A new ceasefire (repeatedly violated), as in 1994, but not a peace treaty. It’s the current situation concerning Nagorno-Karabakh, which is involving not only the two principal players, Armenia and Azerbaijan, but also Russia, Turkey, United States and France from a diplomatic viewpoint.
The ceasefire on April 5 is barely standing. The largest escalation of cruelty since 1994 is staggering. And the last Armenian government approval of a draft bill recognizing the Nagorno-Karabakh region’s independence is meddling negotiation on Nagorno-Karabakh war, mediated by OSCE Minsk Group and chaired by United States, Russia and France.
Beyond military perspective, several diplomatic works are very recurring during the last months. From meeting between Russian president Dmitri Medvedev with Armenian and Azerbaijan heads and summit between U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian foreign minister Sergej Lavrov, up till talks between Istanbul and Baku.
A lot of geopolitical perspectives are crossing. For example, peace talks are influenced by awful relationships between Turkey and Russia, which accused Istanbul of supplying weapons to Azerbaijan army. This context is almost neutralizing OSCE efforts. So diplomatic works are producing little progresses.
The charge that Azerbaijani forces have violated the ceasefire in the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh early on April 4 from Nagorno-Karabakh Republic Defense minister show that Baku strategy is working. Indeed, Azerbaijan is attracting international attetion to reach a positive deal. On the other hand, Armenia wants to maintain this regional order and shouldn’t want to make too many concessions under Russian and OSCE pressure.
Other geopolitic crisis could cause a reduction of international attention on Nagorno-Karabakh. This could mean that Russia and, in a part, Turkey could not be interested to change actual situation and continue to influence the Caucasus region.