigi, in questa prima parte di 2016, i rapporti economici e militari si sono più che rafforzati, anche e soprattutto in chiave libica: il sostegno francese ufficiale al governo Serraj va di pari passo con l’appoggio di una parte delle forze speciali transalpine all’azione del generale Haftar e del suo partner estero principale, l’Egitto, contro lo Stato Islamico.

Ukraine: how long before the next talks?

Politics di

EU extension of sanctions against Russia is only the last chapter of the Ukrainian crisis. As appeared in the latest months, the ceasefire between Kiev and sepatists looks like a band-aid.

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The EU ambassadors from the 28 member states approved on June 21 to prolong the sanctions against Moscow until 31 January 2017. Main justifications are two: annexation of Crimea and presence in Ukraine.

Despite it’s approved unanimously, a part of Western public opinion, but also Italy, Hungary and Greece do not shared this choice. Indeed, Russia is a strategic partner in Syria against Islamic State; but also from economical viewpoint, because of several European partnerships with Moscow.

Putin trip in China on June 22, come on the heels of European sanctions, demonstrated the will to find new economical and financial partners after more than two years of sanctions. As noted by Mark McNamee, Central and Eastern Europe analyst at Frontier Strategy Group at CNBC, “Strengthening energy ties with China and India would serve Putin’s geopolitical interests further, while also stealing market share from the Saudis. In economic terms, other than energy, Russia is unable to offer much of anything to China. Of far more importance is the political support Russia offers, regarding foreign policy matters at the United Nations, Group of 20 and other venues … China, naturally, is happy to have a useful ally as it seeks to reform the existing U.S.-led order to attain its geopolitical goals. ”

“It’s clear that for the changes to be made to the constitution, preliminary conditions must be met. Russian forces must be withdrawn from Ukraine,” Poroshenko told French television. While Moscow continues to turn down every charges.

Meanwhile, the ceasefire in Ukraine is falsely going on, as demonstrated by 3 Ukrainian soldiers killed on June 18 or by the dreadful video, reported by Daily Mail, which shows Ukrainian soldiers burying alive a sepatist. And the large number of tanks in Donbass means that civil war has not already finished.

So, after Minsk II, new talks are very necessary. Islamic issue and an updated fair-trade between EU and Russia are the two main questions for International Community.
Giacomo Pratali

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Brazil: Olympics 2016, a bloodbath

Americas/BreakingNews @en di

“When Rio was awarded the 2016 Olympic Games in 2009, authorities promised to improve security for all. Instead, we have seen 2,500 people killed by police since then in the city and very little justice,” said Atila Roque, Director at Amnesty International Brazil in Amnesty International’s report about Brasil published on. A report which examined the new wave of police violence after that the same context came first the 2014 FIFA World Cup.

“In the last 7 years, Rio’s security forces have killed over 2,500 people in the city. Over 100 people have been killed by police in Rio de Janeiro state so far this year. The majority: young black men”. Brasil that, as remembered by Amnesty, has “the highest number of homicides in the world – some 60,000 murders a year. But thousands of those killings are carried out by the police, with almost no accountability whatsoever. “ But 1 of 5 homicides was committed in Rio. “So far in 2016, more than 100 people have been killed in the city of Rio de Janeiro. “

 

 
2014 FIFA World Cup
“In the run-up to the 2014 FIFA World Cup, human rights were increasingly restricted and violated by Brazilian security forces. Since 2013, police forces across Brazil have used unnecessary and excessive force to disperse mostly peaceful protests, including through the abuse of so-called “less lethal” weapons, that resulted in hundreds of people being injured and arbitrarily detained, among them journalists and media activists. The use of the military to undertake tasks relating to public safety and policing of demonstrations – including an operation in the Maré Complex favelas from April 2014 to June 2015 – has also resulted in a series of human rights violations. Government officials have announced a plan to implement a similar model of security operations during the Rio 2016 Olympics, raising concerns about the security and integrity of peaceful protesters and of those living in communities where the military is expected to be deployed, particularly in marginalized areas and favelas. “

 

