Ukraine, waiting for Minsk

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Germany and France try to dialogue with Russia. In opposive direction to Minsk meeting scheduled for 11st February, Putin remains in his position while Nato has announced to strengthen its defences.

Looking forward Minsk meeting between Merkel, Hollande, Poroshenko and Putin scheduled for 11st February, three geopolitical players’ group is playing on Ukrainian table. The first one puts together Usa (Nato) and Eastern Europe countries as Bulgaria, Romania, Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. The second one includes Russia. The last one consists of Germany, France, Italy and Great Britain.

The civil war between Ukrainian army and pro-Russian has produced several killed every day from January, when the situation has started to get worse. While Putin is still accused of helping separatists with armaments, troops and financial support, Usa and Ue are thinking to increase economical sanctions and to widen russian oligarchs black list.

But some European countries and Nato are also devising two different solutions to conflict resolution. Merkel and Hollande, on behalf of majority of Ue, are convinced that the dialogue with Putin is the true way. Instead, Nato has announced to establish six command and control units in Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Romania and to strengthen its defences on 5th February: “The enhanced NATO Response Force will count up to around 30,000 troops”, said Secretary General Stoltenberg.

The next meeting on 11st February will be a critical moment for the destiny of Ukrainian civil war. Three different point of views on the table. Franco-German initiative is based on Minsk Pact: separatists must immediately call back troops, Moscow must immediately recall its armaments, the immediate creation of a humanitarian corridor, openness to Donbass region partial autonomy.

Conversely, Putin and Poroshenko have different sights. The first one wants to respect Crimea, Donetsk and Lugansk republics complete independence. The second one wants to protect Ukrainian national unity and has often asked Obama a military support to fight separatists, but President of United States is hesitating about it.

However, we have to remind that Ukranian crisis is still a continuation of Cold War. So Washington and Moscow must return to talk about a common geopolitical strategy together. Obama’s “Atlantic” interest and Putin Eastern Europe gain must necessarily meet.

Giacomo Pratali

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