 
The beginning of 2016
As in the previous seven years, police homicides in Rio have not still stopped. “When comparing the first four months of 2016 with the same period in the previous year, there is a decrease of 8.5% in the number of cases of homicides resulting from police interventions in the state of Rio de Janeiro and a decrease of 13.9% in the city of Rio de Janeiro. The decrease happened mostly in the months of January and February, but more recent data shows that this trend is not guaranteed for the months ahead. The month of April 2016 already presents a significant increase when compared with the previous year, which raises serious concerns about the upcoming months. In the last trimester of 2015, the Military Police in Rio de Janeiro began implementing the programme to control the use of force with the main objective of reducing the use of firearms and lethal force during police operations and thus, the number of people killed. The program is intended to identify police units and specific officers with the highest records of use of firearms to undergo training. The General Commander of the Military Police has claimed that, after a few months, positive impacts can already be seen. However, a more detailed analysis is needed to properly understand the reasons for the decreasing numbers of people killed by police and to ensure this trend will continue throughout 2016. “

 

 
Conclusions
Brazil security context is not improving, as proved by four most important information:
– During 2016, the police were responsible for over 100 people killed in the city of Rio de Janeiro.
– In the first three weeks of April 2016, at least 11 people were killed during police operations.
– Compared to 2013, in 2015 the murders as a result of intervention by the police in Rio was increased by 54%.
– 77% of young men killed was black.

“With two months to go until the Olympics 2016, there is still time to put in place measures to mitigate the risk of human rights violations and establish accountability mechanisms for those responsible for committing human rights violations. “, Amnesty report ended.

Libya: with Serraj or Haftar?

Middle East - Africa di

Several influences composed the current Libyan context. The war against Daesh and the possible international military operation on the ground, under Italy leadership as attested by the US Secretary of State John Kerry and the US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Joseph Dunford, are two geopolitical variables that could intersect in the near future.

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“We have no links with Mr Serraj and the Presidential Council which he leads is not recognised by the parliament (in the east),” Haftar told i-Tele news channel in an interview in Libya. “Daesh does not have the capacity to face the Libyan armed forces, but the battle could take time. ” It’s what Geneal Khalifa Haftar said in an interview on May 20 and confirmed in following ones. So, Serraj’s visit in Egypt, the main Haftar’s sponsor, on May 26 could be determining to a possible coalition between GNA and Tobruk, which are fighting ISIS nearby Sirte.

So, the Libyan context is not going anywhere. Tobruk parliament has not already voted for GNA. On the other hand, on May 17 asked International Community for help Libya by engaging with the legitimate institutions in accordance with the political agreement. While, on May 8, he said that “”It doesn’t make sense that the international community supports our war against terrorism, and forbids us from arming ourselves.”

“We are ready to respond to the Libyan government’s requests for training and equipping the presidential guard and vetted forces from throughout Libya. The government of national accord has voiced its intention to submit appropriate arms embargo exemption requests to the UN Libya sanctions committee to procure necessary lethal arms and materiel to counter UN-designated terrorist groups and to combat Daesh throughout the country. We will fully support these efforts while continuing to reinforce the UN arms embargo,” UK Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond.

Just as Italian Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni, who supposed a military support only after “we will try to reinforce the political accord, to fight against ISIS, including General Haftar, but the full recognition is needed”. While, during the meeting in Rome with GNA Foreign Minister Mohamed Siala, discussed about migration control and “the possibility of reactivating the tools set out in the 2008 friendship pact as soon as possible,” Italian government said in a statement.
Military context
GNA and Misrata militias from the South and the West; Haftar’s troops from the East. The siege of Sirte, ISIS stronghold in Libya, is underway. A military context which is causing two consequences. The first one, Western countries special forces, already on the ground since at least two months, are supervising by both and monitoring Libyan progress and Haftar’s reliability if GNA will fail. The second one, the first ISIS internal divisions caused as reported by Libyan online magazine al Wasat.

So, the next few weeks will be crucial for Libyan destiny. The pressure of United States, United Kingdom and France on Italy for an immediate military operation on the ground will particularly depend from result of war of GNA and Tobruk troops against Islamic State: therefore, General Khalifa Haftar is not still out of running.
Giacomo Pratali

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